The Deplorables

Political Animal The Deplorables 88 Comments

Strike again!

Few if any of the pollsters predicted it. The resulting bafflement was expressed by one tweet: “How could polls, from every company, for months including exit polls taken on election day not just be wrong but spectacularly wrong?” It was a massive intelligence failure and one worthy of examination. All political parties presumably pay for accurate polling, even if it shows them losing, because possession of the true facts is the only way to adjust their strategy. But after three failed predictions in three major Anglosphere elections, it may be time to ask how the polls got it wrong.

88 Replies to “The Deplorables”

  1. Quite simple really. Liberals (leftists) signal their intentions in every conceivable format. Normal people watch the election gong show ,…. make a decision and then quietly go vote. My dear old mother (R.I.P) had a strong dislike for any leftist party (in Canada it was the NDP) but on election night she would phone the NDP for a ride to the polling station and return. She would vote Conservative and have a shit eating grin for several days. She was evil that way and did it for many election cycles. Probably one of the many reasons polls can’t be trusted

    2. I like you mom. Very hip lady it seems. Dummies wouldn’t have thought to do that bit of irony.

      Socialism can never win on it’s own. It must come disguised as something else. There must be cheating and lying and extortion and even violence. No on wants it once they understand what it is. The problem is the the educational system and the MSM are selling it as ‘something else’. The masses are often too slow to catch on.

      They deserve to be conned for a ride to vote conservative … and much more.

      1. Socialism is a lie in itself, that workers can’t self-determine prosperity and liberty, that the state is all knowing so supreme.

    4. Good for your Mom!

      Whenever I am polled, I always respond positively to the pollster from whichever Party, and if it’s one of the private and unbiased (joke) polling companies I always tell them I support the incumbent if they’re Lefties. I recently assured the LPC they had my support,in spades, and enthusiastically cheered for Justin.

      It is gratifying to see the Australians had the good sense to turf the Labor Party, their green initiatives are so destructive to the economy of any developed country it’s hard to understand why any non-government employee would vote for them.

  2. What right thinking voter would self identify to big brother that they are not part of the media party’ tribe? God help us if they figure that out because there will be other measures taken to avoid their election day big surprise.

  3. it may be time to ask how the polls got it wrong

    Because they were bought and paid for to “get it wrong”.

    1. Trudeau is in process of paying about 600 million to ‘chosen’ media to help them out because no one is paying for their fake news anymore. I cannot state how wrong that is …. it’s must not happen. It will totally destroy any credibility that may be left for the MSM. They are not trusted any more.

        1. The PMO, Turdhole, Telfart, Butthole, CBC’s Ben Chin, Gould, etc,etc. sociopaths all… they must wake up everyday and ask themselves, “what would Hitler or Stalin do ?” How did Hitler silence his critics, how did Stalin do it too… ? How did Hitler control the Courts…? How did Hitler take away the rights of gun owners, how did Hitler go about confiscating firearms… etc. etc… our Ethnic National Socialist One Party State constantly needs to ask itself this one relevant question… “what would Hitler do ?” and when they find the answer, do as Hitler would’ve done.

  4. As I stated post the AB election, it’s nit the margin of error- it’s the margin of liar.

    Reporting on polls should come with some kind of accuracy scorecard.

    1. And you were wrong then too. The UCP% of the vote was forecasted fairly accurately.

          3. UnMe,

            1). You were discussing/criticizing provincial polling results and you send a link to a poll for the next federal election.

            Oops.

            2) “fairly accurately”. Please define. For some people +/- 10% is fairly accurate.

            Others seem to want accuracy of 1%?

            Both of which aren’t going to happen

          4. 1) Oops. They have a strange website organization. Here is the correct linky: http://alberta.338canada.com

            2) While the UCP outperformed their numbers it wasn’t a huge difference. If anyone got the shaft from poll companies it was the Alberta Party.

      2. You’re a moron. The same inaccurate numbers as posted by CBC, the Calgary Herald and every other so calked expert. You remind me of Don Adams in Get Smart. “Missed it by that much!” In this case a small total of over 22%. I guess math was never your strong suit maggot

  5. I betcha Max likes the Polls are Wrong Again trend it could prove very good for Max and the PPC come this bloody October.

    SOME REASONS I’M VOTING FOR MAXIME BERNIER PPC 2019

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj6EGr5xxWM

    I gotta admit, I was ready to vote Tory in October; and then Rempel jumped on the tranny train and completely changed my mind for me. I don’t care if someone wants to live their life in delusion but I’ll be damned if I’ll vote for a party that wants to force me to take part in said delusion. PPC it is for me, vote splitting be damned.

    When anyone says you’ll split the vote, what it really means is that they think they can do better controlling your vote than you can. That you are too stupid and unprincipled.
    Even if Max doesn’t win a majority, I want the CPC to take note that they lost my vote by internally electing a weak leader with no vision and backbone to say what’s needed.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/metacanada/comments/bombfr/this_is_why_i_will_be_voting_ppc/

    1. I, for what it’s worth, will also vote for Mad Max come October. I can’t stand the lack of spine in Scheer and his people. As mentioned before, I’d like to see Turdo win majority. That is the only way for us in Alberta to finally separate from the failed state of Canada ruled by the Eastern mob. Win by CPCs represents status quo and no change we so desperately need!

      1. I’ve worked for various Conservative campaigns for 17 years and would vote for them again … if I thought they would be any different. Just Liberals in blue suites.

    3. At the moment I am leaning toward your thought process. Rempel seems to support the insanity, and I am still extremely rankled about the Scheer whipping his mps to sign onto the Paris fraud.

      1. Scheer signed on to the Paris fraud for the same reason da liddle thief signed Kyoto. Convenience. Since then he hasn’t done much except say if he wins government he will get rid of the librano carbon tax. A winning strategy. He hasn’t released a carbon plan.

        I’ll vote CPP for one reason. They are the only guys who can route the libranos and stop the stealing. Libranos by a second term have perfected theft. I’ll concede this, stealing in Ottawa can’t be stopped only slowed. The cabal of quebek criminals that prowl the halls of government are firmly entrenched. Canada exists to further their interests.

        1. Your fooling yourself if the CPC is more moral than the liberals and for stealing from French PM’s well go look into western Canada and just look into the Alberta Tories decades of control of Alberta and how much was stolen then.

          You all who think French still more than English are fools.

          The only reason the amount of French speaking PM’s who stole was to win the French vote in Quebec for iif Quebec was Spanish it would of been the Spanish speaking PM’s.

          Grow the f up and stop being fools.

          Sheer is a Globalist so go ahead and vote for Justin’s Globalist leftist cousin Scheer

  6. Did the poor, little snowflakes melt, when reality bit their asinine fantasy ?

    Are these Market Research Companies now going to advertise their expertise in fantasy polling ?

    What would the margin of error predicted be in fantasy polling, anyway ?

  7. Whenever a pollster calls I always tell them the truth.

    …but like the Prime Minister I experience truth differently. 🙂

    Seriously, how can a poll be reliable when it has so many faults? For example;
    – is the sample selection truly representative of the voting public? Is a bias built into the sampling
    – how many of those phoned don’t respond? And are they skewed to one party?
    – how many respondents lie?
    – how many respondents actually vote in the election?

    Bottom line? Only one poll really matters. The one held on election day.

  8. But regarding the results in Australia, it must have been the Russians who hacked the election.

    …or maybe the Chinese

    …or the Elbonians

    2. Well it can’t be that voters had the temerity to limit their government. It must be a nefarious and deplorable plot. (sarc off)

  9. When any self-professed “C”onservative voter these days is held to ridicule, or silenced in the public square, why would anyone volunteer their preferences. I used to gladly put candidate signs on my lawn during elections. Not anymore. The last time I did that, someone vandalized my vehicle in my driveway. Now I either keep my mouth shut about my voting intentions, or outright lie when asked. It isn’t socially safe to be outside the liberal herd any more. That’s why polls miss election outcomes, IMHO. Because folks answering the questions, will not admit to voting right-leaning parties. It skews the results up for liberals, and down for conservatives.

  11. Here is an article on CBC before the Australian election on how Labour will win (due to climate change issues) and how the Australian election will be similar to Canada’s election coming up in October (Labour = Justin Trudeau Liberal, Australian Liberal Party = Sheer’s Conservatives).

    “Australia’s opposition Labor Party led by Bill Shorten holds a slim lead over the incumbent Liberal-National coalition headed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, according to a survey released on Sunday, echoing what other polls have indicated. ”

    This article was posted the day before the Australian election under the heading “Technology & Science”.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/climate-change-australia-politics-election-canada-1.5137299

    The most like comment…

    “The reality is that Canada could go dark tomorrow and it will have no significant measurable impact on the planetary scale. Sorry, but that’s a mathematical fact. “

  12. If people think it is pointless to vote in their area because somebody is guaranteed to win then they may not vote for their guy. In my riding in the middle of Ottawa with No Time McKenna as the incumbent only an NDP could upset her…unless there is a vote split but even that is highly unlikely to give it to a conservative because the leftoids are thick as thieves.

  13. Why do polls get it wrong ?

    Simple . Any poll can be designed ( consciously or unconsciously ) to give the result the pollster wants .

    1. Exactly. Polls are generally worded in such a way as to get the answer they want one or another.

  14. I never get polled. Even when I had a land line. But if I ever did get polled I would certainly lie and tell him I was voting straight democrat. All to lull the Dems into thinking the election is in the bag, so that they don’t bother showing up on election day.

    1. Not surprisingly, we got polled several times in the recent Alberta provincial election, leading up to election day. We lived in an NDP held riding at the time (not now though). Before that (we’ve lived at the same address for some 20 odd years) we were never polled politically. We just hang up to robo calls in any event. I do my “polling” at the ballot box.

      By the way, we should have compulsory voting in Kanaduh, like Oz. No busloads to ridings and ballot boxes unless it’s your own. You don’t vote, or where you’re supposed to, you get fined. Period.

      The only people who support loosey goosey election laws here are those who think that their next door neighbors owe them something, they themselves won’t work for.

      1. “By the way, we should have compulsory voting in Kanaduh, like Oz. No busloads to ridings and ballot boxes unless it’s your own. You don’t vote, or where you’re supposed to, you get fined. Period.”

        Please leave me out of your coercive fantasy. We have enough people voting who shouldn’t be without this awful idea.

        1. Yes, only the intellectual elite should be allowed to vote. 🙁

          You can’t mean illegal voters, cause you’ve repeatedly said this number is very, very, small.

          So who does UnMe think should be allowed to vote?

          1. Honestly there is increasing merit in limiting the vote to a small elite part of the population. No one under 30 please and no one over 60 also please. No public employees. Maybe only landowners. Maybe extra voting power should be handed out to people with degrees. What is certain is that the notion that everyone should vote is totally wrong, as is the notion that power should be brought ‘to the people’. No direct election of the executive!

          2. Actually, I’d limit voting to those over 60. The youngsters haven’t learned enough in the real world to vote intelligently.

            But seriously UnMe, didn’t we already try your recommendations? Now where was it?…

            Oh yeah, the USSR.

  15. What to add?…yes.

    Given that polls have systematic biases towards globalist candidates, we can henceforth assume surprise victories by globalist candidates or proposals to be the product of massive fraud.

    (The pro-abortion referendum in Ireland is an example of what I have in mind.)

    Voting is compulsory in Australia, by the way. The bad guys don’t have “voter suppression” as an excuse this time.

  16. Australians voted for climate sanity, while the pollsters predicted the opposite.

     “Against all the polls, the money, advertising, and the non-stop media coverage, against all expectations and the betting agencies — the Extreme Climate Fix was a flop.  The Labor Plan to cut Australian emissions by 45% percent is now gone — per capita this would have been a world record sacrifice in a country already increasing their renewable energy faster than any other.

    Major betting agency Sportsbet were so sure Labor would win they paid out $1.3 million on bets two days early.  Someone cleaned up with a $128,000 win for a party that lost.*”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2019/05/it-was-a-climate-election-and-the-skeptics-won-australia-2019/

    1. Pollsters and betting agencies had it wrong again in Australia.

      I will and I hope our Australian posters here will keep us Canadians abreast as to what their new Government does as in are they keeping their word of what they promised they were going to do or did they revert to just another Globalist Government that lied like Brexit.

  18. Not sure of the time line as I don’t much follow Australia.
    But I believe (?) the tossed PM was advocating stiffening the JAIL sentence to 5 years for … offending someone’s feeeeeeelings.

    And isn’t it amazing all these sudden new memes, e.g., climate emergency. Mental health emergency for sure!

  19. As to the polls, in the post-fact age it seems that all polls are now push-poles. Fraudulent advertising.

  20. Agree with most of the points made above.

    I believe these polls are just more fake news designed to spin the ‘everything leftist is paradise’ narrative. Long before the term ‘fake news’ ever became popular, I have been referring to the MSM’s political polls as ‘manufactured news’.

    You know, leftards remind me of those mentally-deluded hoarders, standing on piss and feces soaked carpets in a rotting house crammed to the ceiling with garbage and filth, while exclaiming everything is A-OK in their world and then lashing out angrily at anyone who dares challenge that delusion.

  21. This here correspondent thinks of three possibilities.
    1. People will not tell the pollsters the truth so as not to be brow beaten into “correct” reply.
    2. Pollsters are asking question that aim fur desired outcome.
    3. Pollsters are massaging the numbers.
    Whatever it is the “science” of polling is damaged if it ever was reliable.

    1. By the way, I participate in polls for well known pollsters and most of the time they want the “right” answer without options.

  22. 1) Canadian pollsters like Nanos and Abacus are obvious in their bias so no one should take their results as anything other than propaganda and manipulation.

    2) Conservative voters are persistently undercounted. I do think that there is a “shy” conservative effect, but more accurately it’s a demonized effect caused by the chattering class. You’d think that by now pollsters would have put in a correction factor accounting for this demonization of conservatives to improve the accuracy of their polls. That they don’t indicates either deliberate incompetence or unconcious bias.

  23. Let the “woke” lefties walk about with their eyes wide shut…All the better for normal common sense folk.

    That CBC article noted above is a classic case of push news…Where they proudly proclaimed that 29% of the Australian populace deemed Climate Change to be the # 1 priority – Ha…so, that leaves 71% of the population not buying into the SCAM..?

    Spin with a pinch of utter BS… and in the end its what comes back to bite those bastards. Personally, I love it.!!

  24. The “progressive” left has limited contact with reality. Pick a subject: Education, gender, race, immigration, science – it all turns to sh1te when they touch it. Why would poll results be any better ? They can’t accomplish anything except cause pain and suffering.

  25. Elections are about misdirection are they not? Back when the earth was cooling I was a member of all the parties that had free beer nights at a brewery.

  26. “All political parties presumably pay for accurate polling”. We don’t see those polls. Published polls are meant to sway us or discourage us.

  27. When the Poll predictions are based on a Probability scheme, that is built on several Probability schemes. The house of cards will fail from ONE simple mistake…..Did I mention that CAGW has near zero odds that it is correct, for the same reason….

  28. Around supper time.
    Landline rings.
    Check.Unknown number.
    “Hello?”
    “Hello,#**# here taking a survey…
    Click.
    Polling is pure Fake News, just as “public consultation”, by government is long on the CON , the salt come later.
    The few opinion polls I have bothered to start,usually have no “Box” for my answers.The offered choice of “answer” all being slanted to the desired result.
    Gee I wonder why,the polls get it wrong?

  29. ” three failed predictions in three major Anglosphere elections”

    What failed predictions again? Brexit and the US election were forecasted accurately. Australia was off but there was a tightening of the margins leading up to the election itself. The UCP% of Alberta’s vote wasn’t that far off either.

    1. “Brexit and the US election were forecasted accurately.”

      Why do you persist in lying like that, when you know we all remember what happened? Brexit and the election of Trump were -not- in any way even close to accurate. If I remember right, only one (1) poll company got the Trump election right.

      Canadian elections where the front-runner is a Conservative are always wrong.

      1. Please see below yes Brexit forecasts were in the margin of error. There was no huge miss by the polls. Same with 2016.

        1. I think your missing what the problem was : nearly every news outlet had a version of Clinton will win by a landslide, Brexit is dead in the water, the Labour party of Australia can’t lose. I didn’t see pollsters cautioning the news people about stats until after the embarrassing upsets. At that point it looks like self serving ass covering by the media and polling firms.

          The other problem is that the majority of the mistakes seem to happen in one direction – underestimating the conservative vote. That indicates a systemic bias, inaccurate methods or other QA/QC flaws. When the failure remains uncorrected, credibility is shot. Perception is really important.

          Remember, in science precision and accuracy are very different. Precision is how closely the results are to each other. Accuracy is how close the result is to the true value. So all the polls predicting A gives great precision but if B is what happens then the accuracy was bad.

          1. 1) I think maybe you and I are the only ones that get it then: it’s not the polls its the pundits. The pundits, being somewhat left of center, may be projecting their hopes onto the polls. That’s a fair cop. To say the polls are wrong is well wrong. Nate Silver (PBUH) nailed this down in the article I linked to.

            2) I don’t think that was the case in NFL, and as I stated, the mistakes aren’t. The most recent UK election was forecasted pretty accurately. Brexit and the 2016 and 2018 elections were polled accurately.

      2. “Why do you persist in lying like that…”

        “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. ” ~ Joseph Goebbels

        Just part of SOP from the resident libtard NPC.

  30. To all Canadians,

    It’s getting more and more disturbing.

    This week, Trudeau told social media companies they will be fined if they don’t prevent the spread of “disinformation.”

    How is this different from censorship?

    We also learned the government will unveil a list of medias deemed “reliable” under a multi-million dollar subsidy program.

    Then, a Liberal MP, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, proposed the creation of a new “flexible and efficient” mechanism to give warnings or fines for offensive speech online.

    That could be you if you tweet about the Liberals being a bunch of corrupt liars.

    This is no joke.

    Minister Maryam Monsef used one of my tweets as an example of “online violence and hate” that needs to be “stamped out.”

    We Canadians are in real danger of losing our freedom of speech and freedom of the press.

    The Liberals seem willing to attack the very foundations of our democracy to ensure their re-election.

    And the other parties are not saying anything.

    I’m the only one in Ottawa who is pushing back against this rising threat.

    Please help in anyway you can, reposting, telling your loved ones, pushing back against the corrupt governing Liberals, asking your particulate party association why they are keeping quite and allowing all of this to be happen without a word of opposition?

    Many thanks,
    -Max

  31. “Despite often inaccurate and innumerate criticism over how polling fared in events like Brexit, a recent, comprehensive study of polling accuracy by Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton and Professor Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin found polling accuracy has been fairly consistent over the past several decades in a variety of democratic countries in Europe, Asia and the Americas.

    The media narrative that polling accuracy has taken a nosedive is mostly bullshit, in other words. Polls were never as good as the media assumed they were before 2016 — and they aren’t nearly as bad as the media seems to assume they are now. In reality, not that much has changed.”

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

    1. “Another Blue wave is comin, eh UnHuman?”

      Yeah probably. The 2018 MTs was likely just the first bullet in a clip that getting unloaded into the GOP’s chest.

      1. Never mind the very narrow slice of Congressional Districts represented, nor the long established mid term wins going to the party out of power. Completely ignore the inconvenient details … and extrapolate some imaginary “trend”. Meh. We shall SEE … shan’t we?

        In the meantime … the left are going apoplectic… shutting down Free Speech (every conservative voice) and funding wave after wave of illegal voting “caravans” (read: Invaders) into our country … all to aid their desperate attempt to unseat the MOST SUCCESSFUL and PRODUCTIVE POTUS in my lifetime.

        And what do the Democretins offer? Another aged old white person awaiting “his turn” at the presidency. The American voters are that dim-witted.

        1. You’re ignorant but what’s new. The 2018 midterms were not normal midterms. Massive turnout. Everyone’s base showed up and the GOP got destroyed. Totally run out of the suburbs into dying rural exclaves. Oh and Texas and Georgia got purpled. That’s also a big deal.

          1. So how do you explain Australia? Compulsory voting, so you don’t have “voter suppression” as an excuse.

          2. This has nothing to do with Australia, but it appears that in Australia there was a ‘hidden’ reserve of voters who were (rightly) made to fear Labour’s agenda; the Liberal campaign of (entirely well-founded) fear worked. This happened before in reverse: Labour had a similar miracle re-election in 1993.

            Perhaps Australia’s political right has learned to actually connect with people instead of just blaming ‘elites’ and unsubstantiated voter fraud allegations.

          3. Yep. Voting for an ollllllddddd WHITE MAN … is really gonna “energize” the increasingly EXTREMIST Democretin base. Trump has already INCREASED the number of Latinos and Blacks voting (R). And it’s only gonna INCREASE … as both these groups watch the Democretins flood our country with their CHEAP replacement workers. Sorry, the the BOOMING Trump economy is all the lesson needed. Oh, and that whole FAKE Russian collusion bullshit is smeared all over the (D) Party. And when Barr completes his systematic exposure of the corruptocrats who attempted a coup to overturn the VOTERS choice?

            Old man creepy sleepy creepster doesn’t have a snowballs chance. Trump 2020 … not even close.

          4. I hope you never take up boxing. Bobbing and weaving while getting drilled by haymakers. Punch drunk long ago.

      2. “… just the first bullet in a clip that getting unloaded into the GOP’s chest.”

        And then it pretends to like and know guns….

  33. Was outside feeding the dogs this morning and took a poll. They stayed up late last nite watching the movie Max. They watch it every Saturday nite.

    So I asked ’em, who you guys votin’ for in the federal election? MAX! they retorted in unison.

    Good thing they have an understanding owner…..

  34. Reference UnMe at 1:17 pm and 3:31 pm re the Alberta election results versus 338 pollster prediction.

    Party Poll% (range) Actual%
    UCP. 48.9 (43.7 – 54.1) Actual 54.9

    NDP. 38.5 (33.6 – 43.4). Actual 32.7

    AP. 7.2 (5.6 – 8.8) Actual 9.1

    LIberal. 2.5 (1.9 – 3.1) Actual 1.0

    FCP. 1.0 (0.8 – 1.2) Actual 0.5

    Green 0.6 (0.5 – 0.7) Actual 0.4

    Notice anything?

    ALL the actual vote percentages were OUTSIDE the error ranges provided by this pollster.

    If I was an intellectual I could say the pollster’s results were comparable to the actual. Now imagine a haughty intellectual accent, “You see all things are comparable, that is capable of being compared”

    But since I am not an intellectual, I would just say the pollster’s popular vote results were wrong. Please note that the 338 pollster was so confident of his analysis that he published the results to 0.1%. He was wrong for all parties.

    With any model; a) check your assumptions, b) check your methodology, c) remember GIGO, and d) compare your model to the real world AND publish the results. Note to readers; even when predictions match real results remember the modeller may have just been lucky.

    1. You forgot Unlogic’s exceptions that prove the rule. Conspiracy types and other such idiots just move to the next stupidity.

      Meanwhile, in the US, former Obama officials think they can stay dry dancing between the raindrops of their sedition.

      They are wrong; so is UnMe, but that’s nothing new at all.

    2. The UCP results were barely outside the MoE. The NDP was only a bit farther out. You are building an outrage mountain on a molehill of a discrepancy.

      1. UnMe, You seem to be unable to accept that your example pollster got it wrong.

        Correct response? Admit that the pollster got it wrong. Then you, and the pollster, try to figure out why.

        I try to learn from my mistakes, perhaps you prefer to double down on yours (see your last sentence).

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