Brian Zinchuk: Notley’s $350 million doesn’t come close to buying 7,000 rail cars and 80 locomotives
My math shows, on the low end, a price tag of $945 million for new rail cars alone. Coupled with ~$309 million for locomotives, and you come in at $1.254 billion. At the high end, it would be $1.484 billion for cars, totalling $1.793 billion including locomotives. Either way, it’s a heck of a lot more than the $350 million announced. Unless she’s leasing, Notley’s $350 million is only one-third to one-fifth of the money required to buy all these new trains, and no consideration has been given to staffing or operational costs.
Math is hard.
well that was easy enough, note the report states ‘up to’ 7000 rail cars.
ie stop when the money runs out or reach 7000 purchased.
see, it aint a lie or failed math, it’s fcukin’ PROPAGANDA.
wordsmithery.
or mebbe it is maths, ndpee maths . . .
And then you have choke point of not enough tracks. Alberta needs to shut down all western and eastern truck and rail traffic to eastern Canada and BC. If pipelines can not cross to eastern Canada or BC neither should any other transport methods. Do it on a rotating basis , randomly. Mon good, Tuesday no go. Thursday good no go Friday. Call it safety inspections. Alberta also needs to build a super refinery to produce gasoline and diesel. And upgraded light crude. Do not sell low grade crude. Sell train loads of diesel/gasoline and use pipelines for upgraded light crude. Sell the diesel at a discount in eastern Canada. Also cut off all natural gas to eastern Canada. Convert all natural gas into other products, Install huge plastic industries and use up all gas going to eastern Canada or sell it at a discount to the USA. Sell only crude to the US market. Do not supply BC refineries any crude. Take their market share by making your own super refinery and steal all the eastern and bc market share for refined fuels and by products.. Do not buy any of their products. Alberta needs to quit playing nice.
Maybe it’s time. http://www.truckspeaker.com/index_files/Page608.html
Thank you. I’ve said this before to deaf ears, even here. The time for talk is done.
Blockade BC, use any excuse possible, track inspections, “bomb” scares, whatever it takes. McMurray oil sands crude isn’t the only type of oil produced in western Canada. We produce a lot of crude that goes into cars, trucks, buses, trains, aircraft, construction equipment, trucking. Trucking is big. Most of our refining capacity supplies all our needs, including BC, past the border into NW Ontario. It’s our excess production that seems to get the lefties/greenies/commies ire. Well, they don’t own it, we do and if we have export markets to serve then we serve them like they do COAL, or trees. BC exports trees, we export petroleum products and crude. You gotta problem with that BC, the Federal Liberal Party??
I’ve worked multiple levels of the petroleum industry, across this country for over 35 years. You want fuel in Red Lake Ontario, it comes out of Edmonton. You want petroleum products in Estevan, it comes out of Edmonton. You pump gasoline in your car in North Vancouver, it comes out of Alberta, Saskatchewan and even Manitoba, as well as NE BC and yes most of that comes outta Edmonton (yes, they drill for oil in Manitoba, I’ve drilled those wells too). In fact, I’ve drilled wells from NE BC, down the foothills and east as far as Manitoba and points in between for over 30 years. I grew up pumping gas, sailing on Tankers on the Great Lakes, St Lawrence River and the east coast, before I moved out west. Seen it all.
The current blockade of western Canadian crude is a deliberate attempt by interested parties in the labor movement is to destroy the western prairie provinces’ industrial freedom and put it under centralized control. Included in all that here in Alberta is the destruction of the family farm, with a planned take over of “farming” by organized labor. Notley’s hubby works for CUPE.
When talk about banning pipelines goes on, they are talking about denying western provinces economic future, even the future of BC’s own oil and gas industry, while exporting 20 MILLION TONNES OF COAL from Port of Vancouver……to China mostly. We breath the crap they puke into the sky, as we are down wind of their CO2 pumping coal fired industries and power production.
These azzwholes in the LPOC and in the Lower Mainland BC, who want to destroy the complete western Canadian oil and gas industry, while importing Saudi crude and US crude (yes they do that, it comes from Seattle ….Canadian crude sent down the spur line of TranMountain) need a yellow vest revolt on a level that exceeds what goes on in France. This is out right economic destruction of a viable part of this country, for what? What did Alberta, Saskatchewan do to central Canada or BC to deserve this kind of economic depredation from them? Notley’s government are playing footsie with Albertan’s future viability, because they won’t be able to pay the bills for health care for starters, never mind education, or their own damned salaries and pensions of employees.
Shut down Seattle’s crude. Why sell cheap to them, or Canada. Their only other input is from Alaska, there is no pipeline into Seattle other than TransMountain’s spur line from Canada. Shut crude off to the Lower Mainland BC. They don’t want our crude then don’t give ’em any. They can f….ing walk! No petroleum products into BC, anywhere. We’re cutting production and producing for ourselves. F/U BC, get yours from China, you love ’em so much.
Then investigate joining the USA, thereby putting a stake into the idea that Canada is a country, when it hasn’t been one for thirty years, since PET-1.
Rail cars and locos. Smoke blowing, to keep the idea alive that she is “working for Albertans”. Notley is just throwing crap at walls to see what sticks. I’ll back that when they send them all to Burnaby and line the rail cars as far back as Hope BC, loaded with western crude (it isn’t just Alberta you know) for export.
Glad you get my point. Why pretend Canada works. It doesn’t. Don’t punish Alberta Taxpayers by buying rail cars when you don’t have the track. Build the biggest refinery in North America, and only do an Alberta Enviro assessment and tell Ottawa to PO and pound sand. I would end Ottawa collecting any tax in Alberta as well. Alberta should collect all taxes and dole out its share to Ottawa for necessary legitimate Federal purpose. End all Equalization Payments etc. Borders etc. Alberta needs to exercise its full Constitutional Rights. The Communists in Ottawa and BC have you backed into a corner quit whining and kick azz. Refuse to pay any Carbon Tax of any kind, it is unconstitutional. Let them take you to court, and even if they win refuse to pay anyway. What will they do send the non existent Army? Get the RCMP out of Alberta and refuse to enforce any gun control laws. It is legal. Ottawa makes Criminal Law, but it is up to the Province to enforce the law. Just refuse to enforce useless Ottawa laws.
PO’d In Ab
That my friend was good enough to put quotes to and post … Which I did.
Bang on from one who has also been involved in the patch from long before the Sands became a thing… It’s Long Long overdue for the “CLEAR Question” in this province and likely for Sask and Mb as well.
government math, any government math is always wrong, as in incorrect.
So she can’t do math – not at all surprising given most liberal budgeting processes.
As long as it’s all new union jobs. That is all that matters; more government, more payroll, more membership dues.
Kevin: Does that include gender balanced railway crews?
Switch the headline to “Alberta’s Bob Rae”.
Maybe Bob Rae was just “Ontario’s Tommy Douglas”?
Ah, the halcyon days of Zimbobrae, where the NDP tried to bankrupt Ontario by borrowing the province into wealth.
The old fashioned way. Like the UN. IOW, corrupt despots. Coming soon to a country near you if we don’t get our act together.
If that statist illogic confuses, think of legalizing marijuana to “keep it away from kids,” or that dividing Canadians unites them.
Under Grit hegemony that is, soon to be gender balanced and climate compliant, just like France.
This is why there is no substitute for a free market. You know that Transcanada and Transmountain and any company that actually does work in this area would know what is affordable and what isn’t, what makes sense and what doesn’t, and they would not be doing their calculations on the back of an envelope before a press conference. So here we have government attempting to step in and address a market failure that was created by government, rather than letting the markets work freely, and the result is ridiculous. A billion here, a billion there, what’s the difference?
The courts in Canada are out of control. The proper solution here and now is to simply build Transmountain yesterday. Yet because the courts have stepped into a jurisdiction where they don’t belong and killing Transmountain, essentially costing the country billions of dollars for no real reason (endless consultations), we have these absurdities happening.
Get rid of the Judges that are stupid enough to get in our way…
all Canadian judges are socialists bordering on out right communism.
It was just a nice big rounded up number, designed to only impress her simple minded followers. They really don’t care what the cost or the impact (or lack of), it’s just that they are doing SOMETHING, that makes them virtuous……
If it was Trudeau, the figure would be triple, and would accomplish less, there’s a lot of Liberal bagmen to grease after all.
These guys will be laughing all the way to the bank, as will Warren Buffet.
http://americanrailcar.com/Manufacturing/TankCars
Omg. Utter embarrassment at the stupidity of trying to play hero to Alberta’s energy industry by promising a fix but never really intending on following through. It’s not so much that math is hard as it’s words that are too easy. But lets NOT FORGET that under Notley’s Gov’t the U of A awarded David Suzuki, someone on a nearly life-long mission to destroy Canada’s energy industry, a frigg’n honorary degree! https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/suzuki-to-receive-university-of-alberta-honorary-science-degree-thursday-morning . Notley is not and never will be a champion of Alberta’s energy industry so nobody should be surprised of her inadequacy to deliver the goods.
If Notley had even a whisp of honour she’d call an election now so someone who will actually do what it takes to help can take over in short order.
Why is Notley low-balling the estimate?
Here’s former San Franciso Mayor Willie Brown explaining how things work:
“News that the Transbay Terminal is something like $300 million over budget should not come as a shock to anyone. We always knew the initial estimate was way under the real cost. Just like we never had a real cost for the Central Subway or the Bay Bridge or any other massive construction project. So get off it. In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.”
One could safely assume that if shipping all that oil by rail was economically viable, the railways would already be purchasing cars to do it. The fact that they are not indicates that this is a money-losing proposition. If there was any belief that Alberta could avoid insolvency under Notley’s leadership, this policy pretty much removes all questions about that.
I have this vision of 7000 unused railcars rusting on sidetracks somewhere for the next 50 years after the pipeline is approved in 1 year.
Yeah, Canada is a jurisdiction where nothing can ever again be built.
I am thinking about protests and injunctions for environmental assessments for painting lines on roads, patching potholes, and snow clearing. Let’s see if they will live up to their own rules…
If the pipelines are ever built, likely the original seller will get to buy them back at fire sale prices. #InvestInBerkshireHathaway
The biggest problem isn’t the cost estimate for the purchase of those trains but the fact that Alberta is buying them takes all the pressure off the Spawn to take any real action in getting the pipeline / any pipeline approved. If however Trans Mountain was approved tomorrow, it would still be a worthwhile purchase as the pipeline wouldn’t be completed for 2-3 years. At a loss of 10-15 billion per year currently, the fully loaded cost of acquisition is peanuts. Those trains can always be sold off to replace worn out or obsolete / condemned rolling stock if or when we see new pipelines.
I would like to see the SCOC Justices staked to the front of the locomotives during their inaugural runs with a sign saying,”These assholes would rather fellate more FNs than see new pipelines”. The Americans exposed to increased risk of rail over pipelines would then see the people responsible along with their compatriots from San Francisco funding the “Tar Sands Campaign”.
Sometimes I think that the anti pipeline protesters are funded by the railroads.
Would not be surprised if certain Buffett had a hand in it.
He is also the biggest owner of rail tanker cars.
He also owns Altalink, a power transmission company in Alberta.
You could say that he owns bigly.
John Chittick-
This doesn’t take the pressure off for the pipeline: per barrrl shipping costs will be far higher, and there probably a limit to how much the railroads will agree to carry.
This is stupidly inefficient; leading Canada backward.
You might be over-estimating the utility of the Spawn. He doesn’t want to see any pipeline built as long as Butts’ lips can be seen moving while the Spawn speaks. If he can get elected by relying on BC’s greens and the Eastern drones that resent Alberta by pretending to be working on pipeline approvals while pointing to the “temporary” relief that Red Rachel has initiated with rail cars he will do so.
Rail costs will add roughly $10/barrel to move crude to where it will fetch at least $20 more per barrel than existing egress. Of course rail is less efficient than pipelines but green theocracies and a compliant SCOC aren’t allowing them anymore.
Anyone really serious about getting things done on this issue needs to call the media, set up a podium at the Calgary Rail Yards and make sure a long line of rail cars that haul oil are the back drop. Then address the politicians in BC. Tell them a pipeline will be coming through their communities whether they like it or not… It moves, it gets pulled by a locomotive and travels at 80kmh.
A few pictures of Lac Megantic Quebec after the accident might get the pipeline going again.
Give em an updated, bigger, apocalyptic version. The “lower mainland” is Shithole central anyway.
That’s true for some parts of the lower mainland but not others. Not my first choice of places to live but better than any prairie town not named Calgary.
That was Bakken crude, which is extremely light, volatile crude. Oil sands is a heavy crude. Don’t know if the Lac Megantic effects would be possible with tankers loaded with bitumen.
Still the solution is to mix the bitumen with the Bakken crude, which would allow pumping through the proposed keystone XL.
the crude was ignited by gas. there were at least two cars of gas that caused the explosion that ignited the crude.
My understanding of WCS is that it is a mixture of Bitumin, various diluents, light and med crude oils….??
But all this talk about rail cars and locomotives is complete Unicorn Fart material….NONE of which will come to pass. Just NOISE to placate those STUPID enough to buy into her Marxist BS.
The lesson that the Quebec political class, and people, clearly took from that disaster, was ‘no more oil coming from out west through our province, EVER’. Not ‘pipelines are safer than rail.’
That’s Quebec for you.
She just wants to look like shes doing something. Ultimately the price of the oil is the price of the oil. If Alberta’s share increase because of her subsidies then there, at best, is a wash for Alberta. Given that all these cars and engines will be manufactured outside Alberta it is probably a significant net loss to the province.
Also, she doesn’t address rail capacity issues.
Rail capacity issues can for a large part be addressed by scheduled railroading, as shown by the late Hunter Harrison.
The Canadian federal and provincial governments paid for and for the most part still own thousands of grain railcars paid for by the taxpayer. Now it is time for the oil industry to get some of the benefits.
Don’t forget that this is the same provincial government that bungled the water bomber contracts over 2 years ago. Fort McMurray paid the price for it.
Red Rachel and Company: financial idiots.
I think it was the ’72 election where PET promises to twin the rail line through the Fraser Canyon. I dont know if that was ever completed?
I fish the Fraser (Chilliwack) each fall and trains are backed up all the time. They sit and then move off a 5mph. Looks like there’s a bottleneck there someplace.
I wouldn’t have expected Red to have asked the railroads if there was a capacity problem.
Rachel Notely’s thousands rail cars and some locomotives is… for the unemployed oil workers and their families to ride the rails, going across Canada looking for work. This just as during the depression, when the unemployed/indigent hoped on a rail car doing just that.
When the hundreds of thousands of others are impoverished, without the economic stimulus a thriving Canadian oil industry would provide, join the others “riding the rails”. Soon they’ll decide to bring their grievances for redress to the source of their suffering, the emperor Injustin in Ottawa. The Injustin will issue a decree from on high ordering the RCMP to to prevent the citizenry in mass from, as is their ancient right under Common-Law, petitioning the government in Ottawa for redress.
More likely than not, the Injustin and the infamous Climate Barbie will deem these protestors as Carbon Rioters. Then order the RCMP to stop them in Regina. Haven’t we Canadians seen this movie before?
California has a “high speed” train that is multiple times over budget at $77B and only has $9B in voter approved funding. So the government will need to continue to raise gasoline, and vehicle registration taxes, bridge tolls, excise tax on tires … etc. etc. to fund their $ 77B and rising greenie debacle.
Hint: it’s going to take another $30B alone to drill the required tunnels through the grapevine … in the seismically active mountain range. The voters were sold a pack of lies … all dressed up in green packaging, with a rainbow of ribbons, and a unicorn plush toy.
The media cartel paid for by the liberal fascists government will never let it be known.
That’s the beauty of press on the take.
So everything is cool.
Yeah,… it will become worst and worst. Smith on the QR radio spelled out what the CAN ! and what they CAN’T ! print, show, say.
Welcome to the brave new world. Ministry of Truth in Canada.
Eh
$350 Mil? Never mind the fictional rolling-stock, that sort of money probably wouldn’t pay for the track-work needed to keep the shiny new toys from derailing. How many ties and spikes (or Pandrol clips) need to be replaced every year, for starters? How much track-leveling, rail-grinding and ballast repacking needs to be done every year to maintain safety and efficiency? This is not your Grandad’s old Lionel train set, as some of the city-slickers may see it, but a trans-continental logistical lifeline. When the “snow-gates” close on the roads, the ploughs and blowers keep the trains running. However, It should NEVER be reduced to “either / or”. And don’t forget the trains that run up into the chillier climes in the North.
And the “highway types” shouldn’t get to sassy, either. What is the annual bill for repairs / rebuilding of winter-damaged roads?
If you buy them from bombardier,you’ll never get them anyway. It’s just a lot of hot air or the ndpee’s only point of reliability.
7000 tank cars of DOT-117 spec, taking 14 days to finish each, and given that there is a large backlog since all of the railroads have to replace their DOT-111 spec cars.
I’m guessing Notley isn’t going to the front of the line.
I watched ctv’s power point or whatever they call it for a few minutes this afternoon. What a bunch of self serving drivel. I turn on the fishing channel….
I can see why I haven’t had a tv for over 25 years.
They had a poll asking if the feds have done enough to help Alberta through the oil price crunch. 85% said they had.
Canada, dont ha just love it! Ha ha
By shutting down every pipeline project. Oh wait you mean the LOW price? That’s by design.
What is it that you Canadians don’t Understand… The crony Canadian corruption of who benefits from energy manipulation has financial & judicial control… Bought & Paid
If Alberta played the NOT withstanding Clause with regard to the Corrupt Judicial decision on the Trans-mountain Pipe Line, or shut off ALL the GAS going into the existing Trans Mnt..GAS that BC uses to create THIER wealth in sales to the USA Wash State….BINGO…. GAME OVER….
JMHO
Preachin to the Choir…..
But Notley is not now, nor has ever been a Fossil Fuel proponet….she is nothing but a FILTHY Communist. PERIOD – END of STORY.
100% in Bed with Gerald Butts as can be seen from Day 1 of her “mandate’ as she appointed anti-oil Greenpeace activist Tzeporah Berman to an Oilsands Advisory Group. Another Alinsky Acolyte and author I do believe of the Leap Manifesto.
Aonther Filthy Communist.
Good. It’s not the job of the Alberta government to move oil in the first place.
It is in their best interest to see the oil moved because oil not moving is unsold oil and unsold oil generates no revenue for the government.
If this poll at all represents how Alberta is perceived by TROC what’s the point?
Guess it’s our fault gawd hid the oil in Alberta…
Get ready for a battle with bongo the likes the country has not seen.
Albertans like a good fight with autawa.
Redd knows she’s in trouble. I’m thinking she might see this as an election issue and will put the spurs to bongo.
It could be a winning strategy.
Relax. It’s just “ear-marked” money – aka, re-election goodies. Remember how soon it took Notley to react to budget deficits and potential layoffs in the public sector? Alberta, you are being toyed with.
Meanwhile on FoxNews it was announced that after Trumps talks with the Chinese leader in Argentina that crude oil shipments by tanker to China would resume.
Boy, are we ever up the creek without a paddle in Canada.
It is really starting to look like we prairie folks have no place in Canaduh. Our rulers are decided for us before a single vote is counted in Alberta. Our oil and gas industry destroyed once again destroyed by central Canaduh, electing The Natural Governing Party Of Canada (Liberal Party of Canada). This is the second time in my lifetime, both by fellows named Trudeau. If we let this stand, we deserve everything they do to us. I am an old white guy, so I will probably be dead by the time the Liberals do it to us again. But your children and grandchildren won’t have any chances at a prairie lifestyle that you grew up with. I am just glad I did not bring any children into this world, just to live under the boot of Eastern Canada.
https://www.amazon.ca/Merger-Century-Canada-America-Country-ebook/dp/B00ENH6ZIC
Many think we should merge with the U.S. I agree. Otherwise would be folly, we would all become Chinese. Take your pick. Alberta should be the first to go. The U.S. may not want the ROC. It would serve them right. No plebiscite, just an outright friendly invasion. I will buy an American flag now!
Before piling on any more… numbers in the linked article don’t add up to me, any better than those put out by your typical NDP or Liberal premier or prime minister’s.
The author says fourteen rolling trains are needed because the one-way journey is seven days. Internet search indicates that driving distance from Ft. MacMurray to Vancouver is 1590 km. Rail would be similar. FM to Prince Rupert will be similar. Objective is to get the oil to international markets, so Vancouver and PR are the logical destinations.
Okay… seven 24-hour days… that comes to 168 hours of travelling at an average speed of 9.5 km/hr.
So the author appears to be using an average main line train speed of 9.5 km/hr. Hasn’t his arithmetic gone right off the rails before the train has even left the napkin? Because he has me picturing a line-up of exasperated engine operators pulling loads of grain, coal, potash, containers etc. lined up behind each of these imaginary oil trains doddering along mile after mile with its turn signal still on.
Nick, I wrote the column. You are making the mistaken assumption this crude by rail will be going to Canadian ports for export.
1. Tankers aren’t allowed on the norther BC costs.
2. I am unaware of any rail to ship unload facilities in Vancouver. If they do exist, they would not have that much in the way of capacity.
3. The most likely delivery point for this oil will be, surprise surprise, at the terminus of the Keystone pipeline, which means the U.S. Gulf Coast – particularly in the area around the Louisiana/Texas border to Houston. So you are shipping through either Estevan or Winnipeg, down all the length of the Mississippi. The eastern seaboard is a possibility, i..e Newark, New Jersey, but I am not sure if they have much in the way of heavy oil capacity. Anything eastward also means switching to a different rail carrier, which always adds time. Perhaps some day we will be export to ocean going ships from rail, but not today, that I am aware of.
Brian, good of you to take the time to follow up on my comment.
I went back and read your article again. I can’t see where you mentioned that these trains would be destined for US ports, and if that’s the case then most readers were likely to make the same mistake.
To further analyze in light of the surprise… I live near the CP main line, and had to wait for a coal train yesterday at a crossing. With nothing better to do I counted cars… there were 113.
So let’s consider the tanker trains… 14 rolling at a given time and we’ll up the car count to 130. That would be 1820 tank cars. If loading and unloading takes a day that’s another two trains and 260 tank cars, and let’s say two more standing by for good measure… now 2340 total. That’s only a third of the 7000 you came up with and probably two to three times the quantity needed if the oil could be shipped out of Vancouver.
Maybe you have another surprise in store, like what you were thinking but didn’t mention was Alberta would ship oil concurrently out of three or four US ports so there will have to be 42 or 56 unit trains rolling at any given time. Well, that sounds like a ‘worst case’ and least likely to be viable approach that will continue to enrich US interests at the expense of Albertans. But… I know from experience that NDP governments can find novel ways to blow wads of money that taxpayers don’t have (our BC ‘Fast Cat’ ferries come to mind).
Nick, first of all, tanker cars generally come in two sizes, ~600 bbls and ~720 bbls. Secondly, unit trains come in two sizes, 100 cars or 120 cars, and rarely anything other than that. And just because it is a black tanker car you see on the mainline, that doesn’t mean its crude. It could be any number of things, including canola oil from Yorkton.
Next, realize that all your numbers still only count for 60,000 bpd, not 120,000 bpd. You need basically two complete fleets in motion to get that.
My initial numbers were closer to yours. But I did not come up with the 7000 car number. Notley did. And since she’s paying for it, that’s the number you need to use. My estimates on a minimum haul were just that, low-end estimates, on the shortest haul I could envision. More realistic numbers would probably be 10 to 14 days each way. “If you’re putting it on rail, it’s going to be at least a seven-day haul. That seems like a reasonable, minimum number.”
Again, Alberta would have a better idea of final destinations, and therefore shipping time. While CN has a track all the way down to Louisiana, it doesn’t go to Texas. And CP, which runs through Estevan where I live, only makes it as far as Kansas City. Switching to different rail networks is one of the biggest logistical bottlenecks in the United States transportation system, to my understanding.
Oil railcars to the tidewater port of Churchill Manitoba. If nothing else, it will freak out their NDP Federal MP.
The gulf coast refineries are set up to take bitumen. When I heard Redd’s announcement that we’re in the rail business it never occurred to me that the trains wouldn’t be going to the US.