With a totalitarian party to vote for – Moroccan Islamist Party latest to win election inspired by the Arab Spring
Caroline Glick;
Iranian-allied Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is purging the Iraqi military and security services and the Iraqi civil service of pro-Western, anti- Iranian commanders and senior officials. With American acquiescence, Maliki and his Shi’ite allies already managed to effectively overturn the March 2010 election results. Those elections gave the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya party led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi the right to form the next government.
Due to Maliki’s actions, Iraq’s Sunnis are becoming convinced they have little to gain from peacefully accepting the government.
The strategic implications of Maliki’s purges are clear. As the US departs the country next month it will be handing its hard-won victory in Iraq to its greatest regional foe – Iran.
Repeating their behavior in the aftermath of Israel’s precipitous withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000, the Iranians and their Hezbollah proxies are presenting the US withdrawal from Iraq as a massive strategic victory.
They are also inventing the rationale for continued war against the retreating Americans. Iran’s Hezbollah-trained proxy, Muqtada al-Sadr, has declared that US Embassy personnel are an “occupation force” that the Iraqis should rightly attack with the aim of defeating.
The US public’s ignorance of the implications of a post-withdrawal, Iranian-dominated Iraq is not surprising. The Obama administration has ignored them and the media have largely followed the administration’s lead in underplaying them.
The planet’s in the very best of hands.
h/t Larry
It looks like Iraq will flip back into an enemy of the west, thanks to Obama’s withdrawal of all US forces. This man is president of the United States?
Fear not,if the Iranians get uppity, President Obama will negotiate with them!
“I have in my hand,an agreement signed by Mr.Ahmadinejad…….”
“This man is president of the United States?”
Unfortunately. Let’s hope the Opposition can rectify that situation next year.
This is all the Jews fault damn them for being civilized in a land of Sandtards. This is not of topic I am just getting ahead of the news spin and who they plan to blame
After 10 years and thousands dead, billions spent, and the knowledge that we had no business going in there in the first place, yes, just get out and admit the whole thing was a mistake. The sunni, shiite and kurds have hated each other long before we intervened and with our withdrawal they can finally get around to wiping each other out. The winners (shiites) will still sell oil to the highest bidder. Sadam was a piece of work but he was the stability in the region and taking him out guaranteed the inevitable mess we are now walking away from. Staying would only insure another 10 years of postponing the inevitable mess. Afghanistan is the same can of worms. Even if we were to win there, what have we won? Nothing. The Russians learned their lesson, why is it so difficult for us ?
“I have in my hand,an agreement signed by Mr.Ahmadinejad…….”
Don’t be surprised to see that stolen in the future.
Several things to consider –
First, is Obama’s arrogance and ignorance. Ignorance about history and about societal and economic structures. Arrogance to assume that all it takes for anything to happen is his wave, his smile, his word.
Obama could have enabled regime change in Iran; instead, he ignored the demonstrators who were, alas, not screaming for Him, but for something else: democracy. Obama’s interest extends only to those who cheer for Him.
Equally, he could have strengthened the development of democracy in the ME by, rather than hesitating as he did with Egypt, Libya and Syria – and being forced to act by Europe – but by speaking and acting immediately in support of regime change in these areas.
But there’s another reality to contend with besides the disgraceful phase that Obama has put the US into – and that’s the fact that democracy is going to take time to develop in the ME.
Democracy is not a mechanical gadget that one purchases and then plugs into the wall. Neither is it a new fashionable coat that one slips on, or off, at a whim.
It’s a structure.
And structures are not ‘slip-ons’. They aren’t slippers; they aren’t sweaters, they aren’t gadgets. Structures are the bones and organs of a body and their operating instructions. Structures are the engineering drawings and framework of a rocket and computer. In a society, which is an organic entity, structures take time to emerge and develop. They are NOT slip-ons; they must take root, develop and mature.
This takes time. The time it takes in a society enables the structure to become a conscious reality that can be articulated, can be experienced, can be expressed.
The ME has never had a democratic structure. Its structure has been tribal which is anti-individual, group based, hierarchical and hostile to change and diversity. The opposite of democracy. So, don’t be furious when the ME goes through a post-dictator phase of a continuing tribalism. It will become democratic, i.e., the political and economic authority will become vested in the people and a middle class will develop. But it takes time.
It is naive to think that democracy is an intellectual choice that one adopts like a new coat. It’s the infrastructure that is vital – and this infrastructure for democracy requires an economy based around a middle class engaged in private businesses. It is this economic mode that should be encouraged by the West, with rigorous attempts to engage in small/medium business collaborations. Strengthen the middle class and you’ll get democracy.
Peterj
Yes, but just as history has demonstrated, once the dust settles and a victor emerges, that victor sets it’s eyes on extending it’s reach.
ET
Good points. However the left isn’t interested in something unless it is transient,or fashionable. That long game stuff requires long term commitment.
No sweat,
Mr Obama will use his covey of drones to protect our interest in the Middle East..
And right on cue, Obama acts in opposition to America and her interests…and in the interests of the Middle Eastern dictators that he bows to.
And America elected him? We know Acorn was crooked as a dog’s hind leg. Makes a fella wonder just how crooked they were.
peterj – ” the whole thing was a mistake “? The removal of Saddam removed an enemy, and his ” stability ” was replaced by a much better source of stability – a consensual regime guaranteed by US forces. Eliminating the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons will be far more difficult, with the US gone from Iran’s doorstep.
The moslem marxist strikes again.
It’s easy to ‘splain, Oblah blah is at best a Muslim sympathizer and at worst and more likely, a closet muslim.
America has lost every war it’ been in since ww2. You would think they would get the hint. They are stupid, powerful but too stupid to understand what previous generation knew, you fight a war to win, not do social work.
Setup for “Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran!” 2013. Unless the Israelis get tired of waiting and just bomb the f-ers now. Better than waiting for Ahmadinnerjacket to light off a nuke in Tel Aviv eh?
Also, I must say that ET is on a roll today. Democracy and personal freedom are not something that gets given away by governments, no matter how well meaning. Those are things people have to fight for themselves.
As Americans and Canadians are re-discovering right now. We’re all going to keep losing liberty and personal power until we start in seriously fighting our own governments. Like, fight every damn little niggly regulation and scam.
“I have in my hand,an agreement signed by Mr.Ahmadinejad…….” now where have we heard that before, oh yes, 30 September 1938, Neville Chamberlain waving his piece of paper and saying “peace for our time”.
The morons do not learn. Like Abe says “you fight a war to win, not do social work”.
I also recommend reading Krauthammer’s similar view:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-lost-iraq/2011/11/03/gIQAUcUqjM_story.html
“Barack Obama was a principled opponent of the Iraq war from its beginning. But when he became president in January 2009, he was handed a war that was won. The surge had succeeded. Al-Qaeda in Iraq had been routed, driven to humiliating defeat by an Anbar Awakening of Sunnis fighting side-by-side with the infidel Americans. Even more remarkably, the Shiite militias had been taken down, with U.S. backing, by the forces of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. They crushed the Sadr militias from Basra to Sadr City.
Al-Qaeda decimated. A Shiite prime minister taking a decisively nationalist line. Iraqi Sunnis ready to integrate into a new national government. U.S. casualties at their lowest ebb in the entire war. Elections approaching. Obama was left with but a single task: Negotiate a new status-of-forces agreement (SOFA) to reinforce these gains and create a strategic partnership with the Arab world’s only democracy.
Negotiate a new status-of-forces agreement (SOFA) to reinforce these gains and create a strategic partnership with the Arab world’s only democracy.
Which Obama didn’t do thank goodness. It’s hilarious to listen to Kate and others blah blah about overspending and blah blah about the permanently evil Mooslems and then they want America to enter into a ridiculous position of being Iraq’s perma-crutch at massive expense. Obama blew an opportunity to engage in massively expensive power projection and it’s one of the few good things he’s done.
This is also hilarious because opponents of the Iraq War made a talking point of Sadaam’s opposition to Iran and how Iran could fill the power vacuum.
PS: Morroco’s Islamists didn’t even get a majority. It was just over a quarter of seats. The monarch will surely keep his eye on them.
I find it interesting that the Arab League is supporting the ‘revolutionaries’.
Every win by the ‘people’ who want democracy has resulted in islamic rule.
This is democracy,if you believe that democracy is a male domain. Human rights are not relevant when being human is determined by gender,backed by an iron fist.
Vietnam redux. Nixon’s Vietnamization program was largely in place and the Counterinsurgency was working. All that was needed was US air support and resupply to finish remnants of a nearly decimated viet cong. But with Nixon on the ropes politically due to watergate the democratically controlled house and senate was emboldened to cut off the South Vietnamese people. Millions in SV and Cambodia were murdered as a result. Lack of political courage in foreign affairs has left the dem party with blood its hands more than once and it will do so again.
@ small c conservative
We always have the option of turning Iran into a parking lot. Being nice does not win wars. Unfortuately Obama is not the type of leader that lays that out for the Iranians. He should and if necessary we should. No exit strategy required.
Gord, a bit much history recreation here. Vietnamization failed massively when the best of the SVA was largely decimated in the Laos incursion in 1971. The main threat was never the Viet Cong, it was the NVA regular army, which in 1972 largely defeated its SVA counterparts in the Easter 1972 offensive. The SVA had high US air support, and that’s the only thing which kept the NVA from overrunning the country in ’72.
And please remember that most of these disasters happened before Watergate came to light.
Now I finally realized what I was doing for 2 frigging years,
Social Work in Vietnam..
Love it- ha.
Suggesting that the Iraq insurgency had been won is more than a stretch. I suggest that Iran realizing the USA would withdraw simply deferred further confrontation. The bottom line is that the majority of the population is Shite and although they all might not like the Iranians they find it more compatiable than the Sunnis.
American intelligence probably came to the conclusion that retaining Iraq meant more troops and prolonged conflict. At the end of the day the will wasn’t there. Iran has defacto control over Iraq.
The real question is who will control Syria. If Assad is not overthrown then Iran will control from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranian. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel will be threatened. Turkey has thrown in with the Saudis by all appearances. The lines are being drawn along Shite vs Sunni faiths.
Combine Iranian and Iraqi oil production and you are pushing 6 million bpd. That buys a lot of friends. Major power shift. Interesting that the Russians probably don’t like this development but the Chinese will be their best friends!
ct is correct.
The story the people are given and what really conspires behing closed doors are usually incompatible with the truth. Iran always knew they just had to sit back and wait. Democracy was only important to us.Iraq never asked for it and their only dream is watching the last convoy leave. If we wanted to win we could have done it only by force. Destroy and take ownership. Difficult thing to do half way around the world. All Muslim countries would have turned against us and we would have to take them all out. As it is , they all dislike us anyway. We give equality to woman, have gay rights and stand behind Israel to mention a few. That makes us the spawn of the devil in their eyes. Not saying it’s wrong, but there is a price to pay. There was never a exit strategy and still isn’t. They would all hail us as liberators and we would all live in harmony. Except, they are muslims and hate everything we stand for. They all praised Allah on 9/11. Once we leave, the real show will start and the option of going back in is close to zero. Like I said earlier, Sadam was a piece of work but he was the stability. So was Mubarak and Ghadaffi. We wished them gone. We should always be careful what we wish for. Afghanistan is the same can of worms. We should have bombed the snot out of the Tora Bora mountains and left it at that. No exit strategy there either. Solution would be to let them all kill each other as they choose and mind our own business. Warn any country that attacks Israel that they will be turned into a parking lot and be prepared to mean what we say. Other than that, let the chips fall where they may. We don’t need any Muslim country as friends. If they want to do business with us they will. Just like China and Russia. Business is business.
peterj:
That is why I could not understand the American rejection of Keystone. It would have replaced the 1.5 million bpd the USA imports from the ME. The enviro argument doesn’t stand up when you consider the thousands of miles of pipe already built in the area.
The USA will befaced with a oil shortage before this is done, especially if the ME descends into anarchy which appears to be happening. As a Canadian our federal government should be expediting the pipe construction to the West coast and selling oil to the Chinese, Koreans and Japanese. Business is business. 🙂
@ ct
We all know there was no logic involved. Just politics as usual. Obama can’t lose the greenie voters and is trying to stall the pipeline until after the next election. It will go ahead one way or another. With any luck Obama will be turfed out but even if he stays he will give the green light to proceed in 2013. The pipeline to Prince Rupert will also proceed because “business is business”. If the GOP gets in it will be “drill baby drill”. Americans didn’t reject Keystone. Hollywood and brainwashed tree huggers rejected it. Obama needs both to survive. The man has got to go or get a mind of his own and do what’s best for the country. Go is best.