17 Replies to “Oil Price Scenario for 2018”

  1. The USD is nosediving lately. This is scary. I thought the tax plan just passed would do the opposite, but I guess having a weak-dollar president outweighed that. This is going to be a catastrophe.

  2. The American dollar is not nosediving. The Canadian dollar is going up with the price of oil like it always does. Do you remember when the price of oil was over 100 and the Canadian dollar was trading in the high nineties and over par?
    Yes, so far it has been a catastrophe that has made me a ton of money, and I suspect will continue to. Are you a disciple of the Paul Krugman school of economics?

  3. minuteman you are correct …unme is a friken tool …knows nothing about economics ,oil, usa, and barely anything about canada. ilove reading its ignorant comments though it make me feel really smart.
    unme does not understand that canada has 0 with out resources maybe some birther tourism but we destroyed our manufacturing industry with massive free trade deal …the trade off is much cheaper goods supposedly but when you through the massive social system we have in canada and then tax all of those cheap goods to oblivion to pay for the welfare state you can see why i am still a firm believer that canada is in extremely bad condition and it will only get worse under the next trudeau gov …as kate always says its not bad enough yet. and i beleive that usa will start pumping oil here really soon to reclaim a firm foot hold as a massive oil exporting country just gotta gut the epa and cut a bunch more red tape.
    If trump has done this in 1 year he has 3 possibly 8 more to go imagine what america will look like …will he attack the national debt though? i dont know.

  4. And in Alberta premier nutley is salivating over the increased price of oil so she can run even bigger deficits.

  5. “Do you remember when the price of oil was over 100 and the Canadian dollar was trading in the high nineties and over par?”
    Yes. The CAD did not ‘go higher’ at the time, the USD simply dropped like a rock in and from the early 2000s, as manifested by the apparently massive increase in the price of gold. That’s why the price of oil skyrocketed at the time. Lately the price of gold has undergone something of a spike that has taken it above $1300. Gold demand and supply are inconsequential compared to the existing supply, so what’s really happening/happened is that the USD is losing value. Going back through history, one can see that there is a range-bound ratio between the price of gold and the price of oil.
    “we destroyed our manufacturing industry with massive free trade deal”
    Wrong again. Free trade hasn’t destroyed anyone’s manufacturing. More reactionary crypto-leftist horsesh*t aka ‘conservatism’.

  6. And nobody made money going long in the US market in the 90s, mostly on US$ appreciation v.v C$. And?
    Are you surprised these things happen?
    Teeter totter logic.

  7. There has been a steady (and well documented) decline in Canada’s manufacturing sector for at least 17 years. More recently the word “stagnant” could be used to describe manufacturing in Canada.
    According to Statistics Canada (who are you going to believe) the services-producing sector is about 4 times the goods-producing sector and the former has been growing, most noticeably in health care and social assistance. “Manufacturing” has declined over the past 5 years but the big story was the previous decade.
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ40-eng.htm
    I am in the manufacturing sector and I have noticed a giant change over the past 17 years. We used to buy a lot of our raw material from the USA and filled out the NAFTA paperwork to import duty free. These days we don’t even bother because almost all of the product is imported into the USA (from China or Indonesia) and then resold through distributors. These products do not qualify through NAFTA. It has reached the point where it is cheaper to manufacture off-shore and ship the product directly to the client, to avoid high duties and taxes when bringing products into Canada and then later exporting them. Not a great job-maker.

  8. Oops sorry that last line is supposed to be ‘Jobs are a cost’. There is nothing wrong with employing fewer people; that’s actually a good thing.

  9. Mao’s solution to the “employment problem” was to simply deploy armies of peasants with shovels to do the job of a single tractor. Is it time to deploy all those women’s studies/ethnic studies graduates with oil cans and grease guns to keep the robots humming? Or should they return to college and actually learn something useful in our technological society. Damn! That sounds … hard. Best to take some $$$ from the government.

  10. Yes, jobs lost in manufacturing are a cost. Here is a graph that goes back to 1900. It’s hard to say that manufacturing is increasing. Manufacturing peaked during the 1940s (at almost 30% of GDP) and has been dropping ever since (now under 18%). Yes, a few minor rebounds now and then but a long downward trend.
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0027m/2009057/ct029-eng.htm
    If you are looking at manufacturing in terms of total dollar value, it would be better to look at it relative to GDP (declining) or at least take into account inflation (stagnant).

  11. ” it would be better to look at it relative to GDP”
    Says who? A relative decline =/= actual decline. Manufacturing isn’t shrinking it’s just less and less important to the whole economy. The same shabang happened with farming. It should be noted that there are…issues with the way GDP is measured.

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