Y2Kyoto: Playing Chess With Pigeons

7 Replies to “Y2Kyoto: Playing Chess With Pigeons”

1. All that the alarmist had to do was check Wikipedia:

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nimbus_5

   Nimbus 5 was launched from Vandenberg in 1972 with an orbital altitude of roughly 1100 km and an inclination of 99 degrees. That would definitely be considered polar. It also had IR and microwave spectrometers and radiometers. I think Tony wins this one.

2. In addition to the early 1970’s satellite MW record … there is ample PROXY data and information about historic sea ice levels … such as ice cores, ocean sediments, and historic observations of native peoples and explorers/hunters. This proxy data is a HUGE component of “science” accepted and utilized by the Warmists … such as tree rings as a proxy for temperatures.

   So why the sudden abandonment of ALL the proxy data for Polar ice? And if it’s “unfair to combine satellite measured data with proxy data … then compare modern proxy data with historic proxy data.

   The Warmists are filthy liars who use fraudulent arguments when their tainted science goes awry. Cherry picking data graph ranges is so blatantly transparent … and UNscientific. They’re LOSING the narrative.

3. Tony misses the point,to be a full member of the Cult of Calamitous Climate, one has to be willfully ignorant of History,Geography,Scientific Method and Human Nature.
   It takes real talent to be as stupid and ugly as our Concerned Ones.

4. It should be easy to test whether Tony Heller is speaking the truth as he mentions “Nimbus 5 satellite” and images of Antarctic sea ice measured by microwave technology as early as 1972. Calling NASA …

   https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1972-097A

   A number of things jump out.

   1. Nimbus 5 satellite mission began in 1972. Tony 1, Mervyn 0
   2. “The polar-orbiting satellite consisted of”. Mervyn claimed Nimbus was non-polar.Tony 2, Mervyn 0
   3. “Primary experiments included … a surface composition mapping radiometer (SCMR) for measuring the differences in the thermal emission characteristics of the earth’s surface”. Tony 3, Mervyn 0

   Also, the first Nimbus satellite (Nimbus 1) entered service as a polar-orbiting spacecraft for meteorological research-and-development. All 7 Nimbus satellites were polar orbiting. Nimbus 1 did not have any microwave technology onboard, nor did Nimbus 2 through 4. Nimbus 5 was the first satellite to use microwave technology.

5. But here is a link to a paper showing Arctic sea ice extent from 1953 – 2010.

   https://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1359/2012/tc-6-1359-2012.pdf

   The Fig. 4 in that article shows that 1979 was not “peak-ice” as Heller claims. Also, there are other links that show Arctic ice extent estimates by year back to the 1930s. From the early 1930s to 1960s extent increased, peaking in the late 1960s before starting its descent to the present day. This suggests a period of over 100 years (assuming extent is even periodic). To properly measure one period of the natural variation in extent we would need satellite data to 2100 and beyond.

   Heller -1 for claiming the climate alarmists cherry-picked 1979.

   From nsidc.org…

   “Beginning in the 1960s, researchers tested satellite and airborne instruments that they hoped could track polar sea ice. Cloud cover and dark polar winters stymied many of these missions, leaving gaps in the data record. In 1972, NASA launched an experimental passive microwave instrument, the Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR), which operated until 1977. ESMR was a single-frequency instrument that showed potential because it could monitor sea ice in darkness and through clouds, but the resulting data were plagued by technical glitches that were laborious and time-consuming to resolve. As researchers innovated more sensitive instruments, the unsteady trickle of sea ice data soon became a dependable stream.”

   “On October 25, 1978, the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) began its mission aboard the Nimbus-7 satellite, launching the modern sea ice satellite record. SMMR was more advanced than ESMR, and used multiple microwave frequencies to more accurately observe concentration, or the percentage of sea ice covering a given area, and extent, or how much of the ocean is covered with at least 15 percent sea ice. In addition, SMMR was capable of distinguishing younger, thinner ice from older, thicker, and more resilient sea ice. In the 1980s, NASA contracted with NSIDC to archive and distribute the resulting sea ice data. This data later became part of the NASA Snow and Ice Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) at NSIDC.”

   In other words, from 1972 – 1977 Nimbus used ESMR technology to map polar ice extent experimentally. In 1978 SMMR was launched and the following year was the start of the continuous record we have today. Climate scientists didn’t cherry pick 1979. NASA scientists just happened to launch the satellite for that year. If you look at the ice extent back to the 1950s there is nothing really remarkable about 1979. Ice extent peaked in the late 1960s and has decreased ever since. We may be at a low point and future extent could increase. But we don’t know because WE DON’T HAVE ANY DATA to conclude either way.

   1. 1979 was the highest year with satellite data. No “-1” should apply. The terms of discussion were dependent upon all-earth coverage, which would be extremely difficult to get from surface records. Yes, the instrument was being calibrated at the time. That doesn’t mean the readings should be discarded.

      The launching in 1979 happened to hit the maximum. No multi-year training/testing of the instrument in this case, the numbers went into immediate use. That’s inconsistent with discarding data from the previous satellite when that data was used to make the case that this should be done.

      Fully agreed that we don’t have enough data to conclude anything. In the absence of compelling data otherwise, I think we should be focusing on determining when this inter-glacial will end. Because when it does, the natural climate change that follows will be beyond the alarmist’s wet dreams.

6. ….and you can add this bit of info as well.
   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24336597_Arctic_Sea_ice_1973-1976_Satellite_passive-microwave_observations

   It simply goes to show that not one of these ARROGANT fks has even the slightest bit of integrity in that it took me all of about 7 seconds to find that link.

   And really, thats what this is about: RELIGION (of Climate Crisis) & Scientific Evidence….ALL of it, not bits and pieces that fits THEIR incorrect Narrative. These folks are that ones that took Social “sciences” in University and as such are fully indoctrinated being your classice useful idiots: schmarmy uppity mentally WEAK trolls.

   Fk em all…and may those in Upper/Lower Canada FREEZE in the DARK..

   BUY Propane – Help FREEZE Quebec