What Would We Do Without Pollsters?

Onta-i-owe Political Animal Wynneing 34 Comments

From the comments;

The latest Ontario polls show … confusion?
EKOS reports a dead heat.
Innovative Research shows a 5 point PC lead.
Forum alleges a 14 point NDP lead, with the Liberals half of what’s reported in the other two polls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018

We need to ask at this point — do these pollsters do their surveys on the same planet? Or do they make them up as they go along?

34 Replies to “What Would We Do Without Pollsters?”

  1. Just like the Trump Derangement Syndrome polls which all predicted a “Hillaryous” win; I’d think the Ford Derangement Syndrome polls are ‘push polls’ to induce the weak minded to vote the ‘politically correct’ way.
    The only poll that counts is on election day, so it’s best to ramp up the ‘get out the vote’ effort.

    Prosit!

    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group ‘True North’

    1. My recollection is that the Founder and President of Ekos is Mr. Frank Graves. Mr. Graves is a long time and enthusiastic advocate for the Liberal Party of all Government(s) in Canada.

      Not knowing the reason why this is so; but when the Liberal Party of Canada lost an Election to an electorate giving a Minority Government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper; __Mr. Graves changed his Polling Company to the New Ekos branding. Here is hoping and steadily encouraged that Frank will be changing His Polling Company to a New Branding after the 2019 October Election.

  2. Forum fudged the numbers on first page, as page 11 has 40 pc, 36 ndp.
    Then again polls are only good for dogs and drunks in the middle of the night

  3. Never trust the polls. Here in America, the usual pattern (especially with liberal media polls) is to oversample
    Democrats from 10 nearly 50 percent. Someone recently stated that the media was engaging in psychological
    warfare. The left always plays the same game; In addition to oversampling Democrats, they purposefully
    delay election results, try to influence the results by skewed exit polls, and until the rules were changed, would
    call states for the Democrats before the polls even closed. The obvious motive is to discourage Republican
    turnout in key states.

    Felonia von Pantsuit’s odds of winning the election was at 95 percent on the day of the 2016 presidential
    election. While she won the popular vote, President Trump stomped her ass like a Narc at a biker rally
    in the electoral college. A difference of 27.5 percent qualifies as a landslide. In one of P.J. O’Rourke’s books,
    he had a list of 100 Reasons Why B.J. Billy Was A better President Than Jimmy Carter. Number 100 was
    Jimmy Carter gave us one thing Bill Clinton couldn’t: He gave us Ronald Reagan.

    I know little about the conservative candidates in the Great North, but if the Canadian people fail to elect
    someone other than the pusillanimous sissy mary Trudeau, you may never get a Reagan or a Trump. The
    manchild Justin’s legacy should be that of a Carter or Obama. If you put that leftist turd on the unemployment
    line, I’ll Buy a case of Molsens or Moosehead and celebrate with my brothers to the North!

  4. I have to say that with the current demographic that if the conservatives win it will be nothing short of amazing. the vibrant, ignorant imports will vote the socialist line every time just like 60% of all Canadians. there is not cure for stupid.

  5. I’m probably at odds with a lot of people who visit SDA, but I think that if the NDP were to win the Ontario election it would be as much a reaction to Doug Ford being the Conservative leader as it is a rejection of the Wynne Liberals. I am a conservative person both in temperament and politically, and I could not believe that Doug Ford won the nomination. I don’t care how good his policies might be, elections in Canada have largely devolved into identity politics and Doug Ford will be portrayed as drug addled Rob’s dumber brother, and a beneficiary of a fixed nepotistic nomination process. You can bet on that, and you can bet that many people who would have voted for the Conservatives already believe that, and are wondering who the hell they should vote for now. Hell, all you have to do is look at the trend of polling: the Conservatives have continuously lost ground since Doug Ford won the nomination. Try to imagine if Christine Elliott had won. Would the trend be the same? Not a chance.

    I truly hope I’m wrong and I’m just being pessimistic, but I think that the NDP have an excellent chance of forming the next provincial government. Horvath is far more compelling than Doug Ford in the identity politics game. I’m not saying that Doug Ford deserves to have the baggage with which he’s been saddled, I’m just saying that he will be portrayed and perceived as such while Horvath will be portrayed and perceived as sincere and caring. Far too many people vote on feelings and perceptions of “niceness” rather than specifics of policy, which makes playing the identity politics game so critical. The Conservatives should have voted in Christine Elliott so that there were three women facing off, making gender a non-issue. Now gender politics will be an issue for sure, with the NDP and Liberals cynically and dishonestly pointing out that the Conservatives didn’t vote a woman as leader and as such is some kind of horrific Handmaid’s Tale political party. Bet on it.

    If the NDP wins, everyone will be screwed even more than the Liberals have screwed Ontario. And I mean everyone in Canada. Here in Alberta I am watching the strangulation of business and the vilification of prosperity, both here and in BC. If you think it’s bad in Ontario now, just you wait.

    1. Here in Alberta I am watching the strangulation of business and the vilification of prosperity

      Vilification of prosperity for those of the wrong social status or the incorrect political persuasion.

      Don’t forget that Rachel “Make the Rich Pay” Notley set up her southern office in Calgary and hired a lot of people to do who knows what at 6-figure salaries ($250,000 per year wasn’t unusual). Then there was that young Dipper staff member, hired fresh out of university or soon thereafter, who absolutely had to have a fully-loaded Lexus (or its equivalent) for his staff car, which cost around $50,000.

      And, of course, there was the cabinet minister who hired a taxi to drive her all over her riding or beyond that, billing the tax payer for it, even though the trips were relatively short. She could have driven herself, but why should she when the dumb proletariat can foot the bill?

      Hypocritical? Surely not!

    2. oakgeo, I agree with your take, and I wonder how much foreign donations are influencing our provincial elections.

      1. I’ll bet lots from California. They stand to lose big on the Cap & Trade deal with Quebec & Ontario signed on & Doug Ford set to kibosh the deal, at least for Ontario. They send cash to California & not the other way around, the way I read it.

    3. Well for sure a PC win would have been easier with Christine Elliot. However, I think you might be being overly pessimistic. I just watched the debate and I think the is due with Horwath us that she is stuck having to defend NDP ideology. It is not easy to do. They came across as big union supporters and big government supporters. A lot of people do not like that. Doug did ok, given that he does not have an actual platform. The more we see of him, the more his association with Rob and Toronto will fade. Wynne was also good, but I think it is too late for Liberals to recover.

      1. “Doug did ok, given that he does not have an actual platform.”

        As if having a platform meant anything now anyway.

        Besides, Ford has the one solid platform that counts here: he is not Wynne or Horvath.

    4. So what you are saying is that a Red Tory would win hands down. That means more of the same only a bit slower. Is that a solution to our problems? We need someone who will do a 180, not keep going in the same direction as the progs. And that’s Doug.

  6. Remember when pre election polls had Hilary winning in 2016?
    Yeah, good times, good times.

    1. Funny too, that Hillary and her cabal all believed those polls too, until at least 8 pm. The crush from 8.05 to 10.00 pm remains a most glorious moment in the history of the Republic.

  8. I only respond to polls 50% of the time. When I do respond I talk like a liberal – I tell stories. They may or may not have anything to do with reality

  11. It appears that those that do polls are working for a goal that has been set by their preferred politicians. The rest is easy, you just dismiss a polling subject that would mess up your set result. You also formulate the questions to arrive at the correct result.

    1. That’s a trend that Conservatives should capitalize on. The green, anti-carbon policies of the Libs and NDP are not healthy for blue collar labour (nor anyone else in the longer term but they will be affected first). Astute (blue collar) labour leaders know this.

  13. On a related note:

    All polls for the Irish referendum on abortion on Friday had a close win for the Yes. Allowing for liberal bias in polling, that suggested a close win for No. Reliable sources had the outcome at 49% Yes, 51% No.

    The official outcome, of 66% for the Yes, was proof of massive fraud, not of Irish people’s suddenly turning on their unborn children.

    1. I’m really not that surprised. Ireland’s been a big EU booster for a long time now. The Catholic influence in their society has waned significantly, the church largely stayed out of the referendum, and many of the politicians were in the Yes camp.

      Leftism marches on all across western Europe. It’s only the former communist bloc that seem to have any sense of pride in themselves left; but let’s see if they hold onto that over the coming decades as those with living memory of what Marxism REALLY means leave this earth.

  14. Where is the fraud being duscussed? Is more information available? That sounds plausible, but very worrisome.

  15. Awe, I’m goin all in for Ford and the PCs. The Libs are toast after 15 yrs of mismanagement. Justin knows this and is staying away.
    Horwath is doing the swan song, a hanger-on, needy like Drake. If she don’t win, it’s buh-bye, hello legislative pension.
    Ford is the only leader doing this cause he doesn’t need the monay.

  16. The leftist fake news outlets are after Ford with teeth, nails and claws. The one I found hilarious is Maclean’s Magazine with their failing circulation numbers analyzing a successful business figure like Doug Ford. Want a good laugh?? Watch this!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9VbOyLRbeA

  17. Clearly, the poll results are tied directly to the size of the bong used.
    Thats obvious……….

  18. Step back.
    Take a breath
    Exhale
    Now
    Stop and consider all possible outcomes.
    Who could win who could lose?
    Is it going to be a majority or minority?
    Who has to win a majority?
    Who doesn’t?
    If its a majority who has the most to gain or lose by supporting the winner?
    Most importantly which parties supporters are going to consider anything but a majority a loss?
    Frankly, I still believe the quickest resolution to what ails Ontario isn’t neccessarily going to be determined at the polls on election night, its from the credit rating agencies determining the lending terms for the province. To be frank, the province being forced into bankruptcy court would correct the problem quickly.
    But I digress.
    Doug Ford may be able to keep that outcome from occurring but its a certainty that under the other options it will.
    Enjoy the decline.

  20. I understand Horwath took a debate mauling last night, acting like a rigid schoolmaster, constantly interrupting, while Wynne held up well. Given Ford’s dearth of debating ability, this is good news all around.

    Remember ZimBobRae. We can borrow ourselves rich. Yeah, more Rae days. Will unions desert the Grits for the more traditional Dippers? Who cares. Nobody believes their BS anymore.

    Check out their “platform.”

    5 Changes for the better:
    – free drugs and dental for everyone!
    – end “hallway medicine.” Right, see that canvas in the parking lot? Free healthcare for everyone!
    – “cut” hydro bills by 30%! Free hydro for everyone.
    – “take on student debt” by forgiving it. Free education for everyone!
    – protect the middle class by pretending the wealthiest and most profitable will pay; free stuff for everyone!

    It’s all free, free, free. Who doesn’t want that, free and equal. No wait?

    1. ZimBobRae. ROTFL.

      The sad truth is, nobody could possibly win an election with a platform that responsibly addresses Ontario’s fiscal situation. With interest rates on the climb and a global Sovereign Debt Crisis on the horizon, at some point Ontario has to default, implode, or inflate its way out of its colossal debt problem. Quebec isn’t far behind them.

      Provincial governments are able to borrow so much money because they are regarded as having the implicit backing of the federal government. If Ontario and Quebec begin to default, the rest of the country should rightly rebel at being forced to shoulder their debt.

      The resulting unity crisis will dwarf anything we’ve experienced so far.

  21. The most amazing thing.
    Was the first time I met or heard of,
    all these vice presidents.

    They were everywhere,
    It was the west coast.

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