Well, it’s only gasoline consumption. Probably nothing.
h/t Melinda Romanoff
44 Replies to “4 Year Recovery Watch Remains On High Alert”
It seems the US CO2 emmisions have declined to the levels of the 90’s. As predicted the economy would need to collapse to attain that…..
Enjoy the decline……..
Must be all the electric vehicles on the road now…
The White House and the lamestreammedia can only disguise the truth for so long before the whole house of cards collapses all at once.
Obama did promise energy independence – another promise soon to be kept!
. . . this is just more proof that the $$billions invested to sell the millions of Chevy Volts is a successful Obama policy.
Oh wait a minute, hoe many Volts have been sold?
We’ve been warned. I think this is a lot closer to the truth than the garbage Wall st. has been pumping out. Math is hard, but math doesn’t lie. http://www.insideinvestingdaily.com/articles/inside-investing-031113.html
No one wants to be first to yell “fire” in the theater, but when the smoke becomes thick enough, watch the panic.
Oh crap…
Thanks a lot Kate and Melinda. I love charts, and this one is amazing.
John >
“And partially due to all of those jobs he helped ship overseas.”
Why do you people hate Asian’s so much?
We should have Obama’s golf handicap plotted on the Y2 axis.
Hmmmm. Could it be that perhaps people are buying smaller cars?
No it couldn’t. Think of the total vehicles on the road and a more accurate picture should form. Believing that the 2012 car sales numbers you quoted could cause the prior 5 years of total retail gasoline sales to halve is preposterously insane. And smaller houses? WTF?
Actually John, it has a lot more to do with Socialism and the failed policies of Socialism. Since Pres. Lyndon Johnson’s day and His War on Poverty the US Taxpayer has wasted $15,000,000,000,000.00 that’s 15T just on the War on Poverty and various Socialist Scams. Result Millions on Food Stamps, and Welfare, Obama alone has borrowed and wasted 6 plus Trillion and the economy has barely budged, Socialism has bankrupted the USA, Canada, and the EU. That is the real problem. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/04/05/BOOMTOWN-2-Taxpayers-Have-Spent-15-Trillion-On-The-War-on-Poverty
The trucking industry is the first to go into recession and the first to come out. Sometimes the difference between when freight volumes drop and a recession is acknowledge can be upwards of 12 months. Trucking companies in Ontario and Quebec have been steadily slowing down since November. The US market is even worse. I suspect a recession will be acknowledged by August.
@RFB The so-called war on poverty has worked to get a lot of people out of poverty, turning them, and our society into productive economic engines. My wife, grew up as a poor farm kid. Lived in a trailer, pooped in a bucket, and relied on welfare. Went to university on grants, and now pays an outrageous amount in taxes.
@Knight, is that a serious question? If you object to shipping jobs overseas it’s because we hate Asians?
@Max, the economic crisis that has driven the increase in small car purchasing started over 4 years ago. It would definitely play into how much fuel people are consuming. And people building smaller houses means less fuel is consumed to heat them. Simply looking to this graph as a means of pointing out how poorly the economy is doing is silly, when the NASDAQ just hit it’s highest point since 2000 (Back when another Democrat was in office). Not saying it’s great, not saying there isn’t much to be done, but you can’t scream socialist when the economy is doing better than under a Republican.
John >
“(Back when another Democrat was in office)”
Next you’ll want the party of the K.K.K to start home abortion programs for the black people of America, like the over 55 million already aborted in Liberal murder factories isn’t fast enough.
Why not get them dependant of welfare, stick them on government policed ghetto plantations, and then use them as drug dealers and vote slaves – oh sorry, you’ve already done that. http://www.blackgenocide.org/black.html
The so-called war on poverty has worked to get a lot of people out of poverty
No it hasn’t. LBJ’s WoP actually decreased the rate at which poverty was declining. And the negative effects of welfare dependency are well documented.
Then again you’re an idiot who believes outsourcing is bad for the people of America. Why should I expect you to understand anything?
That’s some comedy routine you’ve got there John. Quoting the Nasdaq of 2000 pre dot-bomb almost made me laugh aloud (not easy to do today).
First off “Finished motor gasoline” is not fuel oil for heating homes. I’m not sure it even includes diesel fuel for trucks. And even if it were, the quantities of consumption in proportion to decreased square footage of new home construction would not precipitate such a sudden drop. You may as well point at “global warming” or “increased sun spots” or “excessive bovine flatulence” as a cause.
“…the economic crisis that has driven the increase in small car purchasing started over 4 years ago.”
That very well could be. It could also be argued that “the decline” started in the 70s. It could also be argued that Bush excessively increased spending and cut taxes with the assumption that a successor would need to increase revenue or cut spending, likely both. Neither has occurred during the Obama administration.
But we’re weren’t talking about “root causes” were we. We are talking about today’s retail gasoline consumption. It’s way down, and it’s an economic indicator, in the same way that 1/5 of Americans on food stamps is an economic indicator.
“…but you can’t scream socialist when the economy is doing better than under a Republican.”
Yes I can. Obama’s a socialist, you’re a socialist, and the western world is collapsing under its own weight largely due to socialist policies. And I guess your definition of “better” is different from mine. And the fact that you can consider an economy to be “under” a particular leader is telling.
Point taken about fuel oil vs gas. Should have caught that. Point remains that people are buying smaller cars, AND it looks like since 2004 people have been driving less, which also would play a big role in the decline. http://www.streetfilms.org/streetfacts-2-americans-are-driving-less/
Point is that the answer is a complex one, not something you can just showhorn into an explanation that suits your worldview.
And just so you never forget, the economy collapsed completely under a conservative’s watch. Worse than anybody has seen in 70 years. Us “socialists” here in Canada came out mostly ok, and the Nordic countries in Europe, which are pretty heavily socialist, are being touted as the future economic model for most of the world: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21571136-politicians-both-right-and-left-could-learn-nordic-countries-next-supermodel
max-
As you know, nothing screams “Business Cycle” like an election. It’s the only thing that puts the exclamation point in “Tyranny!”.
The left is nothing more than a bunch guilt ridden thieves.
Small car trend in the US began under Carter, which, coincidentally, is precisely where US Employment has returned, as reported last Friday.
Living off of oil revenues is not a Socialist solution.
Try again.
And which Bush is conservative? That’s right, it’s Marvin.
just got back from my cold sojurn in flordia. if traffic on the road and hotel occupency, as well as restaurant traffic, is any indication of how well the u.s. is doing then it is full bore ahead. i know it actually is not, but many seem to be ignoring this. two days of bumper to bumper traffic at 80 miles an hour really keeps your attention. traffic from i26 on to i95 was backed up for at least twenty miles. traffic going south from i77 to i26 was backed up 13km. going north was no problem.
The best selling vehicle in the US, as of Dec. 2012, is still the pick up truck.
You’re looking into the wrong end of the projector.
And, John, citing the Economist for political and economic supertrends ranks right up there with their solutions for Climate ChangeTM.
trent… i just talked to a friend who has a son living in the south u.s he and a friend have started a company that allows truckers to use their phones to photo and transmit their costs directly to their home base. they are teck geeks. they signed up 560 truckers at one trade show in three days. who says canadians living in the u.s. can’t make money. this thing will be big and i guess the kids will make lots of inflated money.
Let’s not forget that average fuel economy of the US fleet has increased since, oh, 1990.
There’s still a significant downturn (the increase is pretty minor compared to the delta in that chart) – but what we really want to graph is not “amount of fuel burned”, but “vehicle miles traveled”.
by the way…. everything comes to an end. we just don’t know when.
John >
“Us “socialists” here in Canada came out mostly ok”
The only thanks is to the economic professionalism and expertise of our Honorable Stephan Harper, the greatest Prime Minister in Canadian history!
“The left is nothing more than a bunch guilt ridden thieves.”
Melinda. I think you can safely drop the “guilt”,guilt and left in the same sentence is a prime example of an oxymoron.(and heavy on the moron)
John said: “Hmmmm. Could it be that perhaps people are buying smaller cars?”
I just knew one of you little envirotards would be coming along presently with this bit of stupidity.
The best selling vehicle in the USA since 1948 has been the Ford F series. Which is a truck. The best selling vehicle types since CAFE killed the station wagon are the mini van, the SUV and the crew-cab pickup. Which are all… trucks.
Idiots in Toronto are buying smaller cars. I’d guess you idolise the new Fiat 500, right? You know what Fiat stands for? “Fix it again, Tony!” I call them “Feel-It”. Every bump in the road, you’re going to Feel-It.
Everybody with a brain (and the coin) is buying bigger and bigger trucks. This is the reality of vehicle sales in North America today, and it is continually frustrating all the central planners on the Left who keep trying to force people into smaller, wimpier cars.
Do you know why the people refuse to buy the small crappy cars, O small brained Liberal? Maybe you should WONDER why for just a second. Maybe you should try to find out why, hmm?
Go do a little research and stop parroting other people’s propaganda, you hopeless mouthpiece.
socialism is failing all over the place and an idiot lefty still thinks it’s great and gonna save the USA. No John, the Nordic socialism model will not be the future, they have already started a slow shift to the rite, and will have to keep doing so, or they will fail just like their cousins farther south> U see Jonnyboy, their system is failing to keep up with the needed modernization of their industrial infrastructure, so they will fall behind and become uncompetitive in the future. U can’t do $100 worth of work and get paid $200 and stay current, that’s just an economic fact!!! Butt dream johnnyboy, life is short and I can see that the future will be very taxing for your pee brain, so enjoy while you are still ignorant!
John Wayne quote. “Life is tough, it’s tougher when you are stupid.”
I like the fact that liberals buy small expensive dangerous cars even more than them buying organic fair trade coffee and almost as much as them not buying many guns ☺
While there are several modifiers to the trend illustrated above, in aggregate the trend is downward because the economy is slowing down:
Age demo – older people drive less and the US is getting older, and the people most likely to drive are younger and that demo has been hit hardest economically.
Fleet economy – vehicles, regardless of size, are in aggregate delivering better fuel economy.
Fuel Type – not sure if this applies to the graphic above, but more and more vehicles in the fleet are burning Diesel and in some cases natural gas. And those vehicles are typically being driven considerably more than average.
Fuel type part 2 – flying is getting cheaper and easier to book than in the past – perhaps more kerosene is being burnt rather than driving…
Cocooning – focusing on the home rather than travel – has been an ongoing consumer trend since before 9/11 and has been growing at a faster rate ever since.
Yet taking all of the above into consideration – something is going on. And its bad. So much of the american economy is false – food stamps, welfare and unemployment and disability claims all are propping up the numbers (and the stock market) but none require economic activity – read burn fuel – to create.
Poverty levels in the US have now dropped to that of 1962 – two years before the war n poverty was declared. Perhaps now we are seeing 1962 levels of driving and fuel consumption as a result. And it can entirely be laid at the feet of progressive legislators and their crony capitalist benefactors.
I think that’s a really smart comment, which has revealed that, having done exactly what you’ve suggested, the data sets don’t just seem to align correctly — which is the second time in a week, that I’ve noticed, that Zerohedge has been offside with logic.
By my reckoning, miles driven appear to have increased from about 2,150,000 mm to about 3,025,000 mm between 1991 through 2007 — a 41% increase. In the same period, by eyeballing the mean, I’d say that gasoline shipments basically remained around 60 mm gallons per day over the same period. That would imply an average all-in efficiency gain, over the period, of 29% (which is believable), subject, of course, to various unexplained — in this article — deviations from that mean (I could offer up some anecdotal suggestions as to why).
Given all that, according to the data presented, miles driven have decreased by a modest 2.5% (3,025,000 mm to 2,950,000 mm, approximately) from 2007 to 2012, yet gasoline shipments have decreased in the same period by 55% (60 mm/day to 27mm/day). That would be a red flag, IMHO — pardon the pun.
For an elemental critique of current policy to be sustained, data sets must align. They do not, in this case. The strength of our argument is our consistency, not our selective fear-mongering, as we regularly accuse the other side of doing. “Our qualities and our deeds must burn and glow through the gloom of Europe until the become the veritable beacon of its salvation.”
Somebody please explain, if gasoline volumes are down so significantly, and there’s no reason to doubt that, why are gas prices so high?
Current prices defy the laws of supply and demand.
Yes, taxes, I know (and agree), but gas should be cheaper, vis-a-vis the price of a barrel of crude.
It is, and always has been, whatever the traffic will bear. Lower gas prices also means lower government revenue as well as lower profit for the oil corporations. The consumer is given lip service and nothing else. If in doubt just wait for the next long weekend for the price spike at the pumps.
Excellent comments mr. Southam.
DanBC:
standards for gas vary all across north america. That adds to cost. Most gasoline refineries are on the eastern seabord and are buying oil at Brent oil tidewater prices – currently 105$/bbl.
I’m told by a very reliable source that not one of those refineries is profitable…because their competition in chicago (obama’s home state) is getting alberta crude at $30 below west texas which is only $93 – a $40 dollar difference.
Thus some are feasting while others are starving but capacity is limited – especially with all the different standards and thus prices – for now – remain stubbornly high.
If Chesapeake and others in the east start to supply the eastern refineries with significant fracked oil and the Gulf gets similar supply boosts from Odessa and elsewhere in texas and OK, then prices could drop – a lot and quickly.
// Well, it’s only gasoline consumption. Probably nothing. //
Mr. Durden stretched and scrunched the axes to make it look like a roller coaster compared with the actual EIA chart That & the helpful labels make it look like something, but your are right — it is nothing; it especially isn’t “gasoline consumption”.
// I queried the EIA and as I expected the key to understanding the chart is the statement the chart shows retail sales by refiners. I have been closely following the divestiture of the retail outlets by the majors such as Exxon and BP over the past couple of years, accelerating now because there is NO MONEY in retail, just in exploration and distribution – basically through the wholesale level.
Therefore the sales by the refiners at the retail level is of course rapidly plummeting.
It’s an interesting measure which has no validity whatsoever on total usage/demand.
Regards, Tim Wallace //
in calgary, i’m hearing layoffs, which till now was almost unheard of.
90 million out of work in the states, disability, food stamps. no money for gasoline if you ain’t goin ta work.
cupie doll to brainiac that figures this out………….
a-neck-do-tall, started walking 4 km to work for exercise, screw transit.
Gord-
The Brent angle is always interesting if one looks at VLCC lease rates, cost of capital, and Contango’d Crude pricing. If one were to borrow to lease the Very Large Crude Carrier, buy unwanted spot market crude and store it in something that floats, all at Fed level interest rates, the contango trade will work right up to the point it stops, then the curve gets ironed. Contango is the commodity term for when the nearer, contract defined, delivery month is cheaper than future, standardized delivery months, and reflects storage costs. These can be displaced by market forces, and have been a bit “manipulated” in the last few years.
The moving parts are larger than they appear in the right hand mirror.
It seems the US CO2 emmisions have declined to the levels of the 90’s. As predicted the economy would need to collapse to attain that…..
Enjoy the decline……..
This is not a rally. Get ready for the dam to break soon. I advise getting in a good garden this year and learn how to fend for yourself. And above all get out of debt. The shit storm cometh quickly. http://www.insideinvestingdaily.com/articles/inside-investing-040813.html?sub=TD&o=965410&s=970928&u=48412125&l=558012&r=Milo
Must be all the electric vehicles on the road now…
The White House and the lamestreammedia can only disguise the truth for so long before the whole house of cards collapses all at once.
Obama did promise energy independence – another promise soon to be kept!
. . . this is just more proof that the $$billions invested to sell the millions of Chevy Volts is a successful Obama policy.
Oh wait a minute, hoe many Volts have been sold?
We’ve been warned. I think this is a lot closer to the truth than the garbage Wall st. has been pumping out. Math is hard, but math doesn’t lie.
http://www.insideinvestingdaily.com/articles/inside-investing-031113.html
No one wants to be first to yell “fire” in the theater, but when the smoke becomes thick enough, watch the panic.
Oh crap…
Thanks a lot Kate and Melinda. I love charts, and this one is amazing.
Hmmmm. Could it be that perhaps people are buying smaller cars?
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/In-Gear/2012/1009/Car-trends-Small-is-the-new-big
And smaller houses?
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/08/americans-want-smaller-homes-not-mcmansions-/1#.UWMD9Ksjp_k
No! NOOOOOOOO! It MUST be because the economy is failing, and it’s all Obama’s fault!!!!! Though, yes, it probably has to to partially with less energy being used in manufacturing, partially due to the economic collapse which happened on Bush’s watch, and which is still affecting the economy. And partially due to all of those jobs he helped ship overseas.
John >
“And partially due to all of those jobs he helped ship overseas.”
Why do you people hate Asian’s so much?
We should have Obama’s golf handicap plotted on the Y2 axis.
No it couldn’t. Think of the total vehicles on the road and a more accurate picture should form. Believing that the 2012 car sales numbers you quoted could cause the prior 5 years of total retail gasoline sales to halve is preposterously insane. And smaller houses? WTF?
Actually John, it has a lot more to do with Socialism and the failed policies of Socialism. Since Pres. Lyndon Johnson’s day and His War on Poverty the US Taxpayer has wasted $15,000,000,000,000.00 that’s 15T just on the War on Poverty and various Socialist Scams. Result Millions on Food Stamps, and Welfare, Obama alone has borrowed and wasted 6 plus Trillion and the economy has barely budged, Socialism has bankrupted the USA, Canada, and the EU. That is the real problem. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/04/05/BOOMTOWN-2-Taxpayers-Have-Spent-15-Trillion-On-The-War-on-Poverty
The trucking industry is the first to go into recession and the first to come out. Sometimes the difference between when freight volumes drop and a recession is acknowledge can be upwards of 12 months. Trucking companies in Ontario and Quebec have been steadily slowing down since November. The US market is even worse. I suspect a recession will be acknowledged by August.
@RFB The so-called war on poverty has worked to get a lot of people out of poverty, turning them, and our society into productive economic engines. My wife, grew up as a poor farm kid. Lived in a trailer, pooped in a bucket, and relied on welfare. Went to university on grants, and now pays an outrageous amount in taxes.
@Knight, is that a serious question? If you object to shipping jobs overseas it’s because we hate Asians?
@Max, the economic crisis that has driven the increase in small car purchasing started over 4 years ago. It would definitely play into how much fuel people are consuming. And people building smaller houses means less fuel is consumed to heat them. Simply looking to this graph as a means of pointing out how poorly the economy is doing is silly, when the NASDAQ just hit it’s highest point since 2000 (Back when another Democrat was in office). Not saying it’s great, not saying there isn’t much to be done, but you can’t scream socialist when the economy is doing better than under a Republican.
John >
“(Back when another Democrat was in office)”
Next you’ll want the party of the K.K.K to start home abortion programs for the black people of America, like the over 55 million already aborted in Liberal murder factories isn’t fast enough.
Why not get them dependant of welfare, stick them on government policed ghetto plantations, and then use them as drug dealers and vote slaves – oh sorry, you’ve already done that.
http://www.blackgenocide.org/black.html
The so-called war on poverty has worked to get a lot of people out of poverty
No it hasn’t. LBJ’s WoP actually decreased the rate at which poverty was declining. And the negative effects of welfare dependency are well documented.
Then again you’re an idiot who believes outsourcing is bad for the people of America. Why should I expect you to understand anything?
That’s some comedy routine you’ve got there John. Quoting the Nasdaq of 2000 pre dot-bomb almost made me laugh aloud (not easy to do today).
First off “Finished motor gasoline” is not fuel oil for heating homes. I’m not sure it even includes diesel fuel for trucks. And even if it were, the quantities of consumption in proportion to decreased square footage of new home construction would not precipitate such a sudden drop. You may as well point at “global warming” or “increased sun spots” or “excessive bovine flatulence” as a cause.
That very well could be. It could also be argued that “the decline” started in the 70s. It could also be argued that Bush excessively increased spending and cut taxes with the assumption that a successor would need to increase revenue or cut spending, likely both. Neither has occurred during the Obama administration.
But we’re weren’t talking about “root causes” were we. We are talking about today’s retail gasoline consumption. It’s way down, and it’s an economic indicator, in the same way that 1/5 of Americans on food stamps is an economic indicator.
Yes I can. Obama’s a socialist, you’re a socialist, and the western world is collapsing under its own weight largely due to socialist policies. And I guess your definition of “better” is different from mine. And the fact that you can consider an economy to be “under” a particular leader is telling.
Point taken about fuel oil vs gas. Should have caught that. Point remains that people are buying smaller cars, AND it looks like since 2004 people have been driving less, which also would play a big role in the decline.
http://www.streetfilms.org/streetfacts-2-americans-are-driving-less/
Point is that the answer is a complex one, not something you can just showhorn into an explanation that suits your worldview.
And just so you never forget, the economy collapsed completely under a conservative’s watch. Worse than anybody has seen in 70 years. Us “socialists” here in Canada came out mostly ok, and the Nordic countries in Europe, which are pretty heavily socialist, are being touted as the future economic model for most of the world:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21571136-politicians-both-right-and-left-could-learn-nordic-countries-next-supermodel
max-
As you know, nothing screams “Business Cycle” like an election. It’s the only thing that puts the exclamation point in “Tyranny!”.
The left is nothing more than a bunch guilt ridden thieves.
Small car trend in the US began under Carter, which, coincidentally, is precisely where US Employment has returned, as reported last Friday.
Living off of oil revenues is not a Socialist solution.
Try again.
And which Bush is conservative? That’s right, it’s Marvin.
just got back from my cold sojurn in flordia. if traffic on the road and hotel occupency, as well as restaurant traffic, is any indication of how well the u.s. is doing then it is full bore ahead. i know it actually is not, but many seem to be ignoring this. two days of bumper to bumper traffic at 80 miles an hour really keeps your attention. traffic from i26 on to i95 was backed up for at least twenty miles. traffic going south from i77 to i26 was backed up 13km. going north was no problem.
The best selling vehicle in the US, as of Dec. 2012, is still the pick up truck.
You’re looking into the wrong end of the projector.
And, John, citing the Economist for political and economic supertrends ranks right up there with their solutions for Climate ChangeTM.
trent… i just talked to a friend who has a son living in the south u.s he and a friend have started a company that allows truckers to use their phones to photo and transmit their costs directly to their home base. they are teck geeks. they signed up 560 truckers at one trade show in three days. who says canadians living in the u.s. can’t make money. this thing will be big and i guess the kids will make lots of inflated money.
Let’s not forget that average fuel economy of the US fleet has increased since, oh, 1990.
There’s still a significant downturn (the increase is pretty minor compared to the delta in that chart) – but what we really want to graph is not “amount of fuel burned”, but “vehicle miles traveled”.
by the way…. everything comes to an end. we just don’t know when.
John you remind of those old timey doctors that believed in blood letting to get the evil humours out of the patients body. Many of the patients died, these are the same ideas that all socialists like Justin Trudeau and Mulcair preach to the young and those who have never had to balance a family budget to maintain their families. John all of that 15T was BORROWED MONEY AT INTEREST. The USA has a SOVEREIGN DEBT LOAD OF 144T unemployment amongst Blacks in the USA is in the 30-40% range. How has this lifted them out of poverty, it has enslaved them. Socialism has never in history lifted anyone, but it has put millions of people in the grave. Ie National Socialist Party of Germany, Stalin and Communism, Mao and his millions, total body count over 100 million served. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/245-trillion-us-national-debt-144-trillion-unfunded-liabilities-2015?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29&utm_content=Yahoo!+Mail
John >
“Us “socialists” here in Canada came out mostly ok”
The only thanks is to the economic professionalism and expertise of our Honorable Stephan Harper, the greatest Prime Minister in Canadian history!
“The left is nothing more than a bunch guilt ridden thieves.”
Melinda. I think you can safely drop the “guilt”,guilt and left in the same sentence is a prime example of an oxymoron.(and heavy on the moron)
John said: “Hmmmm. Could it be that perhaps people are buying smaller cars?”
I just knew one of you little envirotards would be coming along presently with this bit of stupidity.
The best selling vehicle in the USA since 1948 has been the Ford F series. Which is a truck. The best selling vehicle types since CAFE killed the station wagon are the mini van, the SUV and the crew-cab pickup. Which are all… trucks.
Idiots in Toronto are buying smaller cars. I’d guess you idolise the new Fiat 500, right? You know what Fiat stands for? “Fix it again, Tony!” I call them “Feel-It”. Every bump in the road, you’re going to Feel-It.
Everybody with a brain (and the coin) is buying bigger and bigger trucks. This is the reality of vehicle sales in North America today, and it is continually frustrating all the central planners on the Left who keep trying to force people into smaller, wimpier cars.
Do you know why the people refuse to buy the small crappy cars, O small brained Liberal? Maybe you should WONDER why for just a second. Maybe you should try to find out why, hmm?
Go do a little research and stop parroting other people’s propaganda, you hopeless mouthpiece.
socialism is failing all over the place and an idiot lefty still thinks it’s great and gonna save the USA. No John, the Nordic socialism model will not be the future, they have already started a slow shift to the rite, and will have to keep doing so, or they will fail just like their cousins farther south> U see Jonnyboy, their system is failing to keep up with the needed modernization of their industrial infrastructure, so they will fall behind and become uncompetitive in the future. U can’t do $100 worth of work and get paid $200 and stay current, that’s just an economic fact!!! Butt dream johnnyboy, life is short and I can see that the future will be very taxing for your pee brain, so enjoy while you are still ignorant!
John Wayne quote. “Life is tough, it’s tougher when you are stupid.”
I like the fact that liberals buy small expensive dangerous cars even more than them buying organic fair trade coffee and almost as much as them not buying many guns ☺
While there are several modifiers to the trend illustrated above, in aggregate the trend is downward because the economy is slowing down:
Age demo – older people drive less and the US is getting older, and the people most likely to drive are younger and that demo has been hit hardest economically.
Fleet economy – vehicles, regardless of size, are in aggregate delivering better fuel economy.
Fuel Type – not sure if this applies to the graphic above, but more and more vehicles in the fleet are burning Diesel and in some cases natural gas. And those vehicles are typically being driven considerably more than average.
Fuel type part 2 – flying is getting cheaper and easier to book than in the past – perhaps more kerosene is being burnt rather than driving…
Cocooning – focusing on the home rather than travel – has been an ongoing consumer trend since before 9/11 and has been growing at a faster rate ever since.
Yet taking all of the above into consideration – something is going on. And its bad. So much of the american economy is false – food stamps, welfare and unemployment and disability claims all are propping up the numbers (and the stock market) but none require economic activity – read burn fuel – to create.
Poverty levels in the US have now dropped to that of 1962 – two years before the war n poverty was declared. Perhaps now we are seeing 1962 levels of driving and fuel consumption as a result. And it can entirely be laid at the feet of progressive legislators and their crony capitalist benefactors.
I think that’s a really smart comment, which has revealed that, having done exactly what you’ve suggested, the data sets don’t just seem to align correctly — which is the second time in a week, that I’ve noticed, that Zerohedge has been offside with logic.
By my reckoning, miles driven appear to have increased from about 2,150,000 mm to about 3,025,000 mm between 1991 through 2007 — a 41% increase. In the same period, by eyeballing the mean, I’d say that gasoline shipments basically remained around 60 mm gallons per day over the same period. That would imply an average all-in efficiency gain, over the period, of 29% (which is believable), subject, of course, to various unexplained — in this article — deviations from that mean (I could offer up some anecdotal suggestions as to why).
Given all that, according to the data presented, miles driven have decreased by a modest 2.5% (3,025,000 mm to 2,950,000 mm, approximately) from 2007 to 2012, yet gasoline shipments have decreased in the same period by 55% (60 mm/day to 27mm/day). That would be a red flag, IMHO — pardon the pun.
For an elemental critique of current policy to be sustained, data sets must align. They do not, in this case. The strength of our argument is our consistency, not our selective fear-mongering, as we regularly accuse the other side of doing. “Our qualities and our deeds must burn and glow through the gloom of Europe until the become the veritable beacon of its salvation.”
Somebody please explain, if gasoline volumes are down so significantly, and there’s no reason to doubt that, why are gas prices so high?
Current prices defy the laws of supply and demand.
Yes, taxes, I know (and agree), but gas should be cheaper, vis-a-vis the price of a barrel of crude.
It is, and always has been, whatever the traffic will bear. Lower gas prices also means lower government revenue as well as lower profit for the oil corporations. The consumer is given lip service and nothing else. If in doubt just wait for the next long weekend for the price spike at the pumps.
Excellent comments mr. Southam.
DanBC:
standards for gas vary all across north america. That adds to cost. Most gasoline refineries are on the eastern seabord and are buying oil at Brent oil tidewater prices – currently 105$/bbl.
I’m told by a very reliable source that not one of those refineries is profitable…because their competition in chicago (obama’s home state) is getting alberta crude at $30 below west texas which is only $93 – a $40 dollar difference.
Thus some are feasting while others are starving but capacity is limited – especially with all the different standards and thus prices – for now – remain stubbornly high.
If Chesapeake and others in the east start to supply the eastern refineries with significant fracked oil and the Gulf gets similar supply boosts from Odessa and elsewhere in texas and OK, then prices could drop – a lot and quickly.
// Well, it’s only gasoline consumption. Probably nothing. //
Mr. Durden stretched and scrunched the axes to make it look like a roller coaster compared with the actual EIA chart That & the helpful labels make it look like something, but your are right — it is nothing; it especially isn’t “gasoline consumption”.
// I queried the EIA and as I expected the key to understanding the chart is the statement the chart shows retail sales by refiners. I have been closely following the divestiture of the retail outlets by the majors such as Exxon and BP over the past couple of years, accelerating now because there is NO MONEY in retail, just in exploration and distribution – basically through the wholesale level.
Therefore the sales by the refiners at the retail level is of course rapidly plummeting.
It’s an interesting measure which has no validity whatsoever on total usage/demand.
Regards, Tim Wallace //
in calgary, i’m hearing layoffs, which till now was almost unheard of.
90 million out of work in the states, disability, food stamps. no money for gasoline if you ain’t goin ta work.
cupie doll to brainiac that figures this out………….
a-neck-do-tall, started walking 4 km to work for exercise, screw transit.
Gord-
The Brent angle is always interesting if one looks at VLCC lease rates, cost of capital, and Contango’d Crude pricing. If one were to borrow to lease the Very Large Crude Carrier, buy unwanted spot market crude and store it in something that floats, all at Fed level interest rates, the contango trade will work right up to the point it stops, then the curve gets ironed. Contango is the commodity term for when the nearer, contract defined, delivery month is cheaper than future, standardized delivery months, and reflects storage costs. These can be displaced by market forces, and have been a bit “manipulated” in the last few years.
The moving parts are larger than they appear in the right hand mirror.