Debate Predictions?

Tonight’s debate in Hempstead, New York is going to be an interesting affair. It’ll be most interesting to what happens with each of the following actors:

  1. Barack Obama
  2. Mitt Romney
  3. Candy Crowley
  4. The audience members who ask questions

26 Replies to “Debate Predictions?”

  1. CNN has a history of using outright Democrat supporters as ‘normal average undecided voters’. But they got busted for it last time. It’ll be interesting to see if they try that same weasel trick again.

  2. Romney will ignore Obama as much as he can and as though he’s not there — implying that he’s no longer relevant — and speak directly to the questioners and by extension to the 70 mil. viewers. He’ll want to convey a sense of inevitability. After tonight, the next debate will be a pathetic afterthought.
    On which topic, Gallup this moment has R 50%, O 46%.

  3. I think it is already fairly obvious what Ms. Crowley will be doing. She will be struggling with the Chimp in Chief’s zipper during the entire “debate”. And grok, why would anything that previously happened matter in the least to ABCNNBCBS or their dead-tree fellow travelers? Has such an event EVER affected their actions in the past? Ms Crowley will be selecting questions that have been e-mailed in for the debate. Of course, she certainly will strive for appropriate “diversity”…

  4. 1. I expect to see a lot of the modified Joker grin, and at least 5 instances each of “make no mistake” and “let me be perfectly clear.” I think he’ll use the name of the question-asker at least twice during every “answer,” looking to connect with the “little guy.”
    2. For some reason I expect to see him show up in a sweater vest of some kind. He’ll address all his answers to Candy, remembering each audience member only as “poor guy in bad suit,” “poor woman with bad haircut,” etc….
    3. Best Oprah Winfrey impression ever. I’d bet on far more of an “interviewer” role from her than “moderator.” She will be the first one in the room to utter the words “forty-seven percent.”
    4. What’s the point of even having these people ask pre-approved questions? Particularly when half of the night is supposed to be about foreign policy? Is Sally Smallbusinesswoman really the best person to ask about Afghanistan? Prediction: people read canned questions and then their eyes gloss over as candidates fail to answer them.

  5. First question: Mr. President, what is your secret for looking fabulous everyday?
    Second question: Mr.Romney, why do you hate black people, and women and especially black women? Please be specific and don’t use weasel words.

  6. The town hall attendees must submit their questions to Crowley in advance. She will read the questions ahead of time and pick which ones to call on.
    Crowley has already announced she is going to ignore the rules set by the Commission on Presidential Debates to not ask follow-up questions nor comment on the candidates’ answers. She said she will do both anyway.

  7. “As President, how wonderful is it to have Beyonce and other Hollywood celebs campaign and fundraise for you?”
    “Mr. Romney, when you aren’t eating kittens and stepping on puppies, do you beat your wife with your right or left hand?”
    Yeah, it’ll be fairly moderated.

  8. My prediction:
    Obama will try to appear aggressive. This will require that he spins many lies, because nobody can aggressively tout the truth when the truth is an anemic economy and a bunch of failed policies. For instance, he’ll probably repeat the lie that every dime of bailout money was paid back and then Romney will have to debunk that whopper.
    Romney will spend much effort debasing those lies, and will spend the rest of the time pretending that Obama is not there.

  9. I predict one of the plants will do something unbecoming and will be escorted out by security.

  10. Drunk Joe Biden will phone in a question using his disguised black guy “Y’all” voice, forget his train of thought and end it even more embarrassingly with hitting on “that hot piece of #$$ Candy Crowley”.

  11. richfisher….quite funny, well done.
    On the debate. Obama did ok in this format last year. He has a conversational style that works but so does Romney.
    Obama’s issues are as clear in 2008 as they were last debate, lots of ulms and ahs but when he has a pre scripted answer he delivers it well. He still looks down and smiles when criticized by his opponent.
    But in 2008 McCain just wasnt the right candidatem he was smaller, MUCH older and less compelling. Not bad just not as good. Romney has a higher energy level, more compelling and heck he used to sell Mormonism to French Catholics and investments to cranky investors, he knows how to pitch.
    I dont think Obama will be much different, just challenged less. But he may challenge Romney, and that may or may not work. Obama gets sarcastic and pouty when he argues. It never plays well.
    Thank goodness he isnt making a state of the union speech. There he YELLS his points.
    Obama will be perceived to do better, the format suits him better, but Romney will do well. That will solidify him by delivering two solid performances in a row, command of facts, arguments and plan. Should do it.

  12. My one item Wish List:
    – Romney batters Obama so badly that the latter storms offstage in a pouty huff.
    I’d pay cash money to see that!

  13. Intrade has prediction market listing for this debate.
    Right now it is 60/40 for the O man.
    Intrade
    We should be able to watch this in real time.
    Feeling lucky? You can bet some real money on the outcome.

  14. Prediction:
    In an attempt to emulate Uncle Joe; Obama’s disposition is very uncouth, alienating more Independent voters, and his slide in the polls continues the next day.
    All of that said, I agree with Hannity that the pundits have already written their article and Obama will be announce “the winner” by the MSM, to no avail.

  15. richfisher at 5:37 PM
    I would have thought “drunk” would make Biden appear smarter than usual:-))))

  16. Obama will TRY to be everything that he wasn’t in the last debate. He will be Obama on speed.

  17. Mitt should send in Dr. Ron Paul in his stead – I’d watch that! Mitt could sit by, listen and learn.

  18. I love MJ’s analysis/prediction. I think this would be extremely effective. Thinking back, this is a tactic he used during the Primaries effectively.

  19. MJ, I distrust the polls sudden pre-debate boost for Romney. “Gallup this moment has R 50%, O 46%”
    It will let the MSM tout an Obama bounce and crumbling Romney support in a few days when the next polls come out. It is an old TorStar, CBC and Frank Graves (and others) election poll trick.
    Their trick is to publish an outlier conservative skewed poll (usually buried on page 5 or at the end of the newscast), then 3 days later come out with normal poll and announce “crumbling Conservative support”, usually associated with some supposed “gaffe”. It will be on the front pages of the Star and Globe and lead the CBC news for days on end.

  20. If this isn’t the stage managed public events which are the only environment Obama can appear remotely cogent in, it will definitely be the people asking tough questions who are the stars.
    I can think of a dozen questions which Obama fears to answer but I hope at least one black person asks him why he relies on racial turmoil to further his career.

  21. “MJ, I distrust the polls sudden pre-debate boost for Romney.”
    In this case I doubt it, but you could be right. I hate to explain events by relying on conspiracies.

  22. Debate prediction?
    The media has speculated that B. Hussien is going to be more aggressive in this second debate. If he is, and he pisses Mitt Romney off, Mitt will take the gloves off, B. Hussien will cry, Michelle will cry.
    Picture a cat playing with a mouse.

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