10 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. Meanwhile South Korea is delivering ships on budget and on time.
    Defectors have indicated even the Norks army is starving.

  2. Politics has dominated China’s economy since Mao. P&L is not the dominant driver.
    Chinese finance is so murky that westerners don’t have any clarity. Their leverage is not that unusual in SE Asia but combine it with the politics and it is concerning.
    Found a interesting commentary about the massacre at Timmamnen Square years ago. The general take was that the Communist were snuffing out a growing democracy movement. My read was all about another rationale. The revved up Chinese economy was creating inflation in the eastern seaboard cities. Millions of workers migrating from the countryside were having their hopes dashed by cost of living and a lack of job opportunities. The Chinese government, knowing their history, realized that regime change in China has always been driven by economics rather than philosophy. Many westerners do not realize that the Chinese are not a homogenous but a amalgam of over 200 dialects and distinct regional groups. Unity is a ongoing challenge.

  3. Folks, if you think the Lieberals are a big deal then try doing business with the Chinese. I’ve been doing just that for the last 2 years. Murky is a very mild way of putting it. Bold faced lying, exploitation and indignant badgering are standard operating procedure for Chinese business people. They all want something for nothing and play the offended card if they’re caught in their own web of deceit. Padding order books and cooking financials is as common as eating rice to them.

  5. Interesting read and we should know by the end of this year whether volume as predicted is + or minus. Also on the same page I found this interesting :
    http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/154456/viking-shiptech-introduces-80-knot-ships/
    Could be the future of shipping. Of course they are still stuck on stupid in their primary goal of reducing CO2 content but the initial concept looks promising in delivery time reduction. Not much concern over being held hostage by Somali pirates either.

  6. Just an idle comment: why is the shipyard not given orders by the Chinese Government for aircraft carriers?

  7. Good question, John. China has in the past purchased several old aircraft carriers from other nations. It purchased initially two from Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Minsk and Kiev. Both are now retired as tourist attractions. It purchased the unfinished Variag from Russia which at the time was unfinished in the Black Sea. It’s now in service or near in service as the Liaoning. It attempted to purchase the Clemenceau from France after it was slated for retirement by the French navy, but apparently the deal fell through on the Chinese side.
    China wants at least one or two more, because India will have three in commission by the end of this decade. It’s acquired an airlanding system from Russia but it doesn’t seem willing to launch out entirely on its own construction project. Aircraft carriers are bloody complicated. So it would seem they’re still looking for used off-the-shelf, just like Australia and India.

  8. Because it turns out that aircraft carriers are really hard to build, is why. The Russians don’t know how to do it, they built jump jets rather than have standard jets take off and land on their decks.
    There’s also the small matter of pilot training. Not so easy.

  9. Deciding to spend the money for training needs alone for a new small to medium size blue water aircraft carrier
    and an up to date protective task force (with a realistically fuzzy 20 years hence operational goal) would be a
    daunting choice for politicians of a prosperous nation with a long maritime tradition. China and Russia with past
    bad naval histories and present economic distortions aplenty, have “neither the hats nor the cattle” to roll the
    dice on such a hugely expensive naval plan which could be negated by a cheaper new technology at anytime.

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