The post-mortems begin — for Cruz and “Big Data”.
I believe Trump ran a better campaign than Cruz for two reasons:
1) Republican voters not only wanted an outsider candidate for president, they wanted that candidate to campaign like an outsider
2) The conventional strategies and tactics on running in the presidential primary had become so stale that an outsider with disdain for professional politics found a new way to win using common sense
Trump’s simple, straightforward strategy of trying to win in every state, take as much free media as possible, have an inclusion attitude toward getting voters, and appear in front of as many people as possible proved to be sledgehammer against the old way. And unlike just about every other past self-funder, Trump did not let his campaign take him for a ride.
[…]
A final word about data-driven advertising: in the rush to be Internet savvy, I believe campaigns have overlooked how impractical it is to get a message across there. Because of the size constraint mobile is not conducive toward intrusive content like ads, and display advertising is incredibly ignorable and otherwise threatened by ad-blocking technology. While Twitter and other social media sites are effective for voter contact and media relations, the advertising on them is by definition a much weaker product than what you see on TV. Internet advertising is another space where campaigns seem to drift because it looks smart.
The size-constrained mobile is not conducive to content in general. Smartphones are wrecking the internet.
Could there be a simpler explanation?
Even though Cruz is by far the most knowledgeable candidate. Even though he is the best debater. Even though he has experience. Even though he is good on his feet when speaking. All that but many simply stamp him as NA (not applicable) because he is just too religious. In this day and age church religion is passe. (Superseded by Climate Alarmism religion.)
Am I wrong?
This very thought hit me yesterday. Too often politicians engage on highbrow rhetoric. I think a large portion of voters on both sides of the aisle tune this out.
Trump has campaigned using the language of the average citizen with very basic policy ideas.
The left has largely dumbed down the populace with their education policies. Don’t be surprised that campaigning with that in mind bears fruit
Yes.
Cruz, like all the other candidates is just another “bought and paid for” politician who is owned and operated by the non conservative NeoCon frauds.
Ron;
I think you are very right. Religion means more in the USA than it does in Canada but that doesn’t mean it is not under attack by progressives. IMHO religion creates limits to behavior and general conduct which goes against those who have no conviction and want to do what they ‘feel’. Consequently religious people are traditionally conservative. Most of know that many religious people are not conservative but they remain a easy target.
What has changed since all these Republicans wins?
The answer is nothing.
Everything and everyone is corrupt and on the take. The politicians, the media, the phony conservative blog sphere. You name it and its been compromised.
That’s why Trump has advanced to where he is today.
The White House is his if he can stay breathing.
kind of like Canada, where a conservative is a liberal, or at least spends like one and a liberal is at least as far left as the n d p, and the greens are just that green. good ole Canada where crimes are made up to fit the political circumstance.
Ted Cruz is a good Senator.
Senators have about a 12 percent approval rating.
Besides different styles of campaigning, there is another way to understand what’s going on:
What question does a presidential election pose for an voter? Typically, were you to ask a lot of average voters, you would hear something like this: “Which candidate’s political beliefs most closely resemble my own so that he, in office, will act in ways that I, by and large, will approve of?”
Large numbers of savvy voters have observed that, by and large, no matter who they vote for, their country and culture remain in steep decline, and the values and principles that they live by are increasingly absent from public discourse and governance. The institutions of government have been revealed, especially during the Obama administration, to be throughly corrupt and run according to values and principles that this public finds abhorrent. And so, perhaps for the first time in US history, a large percentage of voters are asking themselves a very different question:
Which candidate recognizes the cultural and political peril we are in, and will, by his actions in office, do most to destroy the current power structures and the institutions that serve them, not us, and replace them with institutions that more closely resemble those we mistakenly thought we had all along: that is, with institutions designed to conduct our public business in the best interests of a free, sovereign citizenry?
You nailed it Ron. Cruz is by far the better candidate but to a huge number of the electorate, overt Christians in Politics have become the kiss of death. Progressive nihilism is rampant when, for example, in the Spawn’s cabinet, Sikh headgear is proudly on display but I guarantee you wont see crucifixes etc. I may be an atheist, but even I can discriminate between those who want to de-secularize the state and those who, like Cruz are more strict constitutionalists.
Trump bobs and weaves between the strategic and the tactical, giving himself lots of wiggle room on a wide swath of issues: jobs, trade, security, immigration & competence. If he makes any headway on trust he can win big. Ayersinskies have surely noted his impending nomination.
If Hillary et al really thought they could beat him so handily, why their caterwauling now? I understand dead nominee campaigning Cruz battening down the hatches to avoid a Trump kill shot in Indiana, but why are the Dems, especially their shrill left, spouting insult slogans now? Tactics, or apprehension?
The standard PC response of slime and riot where necessary is not working; in fact it may be turning against the left, including with valuable independents who haven’t voted in the past. Leftist temper tantrum violence is now politically calculated on their puppeteer’s account, not Trump’s; so far.
Trump has beaten the left on PR, again so far. Can he tight rope between the mediocracy’s bias/ratings need? He’ll need to run the gauntlet to Nov.
Meanwhile the violent do-gooders will ramp up their vitriol with escalating & profane hatred against what they’ve decided is detestable. Their leaders no doubt yearn for a fatality they can pin on Trump, given their explosive past thinking.
Re: religion; I think it is overemphasized on the political front. Most Christians know the difference between honouring Caesar and loving God. Yes political science types still ponder it. Generally it’s just a case of, pardon the pun, preaching to the choir.
Oh come on all you “Christians can’t win” twits. Cruz couldn’t even get the endorsement of the ‘evangelical leaders’. What is happening is Trump is hitting the notes Cruz avoids and that is the perceived corruption of the establishment. Has Cruz run a similar campaign he would be in front because in so many ways he is a better choice. However when you, like Cruz, don’t address the disaster that the US federal government has become while your competition (Trump)is harping on it, you are not going to win the nomination or the election. What ever else you want to say about Cruz you have to say that he missed the message that would resonate with the electorate and Trump found it.
The major difference between Trump & the REST. Is that he wants
to redefine the Truman Doctrine that Democrats have continually misused & got into unnecessary wars. JFK,LBJ: Vietnam, GW bush: Iraq, Hillary: Libya, Syria, unstable Ukraine & ME……Regime Change without a stable alterative. The role of NATO & the need for the UN meddling. The whole Global system is F**Ked UP. AGW is a KNOW fraud.. ETC
“With the Truman Doctrine, President Harry S. Truman established that the United States would provide political, military and economic assistance to all democratic nations under threat from external or internal authoritarian forces. The Truman Doctrine effectively reoriented U.S. foreign policy, away from its usual stance of withdrawal from regional conflicts not directly involving the United States, to one of possible intervention in far away conflicts.”
BIG DATA: That is another word for Modelling and those depend on an actuate projection of Input or you get junk.. . Modeling is a tool that when used properly identifies initial critical paths, but useless after “all” fall into a unexpected Morass. The real time probabilities CHANGE faster that you can reprogram the flaws.
JMHO
Everyone who thinks Trump is an outsider, is a complete and utter moron. This is a man who has given more money, to more politicians, for more decades, than any 50,000 people you or I know. This guy was doing pay to play before I was even born (the year Saigon fell).
You useful idiots got your outsider; there will be no sympathy from me.
Related news: Lance admitted for depression.
It’s not his alleged Christianity. Alleged due to his charismatic, speaking in tongues father. It’s his fakeness. Do I think he believes wholeheartedly in the Constitution? Totally. However, he’s really unlikeable. I think he’s the smartest candidate ever but he not only acts like he believes that but Cruz also seems Aspergery. Like a total lack of noticing surroundings and people’s actions around him. See his choice of Carly.
There all bad choices! But if I where to pick it would be the one driven by and guided by convictions.
That would be Cruz. His record kinda indicates that.
Trump would not be where he is today were it not for all those dems ( not conservatives) voting for him.
These are the dems that are inspired by “celebrity” and would vote for Opra were she running for the Republican nomination.
Their having a blast.
” This is a man who has given more money, to more politicians, for more decades, than any 50,000 people you or I know. This guy was doing pay to play before I was even born (the year Saigon fell).”
Exactly why he wins.
He knows what politicians really are, no gullibility about what motivates our faithful public servants.
Best kind of “outsider” the citizenry can find.
Ever considered that even a Trump can get annoyed by people who will not stay bought?
Voters certainly seem pissed.
Any reason Trump may not share those feelings?
In business your word has meaning,a career politicians “word” is worthless.
What is obvious here,Trump is not a blind ideologue.
As a business man,he paid the piper, as a Presidential candidate he certainly knows the system.
Kleptocracy Rules.
US presidential elections are not about selecting ” the better candidate “.
They are popularity contests filled with misinformation flogged by the media.
“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” — Winston Churchill
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.” — George Carlin
The article and much of the commentary here is ignoring the obvious. Trump is not going to be President despite the many voices declaring the deed a done deal:
(1) Trump is offensive to too many conservatives and women for them to come out and vote for him as the Republican choice.
(2) Trump can still easily fall short of 1237 delegates with a loss in Indiana.
(3) If Trump wins Indiana, expect Cruz/Fiorina to drop out…but then run as an independent ticket, splitting the right.
(4) If not Cruz, someone else ready to soak up the disenfranchised conservatives will step up to the plate.
In short, Trump has as much chance to be President as he has of becoming presidential. The guy is a narcissistic no-nothing blowhard who has risen to prominence from empty promises, free media, and a reality-TV driven populace. The USA is in decline, shedding strength, order, and morality for fleeting comfort, entertainment, and free stuff. Canada and Europe have already taken the plunge.
The end is nigh.
Read this analysis a couple days ago and agree with many parts of it.
But the author completely overlooks the fact that trump is an absolutely unique candidate – he is arguably one of the most well-known – or rather recognizable – people on the continent. That enabled him to get millions – maybe into the billions of paid media for free. And thus he had a huge headstart and was able to campaign in a completely unorthodox manner.
The point is this: sans trump it can be argued that Cruz’ plans would have won him the nomination – clearly the best organized and on point and – sans trump – the most anti-establishment option (and trump is only pretending to be an outsider – with buddies like boehner you know he is part of the dean Martin GOP as high Hewitt has put it.
So take the column with a Very large grain of salt – otherwise the wrong lessons of the campaign will be learned.
Keep telling yourself that, Daryl…
Cruz is (was?) the best candidate ideologically. He’s just not likable. And I say that as a long time Cruz supporter. Plus the face – he looks like Joe McCarthy and the media chooses to use his absolute worst photographs to accompany every story. Trump on the other hand is a master showman and expert media manipulator. Plus his message resounds with everyday Americans. I suspect he’s underpolling by around 8-10 points. You know, people are afraid to admit to pollsters they support him. I think we’re looking at a President Trump my friends. It will be close, but only because the Ds have the media on their side, have made recent elections close by changing the country’s demographics both with legal and illegal immigration, and cheating whenever and wherever possible.
He hasn’t under polled in any primary save a few recent ones where Cruz and kasich abandoned the fight.
1. Trump WILL be the Rep. nominee … easily with the required numbers
2. There will be NO third party candidate splitting the bitter loser votes
3. The electorate is clearly and deliberately expressing faith in the ONLY candidate not already embedded in the bowels of our corrupt government, and beholden to the party purse strings.
4. Trump bots, Trumpeteers, cult members, celebrity worship … yadda, yadda, yadda … You are confusing the psychotic followers of Rand Paul with Trump voters. You want to play the erudite card … claiming Cruz voters are more educated, polished, and sophisticated. That sad elitist narrative is really pathetic. Trump voters know EXACTLY what they are doing, and why they’re doing it. We are hardly celebrity worshippers (those types don’t vote). We are casting our lot with the ONLY candidate who has the temerity to actually FIX (and reverse) the horror that our Federal Gov’t has become.
5. Harvard Educations have CREATED the government FAIL and slide into outright communism that is KILLING America. Cruz is “one of them” .. There is -0- conservative thought at Harvard. No, it is a petri-dish of antiAmerican, anticapitalism antiConstitution experimentation. Cruz is INFECTED by that crap thought … he is immersed in it. The voters don’t TRUST any more politicians with that so-called pedigree.
6. Jesus ain’t helping his “chosen” candidate … witness his insincere, psychotic, invocation of Jesus Christ as his copilot after his early Iowa win. One of the few states he actually WON (not a weazeled “delegate”
count). He has been in the crapper ever since then … because even Christians can detect bullsh*t USING of Christ by politicians.
7. Trump will beat Hillary as handily as Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter.
8. The only thing that can stop Trump is DEATH. And I don’t put it past … either … The desperate, increasingly irrelevant GOPe … let alone the death witch Hillary whose threatening associates tend to turn up DEAD. YES, I believe this is the LAST desperate attempt for the GOPe to hang onto power. And it appears as though they have PLENTY of bitter losers posting here who will pull the trigger …
I always thought that of all those vying for the Republican nomination, Cruz was most likely to be a good President if he got the office, but much less likely to get the office than several of the others. Trump is one of the ones I thought much more likely than Cruz to win the nomination.
If trump loses in Indiana he had no chance of winning in the first ballot. And then no chance period.
Let’s check in again in Tuesday.
All the other campaigns aimed to advertise on all forms of media. Trump aimed to be talked about on all forms of media. Result? Trump is the subject of discussion, the other candidates are spam in the sidelines.
Gord, why does he AUTOMATICALLY lose after the first ballot? I have often heard this, but then, I’ve heard many reasons up until now why Trump cannot be doing this well, and always manages to do the exact opposite on every single front. If he is 100 delegates short, do you REALLY believe he cannot cobble together that now that he is millions of voters ahead, over a score of states ahead, and twice the delegates ahead? Pfffft, pleas, LOL
The only reason I have head articulated why Trump will fail on subsequent ballots is…..because. But that hasn’t exactly worked thus far, has it? You Trump haters never imagined that he could possibly have made it this far, and now that he has………what?
Do pay attention.
About 40-50 percent of trumps delegates are Cruz supporters. Trump was absolutely clueless about the rules and got his clock cleaned in almost every state delegate detection process. After the first ballot almost all delegates are free to vote for whoever they want that us on the ballot – probably three people.
Trump thus is finished after the first ballot. (And it is unclear – iow the rules have yet to be set – if delegates who are awol on the first ballot will be counted for who they were designated to vote for or they will not be counted – whether trump is guaranteed a win On The first ballot even if he has a majority.)
For a guy who brags that he is the master of the deal and knows how the system works trump has so far proven to be an idiot in working the selection system. And his supporters seem equally ignorant.
What you are describing 8:43PM is the implosion of the GOP, are you not?
Under the scenario you layout, they are suicide junkies.
Trump wins the numbers(actual vote) and the voters are betrayed by the delegates, because they know better/support Cruz?
So the question I am left with,after the last two GOP presidential candidates McCain,Romney, do the GOP desire to be defeated?
Is this what they actually plan for?
Is the best money in being in perpetual opposition?
Small wonder Trump is winning,as the voters seem to know the Guild Of Parasites all too well.
Do pay attention. The “optics” of Cruz’s unanimous delegate WHOLE state wins casts the perfect image of “crooked”, “insider”, “business as usual” politics. The PEOPLE have spoken … and wherever their VOTES have counted … Trump WINS !! The VOTERS will NOT be DENIED … and IF … the GOPe play the “delegate” game … the VOTERS will punish the GOPe in the general election. The delegate “rules” game reeks of the LOSER kid down the block who always threatened to take his ball and go home if everyone refused to play by his non-standard, convoluted, rules he made up … to make up for his lack of physical skill. Eventually, that sad kid was left standing in the street clutching his own balls. Alone. again.
If the GOPe doesn’t YIELD to the voice of the VOTERS … I predict: sHrillary TROUNCES Cruz. not even close. I for one … will leave my presidential box unchecked if they pull this EVIL rotten politics as usual.
We Trump VOTERS are trying our best to have a NON-violent revolution. However, if our VOTES are trashed … then our nation may require a VIOLENT overthrow. Your choice GOPe
Not at all. If trump doesn’t get a majority in the first ballot he loses. That’s based on rules written well before trump announced his candidacy. A modest individual would admit they screwed up – trump will claim it’s a fix. Just as he claims his wine and Steaks and several other ventures were successes when they were abject failures.
As for the upcoming rules committee – the rules surrounding delegate commitment on the first ballot literally are in uncharted territory – it has never been an issue before.
So trump has a choice – Piss and moan like a welfare bum (or his texting/golf buddy john boehner) that the fix is in or be a leader and fight it out in the committee.
You spittle-flecked rage does nothing to make your case. The rules and the playing field are level for all. Only trump and his supporters complain about it.
Trump has small hands!!
Kate said ; ” …Smartphones are wrecking the internet…”
Yep. you are 100% right about that.
I do everything on a 15 inch screen laptop, my girlfriend does everything on a 5 inch smart phone or a small tablet ( 9 inch screen I think )
when I tell her to go to some address we see something completely different than on my laptop.
A lot is missing and the fact everything is so tiny makes it harder to read, thus many people simply take a quick look and barely read the headlines, maybe the first paragraph.
The smart phone is doing to the internet what the CD did to vinyl album covers.
the vinyl album covers were work of art and/or contained a lot of information, while CDs boxes are too small , no one cares to read anything on them and the art when that small has no “punch” we rarely even notice the art or the message or whatever.
some say I am a pessimist or a defeatist but I feel that starting around 30 years ago ( or maybe as far as the 1960s ) for every step forward we make with technological advances, we take a step back in some other way.
“If trump doesn’t get a majority in the first ballot he loses.” Therein lies the issue. However, once he wins IN this week and CA shortly, it’s all over. Totally, utterly over. Nobody will support Cruz from now on because a)he’s not a winner and cannot win; and b)Trump will have the requisite number. Cruz’ death throes was the pick of Carly. Nothing like being mathematically eliminated but yet thinking “Gee, this chick will help me get there.”
Besides, if Trump isn’t the nominee, there’ll be riots and Hillary will win by 30 points as a protest vote… and 30 might be low.
Kenji, you are exactly what is wrong within the GOP today. The malaise that may give the world another 8 years of left wing Democrat governance. God help us all.
If you don not get your way, you will just stay home. Or if Cruz wins the convention, it is time for violent insurrection. Nice.
I just do not get it. I am as conservative as they come and have been politically attuned and active for fifty years and I just do not see how others can look at Trump as the savior of the American Way. The man has no foundation, no bedrock principles and certainly no claim to being an outsider.
He has played the system his whole life, greasing the right palms and schmoozing with all the people you claim to detest. He is the ultimate insider – in both parties.
Be careful what you wish for and take it gracefully when a few years down the road you hear those well worn words: I told you so.
Ted Cruz is an IMMIGRANT! (So saith Heidi…)
“Ted is an immigrant. He is Hispanic,” Heidi Cruz said of her Texas senator husband, an American citizen who renounced his Canadian citizenship though he was born north of the border. “He can unify this party.”
“We have libertarians joining our cause. I have people every day from the Democrat Party telling me that they re-registered to vote for Ted as a Republican. Because they understand what he stands for, and he represents America.”
As of press time, it is unclear whether Heidi meant to say that Ted Cruz is the son of an immigrant father, or whether her line was a Freudian slip referring to the fact that Ted Cruz was born in Canada.
Cruz moved to the United States as a toddler in 1974 after being born in Canada in December, 1970.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/30/heidi-cruz-ted-immigrant/
“About 40-50 percent of trumps delegates are Cruz supporters.”
Cruz encourages duplicity.
Lovely.
“Smartphones are wrecking the internet.”
Betcha within five years there will be high resolution displays on contact lenses.
You can’t understand the difference between a billionaire donating to corrupt politicians as a distasteful but necessary business expense, and giving for ideological political reasons? Me thinks you protest too much.
Duh, it is a distasteful but pragmatic way to WIN project approval,… and then who more likely to identify and fix the corrupt system than someone who actually had to hold his nose and write a check to the corruptocrats.
Nice job completely ignoring my point … which is that the GOPe’s STEALING of delegates from Trump (like the Arizona votes) completely disenfranchise all the Trump voters and Trump WINS. There is NOTHING “level” in that kind of dirty playing field. Just corrupt politics as usual. If you actually BELIEVE these Trump voters will just roll over and vote for another pre-selected GOPe candidate … you are more ignorant than I thought.
BTW … Speaking of spittle-flecked … you should read what Drudge has posted about lunatic Glenn Beck. About how he rubbed his face in a bag of Cheetos for 4 minutes in a sad attempt to mock Trumps make-up. All it did was to reveal the make-up of Glenn Beck … as a sad, pathetic LOON. And … the article where GB says he has LOST $ 500K for following Cruz around the country … and has had to lay-off 40 of his Blaze media staff. People are tuning out this nut-job anti-Trump psycho faster than he can spittle insults at Trump … and his voters.
Cruz and the GOPe are FINISHED. They delivered 8 years of Obama. Now they are irrelevant.
Most delegates would be bound by law, for at least the first ballot, to the selection of their primary voters in the unlikely event of a contested convention, especially since Trump and Rubio are moving closer as we speak. Don’t be fooled by Pennsylvania free range delegates, they will honour their voters’ choices, but their convention votes are now but academic.
Gord doesn’t bother to do the math, opining very exceptional cases of Cruz’s ground game squeezing off delegates. The kill shot awaits in Indiana, with Trump now around 50%, meaning a clean sweep of the delegates. If Rubio gets VP and Trump wins in Indiana, he is warm and dry for the nomination.
That’s a good thing; then we can all dispense with Rove’s whiteboard calculations and Gord’s phantom rogue delegates.
Donald Trump has been continuously under-estimated.
You spittle-flecked rage does nothing to make your case. The rules and the playing field are level for all. Only trump and his supporters complain about it. Gord Tulk
You might try to explain Kasich’s slip (Statement) he made to Neil Cavuto (FOX) last week, that “He has friends on the Rules Committee that will allow his name to placed into nomination” That is the same 2016 committee that hasn’t been formed YET… Corrupting buggers each and everyone in the Cruz & Kasich camp.
Tuesday it will be all over…..Trump wins Indiana 50 to 29… and those playing childish GAME theory can huddle in a safe place…Piss-ants can’t follow adult logic.
Do pay attention.
Oh, spare me the homily, pseudo Mark Levin, you don’t carry it whatsoever.
About 40-50 percent of Trumps delegates are Cruz supporters.
LOL And who cares? Even IF your assertion were true, as long as they vote the way they were sent and are supposed to vote. After that won’t matter because it won’t go past the first ballot because he’ll have 1,237.
Trump was absolutely clueless about the rules and got his clock cleaned in almost every state delegate selection process. After the first ballot almost all delegates are free to vote for whoever they want that us on the ballot – probably three people.
Again, immaterial because it is not going past the first ballot. 1237.
Trump thus is finished after the first ballot. (And it is unclear – iow the rules have yet to be set – if delegates who are awol on the first ballot will be counted for who they were designated to vote for or they will not be counted – whether trump is guaranteed a win On The first ballot even if he has a majority.)
AGAIN, immaterial. 1,237.
For a guy who brags that he is the master of the deal and knows how the system works Trump has so far proven to be an idiot in working the selection system. And his supporters seem equally ignorant.
One thousand, two hundred, and thirty seven. That is the sound of inevitability, Gord. The Trump snowball is picking up steamnow. He is at 50% in Indiana. and ahead by a healthy margin in California. The stink of defeat and desperation is on Cruz, and that way too premature, pathetic Fiorina for VP gambit won’t avail him, it just outlines his obvious desperation.
Your constant cognitive approach seems to be – Trump is leading now … then a miracle will happen next … and Cruz will win.
It doesn’t appear to be working to well.