When Luck Runs Out

What He Said 214 Comments

At the Belmont Club, a lengthy list of the close calls INIFIL had already suffered due to their proximity with Hezbollah installations;

All the incidents of IDF fire reported in the press releases are clearly related to some kind of nearby combat with the Hezbollah. In one case the IDF fired on a village into which the UNIFIL had gone, but rockets had originated from the vicinity of the village prior. In another case, an Israeli aerial bombardment detonated mines all around a UNIFIL position. Those mines were presumably not planted by UNIFIL, but they were so close to it that the UN position caught fire. The UN observation post in Maroun al-Ras was hit by artillery, but we know from press reports that Maroun al-Ras was the epicenter of heavy fighting and the location of a Hezbollah bunker complex. The UN even ran a convoy from the Hezbollah “capital” of Bint Jubayl to another area. Bint Jubayl is well known to be the target of an IDF attack. Yet the UN felt that it was possible to move convoys through such areas, albeit at considerable danger.
One reason that they could was that UNIFIL was evidently in contact with the IDF. In a sentence which speaks volumes we learn that “One unarmed UN military observer, a member of the Observer Group Lebanon (OGL), was seriously wounded by small arms fire in the patrol base in the Marun Al Ras area yesterday afternoon. According to preliminary reports, the fire originated from the Hezbollah side during an exchange with the IDF. He was evacuated by the UN to the Israeli side, from where he was taken by an IDF ambulance helicopter to a hospital in Haifa.” This strongly implies that UNFIL was able to coordinate their movements with the IDF and that the IDF was willing to risk men and aircraft to help UNFIL.
Now a lot will be made of UN positions being “clearly marked”. However nearly all of the fire reported on UN positions with the exception of the July 23 indicident in Kiyam, where the 4 UN observers were killed today, were from artillery, which is an area weapon. Artillery, depending on the angle and range from which it is fired, has a certain dispersion even allowing for crew perfection. (In contrast UNIFIL took small arms fire from the Hezbollah between Kunin and Bint Jubayl and small arms can only be used when visual contact is made). Imperfections in shell manufacture, operator error, barrel wear etc can cause an artillery round to fall off target. It is not called an area weapon for nothing.
[…]
Their positions are manifestly so close to the Hezbollah; their convoys so at risk at being confused with mobile Hezbollah forces that only by the grace of God and the accuracy of the IDF have fatalities been avoided until now. They were willing to take the risk. Annan was willing to make the hay.You be the judge of Kofi Annan’s competence both in the care of his men and with respect to the accusation he has made against the IDF.

An interview with Lew McKenzie has more. (ram file) – an exerpt;

We received emails from him a few days ago, and he was describing the fact that he was taking fire within, in one case, three meters of his position for tactical necessity, not being targeted. Now that’s veiled speech in the military. What he was telling us was Hezbollah soldiers were all over his position and the IDF were targeting them. And that’s a favorite trick by people who don’t have representation in the UN. They use the UN as shields knowing that they can’t be punished for it.

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214 Replies to “When Luck Runs Out”

  2. So, 425 Lebanese confirmed dead. With many bodies yet to be recovered from the rubble, it looks like the numbers going to rise. Vast majority of them are civilians. The toll for Irael is 51 dead – 18 civilians.
    Between the killing of UN observers and the skyrocketing civilian deathtoll, I wouldnt be surprised if Israel does succeed in dismantling Hezbollah. But even then I doubt its going to be worthwhile. The death of 425 citizens is going to galvanise a whole lot of people who have lost everything in this conflict. And public opinion is especially in the Arab world is so anti-Israel, that it might galvanise a whole slew of new recruits who might otherwise have done little more than complain. Conflicts like these galvanise a lot of folk who would have otherwise been quite content to continue with their lives instead of reaching for arms. That America has lost its status as a honest broker in the eyes of the Arab world goes without saying.
    Israel may win this battle but it has jeopardised a lot in the long term. If you think I m just bullshitting, then put yourself in the Lebanese position. Try and imagine losing your son/daughter/brother/sister/parent/grandparent, along with everyhting you own, and tell me that you will not vow revenge.
    Its easy to believe that the Lebanese will blame the Hizbollah and not Israel. While they will almost definitely turn on the Hizbollah, they are not going to forgive the Israelis. While we can celebrate the dismatnling of the Hizbollah, we should also remember that we have probably set up a whole new legion of martyrs who will eventually build up the expertise of the Hizbollah. Maybe not in the next decade, but in the long term they will replace Hizbollah. Israel has won a short term victory, not a long term one.
    If you think what I m saying is inconcievable, then welcome to the world of idealism.

  3. Hmm…
    If Israel does react, it will face attacks from Hezbollah.
    If Israel doesn’t react, it will face attacks from Hezbollah.
    If Israel does react, it will face scorn from the international community.
    If Israel doesn’t react, it will face scorn from the international community.
    Tough choices!

  4. the idf genocide in lebanon is proceeding rather lamely considering its ruthless execution against the noble resistance and the innocent civilians and u.n observers and forces around whom said resistance clings so closely when firing.
    at a rate of about 25 per day it will take the idf about 10,000 years to approach the numbers attained by their catchy new namesakes as characterized by the left.
    anyway, the idf is barely doing better than the heat in california. and they have ac, wait til we see the totals from france. http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyid=2006-07-28T221816Z_01_N28237050_RTRUKOC_0_US-LIFE-CALIFORNIA-HEATWAVE.xml&src=rss&rpc=22
    oops, i guess that is probably the jew managed global warming so it’s 6 of 1.

  6. Strange how lefty’s [sic], attempting to prove their moral superiority, never fail to pull out the race card.
    And perhaps not so strange how right-wingers, attempting to prove their moral superiority, never fail to pull out the “anti-Semitic” nonsense. You can find that right here on this blog.

  7. “God I hope the next prime minister is an NDPer.”
    Nurse, nurse! This patient needs his meds increased again.

  8. Cindy Sheehan is at it again.
    http://radioblogger.com/#001540
    Only this time her real allegance comes out:
    Secretary of State Cindy Sheehan???
    You know, they never have to think of the war, and I’ll never, ever forget this war. I can never forget it, even when I’m sleeping {tears} I know that we’re in a war and I know that George Bush and his band of neo-cons (the Jews) and their neo-con (the Jews) agenda killed my son. And I’ll never, ever, ever forget.
    From the same speech:
    9/11 was their Pearl Harbor to get their neo-con (the Jews) agenda through and, if I would have known that before my son was killed, I would have taken him to Canada.

  9. Cindy Sheehan is at it again.
    http://radioblogger.com/#001540
    Only this time her real allegance comes out:
    Secretary of State Cindy Sheehan???
    You know, they never have to think of the war, and I’ll never, ever forget this war. I can never forget it, even when I’m sleeping {tears} I know that we’re in a war and I know that George Bush and his band of neo-cons (the Jews) and their neo-con (the Jews) agenda killed my son. And I’ll never, ever, ever forget.
    From the same speech:
    9/11 was their Pearl Harbor to get their neo-con (the Jews) agenda through and, if I would have known that before my son was killed, I would have taken him to Canada.

  10. Cindy Sheehan is at it again.
    http://radioblogger.com/#001540
    Only this time her real allegance comes out:
    Secretary of State Cindy Sheehan???
    You know, they never have to think of the war, and I’ll never, ever forget this war. I can never forget it, even when I’m sleeping {tears} I know that we’re in a war and I know that George Bush and his band of neo-cons (the Jews) and their neo-con (the Jews) agenda killed my son. And I’ll never, ever, ever forget.
    From the same speech:
    9/11 was their Pearl Harbor to get their neo-con (the Jews) agenda through and, if I would have known that before my son was killed, I would have taken him to Canada.

  11. Vivid Nightmare,
    that is quite the link to a propaganda cesspool. Having followed it, I then googled the mentioned Sheehan missives. Now I am perplexed to see that Cindy Sheehan did not – not even once – use the “Neo-Con (the Jews)” equation cited so often and with emphasis in the Radio Blogger link.
    I know, Radio Blogger is only trying to make things real easy for us to understand. Or rather, he is trying to help us understand what he would like us to understand. Really great propaganda blogging, old Dr. Goebbels wine in “new media” bottles, really cool Kool-aid.

  12. Funny how my point about playing the “anti-Semite” card was reinforced so soon after my last post, and in triplicate, too.
    The origin of the Sheehan-as-anti-Semite canard was FrontPageMag some time ago. If people want to equate “neo-Con” with “the Jews,” I guess that’s up to them, but there’s no evidence, as agitfact says, that Sheehan did it. I dealt with the FPM article here.

  13. “Secretary of State Cindy Sheehan??? ”
    No. No. Its Secretary of State Tony Blair.

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