A Niall Ferguson smackdown.
h/t Ward
Nic Robertson’s 0-for-2: “Well, my message to President Obama is just, “We started this revolution without any outside help, and we are going to finish it also without any outside help.” (h/t Lev)
You say you want a revolution?
Another consistent feature is that revolutions take place, not in the most repressive of tyrannies, but more typically in despotisms whose grip is already loosening, and where both a degree of economic prosperity and liberalization are already taking place. The administration of Louis XVI was the most liberal and reformist ever known in France; it attempted to introduce a free market system and break the economic hold of the aristocracy over the masses. Similarly, Tsar Nicholas II alternated between harsh repression and encouraging the Duma to share power with the crown; during his reign, the Russian economy was one of the fastest growing in Europe, reaching levels in agricultural production that Nikita Krushchev conceded in 1956 had still not been equaled.
In the case of Egypt under Mubarak, the outbreak against his rule was preceded by a period in which modest progress was being made in Egypt’s economic prospects and standard of living, due to a small amount of oil, a lot of tourism, and increasing foreign investment. This year the economy grew by a robust 6%. Ditto in Iran, where the Shah was committed to political and economic Westernization and secularization. Ditto in Russia, where Gorbachev’s toppling of the Soviet regime was preceded by the Brezhnev era in which Russians were finally tasting some solid economic benefits.
Common to these cases is Toqueville’s thesis of the revolution of rising expectations. Fitful and semi-effective autocratic reformers whet people’s hopes for a better future, but cannot satisfy the expectations they arouse. Their own semi-effective reforms unleash the forces that overthrow them. Then the liberal reform regime is in turn swept away by the true revolutionaries, who do not want a liberal “bourgeois” revolution like the American revolution, but want to revoke both traditional authority and the half-completed modernization in favor of a populist collective.
During the flash point that signals the downfall of the autocrat, there is often a moment of truth when it becomes clear that the autocrat’s own allies, especially the military, will not take the extreme measures necessary to crush the revolt, and tell the autocrat they will not fire on the people. This happened with Louis XVI, the Tsar and the Shah. In the case of Gorbachev, he himself refused to use the Soviet military and security services to halt the out-of-control pace of his own reforms. And now Mubarak, whose generals told him the same thing, finally easing him out. In contrast, determined tyrannies like the Soviet Union under Lenin and Stalin will methodically kill tens of thousands of people until rebellion is crushed (for example., the Kronstadt rebellion). Currently, Syria exudes the silence of the grave as popular uprisings flair nearby, a sign of how grimly effective its tyranny is. And, since there is no television footage, no one calls for the demise of this far more lethal regime.
Well, I quite enjoyed that smack down. It is so refreshing when the MSN gets a schooling on current events and their so-called leader. I agree 100%, putting a man with little or no experience in power was a huge mistake.
He nailed that one. ‘bama is the prince of platitudes. Our own Justin T., the princess…
Revolution succeeds when the ruling class loses its nerve. Just because it’s composed of useless and worse-than-useless hereditary degenerates and idiots doesn’t guarantee it will.
I’m half way through Nial Ferguson’s ‘War of the Worlds’ which is fascinating. I find it hard to believe that USA intelligence is not providing Obama with a broad basket of sceanarios of what could happen in Egypt. Whether he listens to them or not is certainly up for debate. The man strikes me as a career talking head without much substance aka Jimmy Carter.
It is to the credit of SDA and its commentators, that the interviewee follows the sentiments expressed here over and over. You may say that the SDA commentators are just slightly ahead of our time, heh. Maybe the “journalist” should pay more attention to the bloggers than to the MSNBC ideologues that guide her questioning.
The “journalist” seems to live in never, never land of Obamania without any regard for realities of life.
Yesterday, Rush had similiar comment on how another American “journalist” with british accent run interference for the US President, in interviews with Achmed and Mustapha, “http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_021411/content/01125107.guest.html”
They keep telling the “journalist” that Obama had nothing to do with anything, that it was them, the Egyptians that started it and they will finish it, while the “journalist” constantly claiming that it was Obama that solved all the problems
The US President is drowning in total mismanagement in anything and everything that he is responsible for. The “journalists” are not helping anybody with their fawn.
It is only too bad that there are millions of people in the US that have only one source of information, not necessarily their fault, and don’t have wide view of things.
Very sad when even journalists abandon the teachings of history.
Corruption is so rampant, the MSM is just one of the hydra’s many heads. Totally unreliable and that includes FOX news which is a bit better because it sits behind a Conservative ideology, but still does not do enough hard investigative research and exposure IMO. There are simply too many things FOX are not touching like the Pigford mega scandal involving Obama or even a serious and thorough investigation about the persistent and ever growing Obama controversy of legitimacy to be POTUS: Give us a big special report and put this case to bed once and for all FOX…You can’t because you are going to hit a wall of obstruction from Obama’s legal team: AND THAT COULD BE A REPORT ON ITSELF. So, why don’t you just tell us that? They can’t even do that they are muzzled so bad.
FOX IS THE BEST OF THE ROTTEN AND I SUSPECT SUN NEWS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UP HERE EITHER.
Long live people like Breitbart.
Obama the empty suit. Will give another ah, er, let me be clear, er ah ah ah speech that says nothing of substance which will be repeated the next 24 hours by another ah, er, let me clear, ah er, ah speech going off in a totally different ah, er, ah, er direction. Let me be clear…
We have to learn to ignore small details. A speech here, an interview there, the odd video of a group of protestors, can influence your assessment of the situation. It’s better to look at historical data, the politics in play, and the overall conditions on the ground. All these indicators point to something completely opposite of a shiny new democracy.
Think about it, when’s the last time a US administration celebrated the military takeover of a functioning nation?
from Rush’s transcript, re Nic Robertson: “This guy’s lucky that he wasn’t tomatoed to death or pomegranated or dated, whatever they throw over there. Lucky he got his report out.”
Ha!
After Ferguson observes that Obama lacked any strategy or leadership on the crisis whatsoever – flipping and flopping,
Mika jumps in at 2:25
“Let me just challenge you on that…Flip followed by flop followed by flip seems to have worked doesn’t it?”
So Mika is now on record as defending the President of the United States “pulling a Homer” (to succeed despite idiocy) as good foreign policy.
Maybe she’ll applaud decisions made on coin tosses as sage strategery next.
That smack down of the twit on MSNBC was beautiful to hear and see. Niall Ferguson has a gift just like Nigel Farage when he told that Marxist bureaucrat van Rompey off. If only Canadians could hear someone like this smack down Taliban Jack and Mr. Iffy.
The Obama administration is pretty much zero in every area.
Mika has always come across to me as having a nice broadcasting voice, but not much going on upstairs. She always looks perplexed and out of the loop.
Bill Good, the talking head on CKNW, same thing. Too bad we can’t see his stunned face through the radio, because I’m sure that’s his expression 95% of the time.
imo It was PMSH’s comments that have solved the Egyptian crisis. That crisis of course being the Egyptian Gingivitis Crisis.
“FOX IS THE BEST OF THE ROTTEN AND I SUSPECT SUN NEWS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UP HERE EITHER.”
Yes, Terry, we’re all stupid here and you need to shout or we won’t understand. Seriously, STFU, or stop yelling.
Yes, the odds are in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood capturing power in Egypt. But can they hold it? Newell’s article sets up the problem:
” The initial, liberal revolution was sparked by people, especially educated young people, who had tasted a bit of economic and political modernization, but found that the regime could not deliver.”
and
“A senior member of the Brotherhood has already announced that their aim will be to “prepare the Egyptian people for war with Israel” and called for the Suez Canal to be closed so as to disrupt the West’s oil trade. Another announced that a newly elected legislature’s first duty will be to re-consider the peace treaty with Israel. As a matter of course, as soon as they can, the Brotherhood will terminate Egypt’s tourist industry, one of its chief sources of income and an employer of many of the people demonstrating in Cairo today,”
The Muslim Brotherhood will exacerbate the underlying problem – the young urban Egyptians frustration over poverty and liberty. A war, closing the Suez and ending tourism only increases poverty and frustration. And, from what I understand, the Egyptian government (due to subsidies on food and energy) has little room to maneuver economically. Besides, won’t a war decrease the numbers of loyal Islamists followers thereby increasing the proportion of the democratic forces?
The other wildcard is technology. Unlike the French Revolution or USSR, today’s communication allows for more effective protests and, by linking to the developed world, technology feeds the dreams of Muslims seeking material wealth and democracy.
Thanks Kate; Please continue with the task of keeping our thinking caps on. Cheer;
Part of the problem with MSM ‘journolists’ is that they think the Russian Revolution happened the way that Warren Beatty portrayed it in “REDS”, they didn’t take the real history in high school because it was an elective. In today’s history class substitute the Muslim Brotherhood for the Red Bolsheviks and you might get an idea of what we have to look forward too. The party that will emerge on top is the one that is the most ruthless and is willing to throw conventional dialogue, understanding, and tolerance to the dogs of war!
ot
Hey LC B, I quoted you yesterday. We were discussing my wife’s sister and her odd personality a few days back, and then you dropped this gem yesterday: “neurotic basket-case(s) with a huge victim’s complex.”
I swear man, you nailed my sister-in-law to a tee. My wife was telling me how a woman’s monthly cramps and pains are due to decades (or is it centuries) of male oppression over females(or so says her sister). BTW, she is one of those University Educated, degree toting types that work for their husbands as a secretary.
Mika Brzezinski is an affirmative action bimbo: she’s the daughter of Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was Carter’s National Security (sic) Advisor.
I’ve only seen YouTube clips of this woefully out of her depth Obama cheerleader: she’s not impressive, ever! (Well, she looks quite nice . . .)
LCB
All things being equal you are correct; but, all things are not equal as the article points out. In the scenario where the MB does take-over the determining factor will be: to what extent are the MB willing to go to maintain such power. As the article points-out, these revolutions happen because of the loosening of the reigns of the more liberal government (in this case Mubarak)and are inevitably replaced with a more controlling government who is likely willing to use the force that the predecessors were unwilling to use. That desire for liberty, and the motivation to protest will be greatly diminished if the likelihood of losing your life is great.
I am no expert in these matters; but, I am conditioned to expect the worst of this situation in Egypt. I predict that in a few years the Hannity’s will be saying “I told you so” and the ETs will conveniently forget their stance at the time.
All in all, this has been the Egyptians issue, and very little of what we say would make any difference. That said, I don’t think ANY of BO’s or HC’s comments have helped the situation at all. They’ve simply eliminated any misconceptions that they had any power in the first place regarding this issue.
All of that said, I disagree with you assessment that the people won’t stand for a MB theocracy. Yours and the belief of others that ‘college educated secular youths’ will somehow win the day is dreaming. THIS…is exactly the demographic that voted for our TOTUS.
I’ll throw my hat in with the small business people that came-out in support of Murbarak, stability, and the economy.JMO
btw, that’s a whole bunch of baffle gab for a Homie that admits he doesn’t know much about said issue eh? Oh well, ‘opinions and belly-buttons’ eh?
I just saw an article in the Globe and Mail. Apparently, big protests are underway in Iran and serious crackdowns are occurring. Apparently, Obama has said something (I don’t know what yet). All I know is that Iran is hard core and stuff here cannot be handled like in Egypt because of the nuttiness factor of the Iranian leaders.
You quoted me, Indy? That is very flattering, now I’m pissing off complete strangers. Great. BTW, how come you get to insult your in-laws? Is that allowed?
Sherlock, good points. I am not a middle east expert, either. In fact, prefer to be a math and science geek rather than a social science nerd. I also naturally tend towards cynicism and skepticism but, unlike most conservatives, I don’t see Murbarak’s ouster as the beginning of the end of the democratic movement in Egypt. Throughout the ME there seems to be a flirtation with the notion of secularism while still clinging onto old traditions (FGM) and hatreds (Israel).
I guess it will come down whether or not the MB’s brutality can permanently oppress its democratic rivals. Brutal oppression can only go so far before it meets resistance by its own supporters. For example, will the the military allow Saddam Hussein style torture chambers and mass executions? Will external forces assist the democratic secularists? Will the MB run out of money needed to prevent food and energy riots?
It is difficult for me to accept linear A->B type scenarios in chaotic systems. After all, a generation or so ago Egyptian women were freeing themselves from burquas only to see it return in the younger generation. If the culture can turn 180 degrees one way and then back once, then it is possible to do so again.
In answer to the question of can the Muslim Brotherhood take and hold power? Yes and yes. This is a country where female genital mutilation is the norm (9 out of 10?), that 1st cousin marriage is the norm, where taking up Christianity when you started out as Muslim is punishable by death. This is not Maine!!
Will they be able to keep power? Once the army and the Abrams tanks (don’t know which fire control system they have)and the rest of the top line US Military Weaponry become beholding to the MB, you’re darn right they’ll hold onto it. Add to those numbers the Islamic Militia that will be doing the dirty work, same as in Iran, and you’ve got a bit of an insight into a very likely scenario for modern Egypt.
The military wanted Mubarak out as he wanted to create a dynasty, from him to his son and on and on, instead of being promoted from the ranks of the military, as both Nasser and Mubarak were. The 300,000 strong demonstrations, in a city the size of Cairo? Small potatoes and allowed to happen because it suited the purposes of the military. Youth and students? Let them try that now and they’ll be dead youth and students?
I’m humbled by your pithiness LCB, and you’re not ‘pissing’ anyone off, it’s quite the contrary.
FYI, I fancy my wife as someone like Kate, and her sister is very much like the “basket cases” you mentioned. It’s no coincidence that there is a 15 year age difference and my in-laws POV. We have kids of the same age and we’ve observed drastic differences in the way we raise our children, the behavior of the children, and the overall happiness of the two women in question. WE… are very adamant about our kids being in competitive sports and working hard at it. We are very adamant about reading and make sure our kids do it. We are very adamant about ‘effort’ at all tasks and endeavors our kids partake in, we expect excellence. We smack(past tense) our kids when they need it(yet they are not violent to each other). The sis-in-law parents exactly in the opposite fashion. Her kids struggle in school, don’t win medals, are not approached by scouts and strangers and told what excellent kids they have, her kids are constantly assaulting each-other and their parents, and my sis-in-law is constantly looking for some new incite into parenting and life because she is always in the ‘victim-hood loop’ and for some reason is not satisfied with her life; yet she refuses to accept the successful model we’ve imposed; yet is constantly on the look for books that will tell her how to live her life.(BTW, they are much more financially secure then we are).
So, in private, we often discuss that family, how we are different and why. I suggested about a year ago that my sis-in-law was indoctrinated in the bra-burning feminism of the 70’s and 80’s and as a result is a “neurotic basket-case(s) with a huge victim’s complex.”, which I was vindicated for with the cramps=oppression discussion. Being half Indian she is also a victim of the ‘white man’ so she’s doubly screwed.
Ironically, she apparently was a gifted athlete in her hay-day, so we are puzzled as to why she doesn’t push her kids into that world. She is constantly complaining about how hectic her life is and how she couldn’t possibly commit to basketball practices and such; yet, she doesn’t have to deal with practices and such.
Now, she is upset with my wife because she told her that her son will never make a high school ball team because he hasn’t put the work-in over the years and it’s her fault. She takes great umbrage to the fact that others who are already good ball players will get that opportunity; and, her solution is for us to pull our kids out to even the field.
Sorry for the rant, but you asked.
Ahhh, I got it. Indiana Homez and Sherlock Homie are the same person. Sorry, I thought you were two separate people and two separate discussions.
Rant away.
LC
Point taken.
Where I seem to be at odds with the pundits is the ‘settled’ argument that a Secular society is what’s necessary for the good of the people. I’d argue (likely incorrectly) that a Christian Society similar to what we live in is completely necessary for the advances that we all wish Egypt and the ME will make. I believe it is a fallacy, and a BIG LIE that we live in a Secular society. IMO the separation of church and state does not a Secular society make.
Until these people find the Ten Commandments and incorporate them into their culture, they are hooped! The only thing preventing the chaos from ensuing in Egypt has been Mubarak and company. There is no precedent for the so called Secular society, nor any chance of success.
Our Christian society is the only society that allows people like me (atheist/agnostic) to live my Secular lifestyle. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING that Secular’s have done has done anything to advance the human condition. Honestly, Secularists have done the exact opposite if you look at history.
my bad LCB, Sometimes I change my nickname and forget to change it back.
Two separate conversations, one guy, many personalities, no meds.
“Sometimes I change my nickname and forget to change it back.”
At least you weren’t arguing with yourself. Although that might have been entertaining.
That’s OK, Indy. Maybe you’re one of those two-spirited types that you hear. Kidding.
I post under other names, too, but I never post under different names on the same site. Too confusing and, as you found out, has the potential to be embarrassing.
This is brilliant commentary, which I saw last night at Blazing Cat Fur and posted on yesterday’s Reader Tips.
‘Good thing Niall goes out with Aayan Hirsi Ali and that he’s a highly esteemed university prof. I wonder how the chattering classes will deal with what he has to say. ‘Most likely, like the msnbc bimbo who interviewed him. Her response was priceless: growing indignation and totally at a loss for words. You could tell she was thinking this guy’s a Neanderthal and, and, and, how dare he say the things he’s saying?
What a maroon.
‘Loved Ferguson’s comment on Obambam’s foreign policy failure: “flip followed by flop followed by flip.”
BIN-GO! 😉
To see the uncut version of this interview (11:34 minutes):
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/41577220#41577220
batb, see my post above re the blond bimbo. She always looks altogether indignant when “interviewing” anyone who doesn’t toe the lefty party line.
What an insane argument, made all the more lunatic in that it comes from the same crowd that continues to support and apologize for George W. Bush, that noted foreign policy expert who allowed 9/11 to happen on his watch after being forewarned, in writing, about it.
Two stunned Doo Doo birds bathing in the oily of aura of a Martinet named Obama. Singing his false praises. While in the presence of an intelligent Human being stating facts, waiting to become extinct while clubbed to death with reality.
The lost look at the end on their pitiable countenances. The minds of these tolls where left in the same state a stampede would. Muddy & empty. IT Was worth the whole viewing.
That was my take on the clip.
Citing historical facts?
That’s just crazy ……………………
Wow, what a great commentator Niall Ferguson is. Hard, truthful, factually based argument. How did he manage to get by the vetting process at MSNBC.
CrazyConservatives (‘you referring to us?): “What an insane argument …”
You’ll need to explain what you mean. And you’ll need to refer to Obambam’s foreign policy and what’s actually happening in Egypt (do you know?).
Leave George Dubbya out of it.
made all the more lunatic in that it comes from the same crowd that continues to support and apologize for George W. Bush,
Er, I’ve actually read a few of Niall Ferguson’s books and followed his career a bit. He is hardly an apologist for Bush.
You would know that,CC, if you knew the first thing about Niall Ferguson. But since when has being as ignorant as dirt ever hindered leftists from spewing their asinine dreck?
Try reading a few books, hon. I highly recommend Ferguson’s books “Empire” and “The War of the World.” I have also heard good things about his book about money, but since I have not read it, I am not going to express an opinion. Unlike you.
My, the leftists sure get butt-hurt when anybody dares to criticize Lord Barry Almighty.
While Mubarak did introduce some free market reforms in 2004, they did not go nearly far enough. It still takes >500 days to open a bakery because of the 56 government agencies and bribe-hungry beaurocrats in them needed for approval. It’s not hard to see why the Egyptians wanted him out; he was no Pinochet.
Didn’t Louis XVI run up a vast amount of debt in support of the US revolution, or was that his father? Either way, he jacked up taxes and again the fury of the people was totally justified.
I guess you just don’t get it, libertariansaresmarter: No one here is saying that Egypt was fortunate to have Mubarak as their leader — and neither was Ferguson.
What he’s saying, and most of us are saying, is that it’s a crap game how getting rid of Mubarak’s going to turn out — and for naive Westerners to be cheering and clapping and proclaiming victory in Egypt and kudos for Obambam because the protesters in the streets got Mubarak to leave, makes it clear that they don’t have a clue what could be coming down the pike.
It’s a bit like cheering that the Big Bad Wolf’s gone, while ignoring the horde of hyenas slavering in the long grass just waiting to pounce. What we’re saying, is that sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.
Those 500 days to open a bakery might be reduced under the new regime — or the wait time could get longer. The chances of bribes ending are just about nil, whoever forms the government and, if the Muslim Brotherhood manage to take over (they’ve now formed a political party, with the intention, obviously, not to lose the next election), there might not be a bakery at all or, if there is, there won’t be any women working in it — or anywhere.
Getting rid of Mubarak is just the beginning of a new set of problems for Egypt. Beware what you wish for — and protest in the streets for.
I believe the US sees all revolutions through the prism of their own. However, the big difference between theirs and all the others was that the core of their (American)revolution were made up of principled men who actually wanted a free and democratic society—very different from the monarchies that existed during the period. It is fortunate that none of America’s Founding Fathers wanted to replace the British monarchy with an American one. Furthermore, the population of the US at the time of the Revolution knew what a proper government looked like because their tradition was British–it is not an accident that the US government looks eerily similar to that of the British: Congress (House of Commons), Senate (House of Lords), President (monarch) and corollary is that British citizens are very law-abiding. Egypt and all the other mid-East nations (with the exception of Israel) have no historical culture of a democratic and law-abiding society. All of them were first ruled by a monarch and then by the Muslim Caliphate. Israel, on the other hand, was built by an influx of non-native (to the area) Jews who had lived in Europe and the United States, and they built their government to resemble the parliaments of Europe and the US. So I think it is quite naive for Westerners to believe that this revolution will end well or at least in a pluralistic, democratic society and government–because the society is Islamic (with no concept of democracy).
I just loved the looks of faux outrage and faux incredulity when Fergeson called Obama an amateur. They could hardly even fake it. It was lovely. ~:D
“happy clappy democracy’s”… best line ever.
Great site, becoming a regular visitor… Jeff
@batb: unless you’re psychic or you have superpowers to persuade the Egyptian populace to your viewpoint, I’d relax. Obama can’t be blamed for what he couldn’t control or foresee. Indeed, even the Israelis were caught of guard.
cytotoxic – did you watch the video? The Israelis were already war-gaming a “what if Mubarak gets overthrown” scenario a year ago.