Former FDA commissioner, Dr. Scott Gotleib;
In our report on steps to reopen America, we reference the need to be able to test at least 750,000 people a week. That number is being discussed. Here is more clarification on how we derived it, and what it means.
750,000 is the approximate number of U.S. medical visits per week for influenza like illness during peak flu season. We use it as estimate of what’s necessary in setting where #covid19 isn’t yet circulating, and we want to detect furtive spread. That is not the situation now.
Right now, #covid19 is epidemic. And even when we’re likely to seek to reopen parts of America in May and June, there will be baseline spread. The epidemic won’t simply collapse. Against that backdrop, we need much more test capacity to safely make transition to normal life.
A 98% recovery rate makes it no worse than the flu. I guess next year if there is anything left of the country, we can close everything down during the regular flu season as well. CDC says that 90% of all those hospitalized have/had underlying medical problems.
You arent seriously this dumb. The worst flu seasons have a death rate of 0.1-0.2%. H1N1 is 0.01% (not a typo). They also never overwhelm the health care system. Current flu season is over.
Todays Covid19 case death rate in the USA is 4%. 40x higher. 400x higher than H1N1.
Oh its also far more infectious. The comparison to the flu is beyond ridiculous.
You’re conflating mortality rate with case fatality rate, and the biggest problem with the case fatality rate is that it’s extremely sensitive to how many people you’ve diagnosed. We already know that Kung Flu is underdiagnosed by orders of magnitude. Current best available models predict a case fatality rate of 0.02 to 0.05%. Worse than the flu, but it’s not Cap’n Tripps and Randall Flagg is not stalking the land.
It may be interesting to see the number of cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths from the Teddy Roosevelt. We are probably about three weeks away from knowing those numbers.
The problem with our data sets is that they’re either hopelessly corrupt (Italy, China, New York) or slightly to uselessly unrepresentative (Italy, Diamond Princess, USS Teddy Roosevelt).
The ships are probably our most accurate data sets and the population is large enough to be a useful sample size, but neither “people who can afford to go on cruises” nor “active duty members of the US Navy” are going to be representative samples for the US at large.
Between the two they just might cancel out; cruise ship passengers trend older and less fit and swabbies trend younger and in good shape, so somewhere in the middle will be a useful yardstick.
I think what may prove really interesting is how many crew members got the disease, before symptoms were visible. We may also get a better handle on the death rate for younger, healthy individuals. This could be of use in designing a return to work strategy.
I agree that a warship is not a place for physical distancing, so it would not be indicative of how masks and physical distancing could facilitate the return to work strategy.
Thank you Daniel.. I see the above 4% fatality rate canard repeated so often. At the beginning of all this Scott Adams, who has since retreated back into the warm bosom of conformity, tweeted that to understand a rate, you need to know the denominator. No one will know the denominator unless they test an entire population to see who has had it and who hasn’t. Or you do a random sampling of the population to see who was infected. That’s not going to happen any time soon.
My point is that you can’t stop a virus from progressing any more than you can change the weather systems of the earth. Get out and about… roll the dice. I’ll take the odds that I’m seeing.
Allan I have found that your posts exhibit a level of stupid that is unquantifiable. The numbers I quoted are from the CDC. I guess you have more accurate info than them.
So, Alan, how do you even know the Covid death rate is 4% if we do not know how many people even have it? For flu, you give us overall death rate in the population. For Cov8f, you give us per caeses identified. Something wrong with your logic, and if it is highly infectious, we are not going to stop it. Sitting down society is insanity.
I am not sure Allan cares for logic. Certainly not if it gets in the way of his narrative. I believe his purpose here is to deceive us and I would advise ignoring him, if not for the fact that I learn so much from the efforts of all those, whom I have learned to trust here, when you all try to straighten him out. Thank you all. ….Does that mean I should thank Allan for provoking you?
On three different sites I’ve asked what death rate would be acceptable to permit the country to go back to work.
a) 1 in 100
b) 1 in 1000
c) 1 in 10,000
d) 1 in 100,000
Only one person replied, saying “a”.
Trudeau and Trump will make that decision. Suppose they pick the exact same criteria.
let’s assume the start up is phased in some fashion and we have physical distancing, masks etc.
Now we get the inevitable COVID deaths. The liberal media will say how wise and prudent Trudeau was, while blaming Trump for every single death.
Answering my own question. Choice “c” above. There is no right answer, only what level of risk each of us would accept. For calibration, the chance of being killed in an auto accident in the US is 1 in 8500. So I’d also consider a number between choice “b” and “c”, but I’m not quite there yet.
I’ve been doing this thought experiment alot. The “inevitable COVID deaths” are on going and so there will be nothing for the media to point at. We all know the media is going to suck Trudeau’s…. for the remainder of his time in office. But he’s finished himself off with this gigantic deficit that his party will be incapable of controlling (if you can’t reduce a $30B deficit to $10B or even $15B, how are you going to come back from a $200B deficit).
What matters will be the US engine will be restarted before other countries and they will gain an advantage over Europe and will crush China economically. The Chinese/US cold war is definitely ON. I believe we will see a massive revolution in China in the next 10 years.
There is a good item at The Burning Platform. The road to perdition is paved with evil intentions. Re-opening??????
Below is a link to AEI’s pdf version of the report with considerably more detail.
National Coronavirus Response A ROAD MAP TO REOPENING
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf
I believe that the good doctor spells his surname “Gottlieb”, which, I think, means “love of God” in German. Please correct the spelling.
In OT form, Ahab’el.
Where is Canada’s road map? I asked my wife’s relative in Germany about this on the weekend and she said that Germany has a plan.
I did a five-second search this morning and found this:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/06/business/germany-coronavirus-economy/index.html
“Germany has a plan.”
Then Europe better hope it hasn’t been drawn up by Angela and her immigration geniuses.
We’ll do what the US does, only later and less competently.
This. How many times in my life have I seen this now.
This is one case where this isn’t accurate. The USA has, in absolute terms, more than 20x our number of cases and 30x our number of deaths. In per capita, they’re nearly triple our case load.
Their federal structure, and their more right-leaning culture, worked against them. Plus their extreme polarization; their Ds and Rs are much less likely to even pretend to put their differences aside for the good of the country than they were even 20 years ago. Our Cs and Ls simply don’t hate / distrust each other that much.
I’m not sure if conservatives here or elsewhere have fully grasped that Trudeau is winning his next majority right now. He’s not going to get any blame for the virus reaching Canada. The Conservatives have made no effective case whatsoever that he’s done anything wrong; they’re AWOL on that front and would stand accused of putting politics above country if they tried very much. Not to mention Scheer’s a dead leader walking and presumed front-runner MacKay was reduced to spluttering about the party leadership race; nothing coherent there. The economy will be wrecked for a long, long time, but see above; Canadians aren’t going to blame Trudeau for it. They’ll remember that he came out daily, appearing calm and collected, even as his wife was ill with this very virus, and that the government did move quite swiftly to set up things like the CERB.
185 seats. Easy. Maybe more.
I have been advised by a Facebook {Al Gore Rythm} I will not be blocked from using Free Speech to express My Opinion when providing Facebook with ‘content’ similar to what has been used on Facebook for years.
I will receive My “Papers” as used in the Communist Era of Eastern Germany “where’s your papers” since North Americans sacrificed Blood & Treasure to bring the European world out of the Fascist Era to the Anocracy* Era. __ 11:45 EST.
[ Anocracy is the first descriptive of an Oligarchy State — Anocracy is not an alternative usage for Democracy — Anocracy is the reason for Brexit & Wexit — Anocracy will not be available as a Dictionary Word if reaching out to Wikipedia .]
Their federal structure, and their more right-leaning culture, worked against them.
That’s a funny way to spell “more intensive urbanization and higher population density”.
Which, last I checked, tend to be left-wing things.
That’s fair. New York was bound to get it bad once it got in there. And the eastern seaboard states are the most dense, so yes, they’re getting it the worst down there in general.
Still. A pandemic is a legitimate time for the state to exercise emergency power to protect the public health. I think too many conservatives have lost sight of that and are making fools of themselves; even Sundance over at CTH has gone a bit cuckoo over this whole situation. It’s not an endearing quality and I fear it will chase away moderates who could otherwise have been reached. And do so in a way that they’ll stay away from voting anything that even hints of conservative for a generation. But I’ve expressed this sentiment here before and been practically called a communist, so what do I know.
“…so what do I know”
Well, since Daniel filled you in, a little more.
You’re coming along nicely. 🙂
Sure. He may win a majority in Canada’s seven provinces if people overlook the fact he broke up the country.
He doesn’t know the answers to simple questions and when he does answer he’s wrong. No big deal.
At least Trump, with his own shortcomings, is running unoposed in the US.
Juthtin the Black and the Corrupt Liberals of Canada let the virus in and he especially wants it here for as long as possible. I actually think the federal public service and the provinces are battling the Prime Minstrel and His Corruptibles to get the country rolling again.
The PMO needs to be obliterated and made illegal.
I also think Trudeau is not interested in reopening. There have been no signals thst this is in the works. We are just relentlessly scolded. These people don’t care about Canada at all. The provinces and the business community must rebel. I don’t see how opening the country could be much worse than the situation in Sweden where they never closed. Trump at least appears to understand the importance of getting people back to work. Write to your premier.
In New Brunswick, the Irving-owned Brunswick News have been doing their usual bang on impression of Neues Deutschland newspaper(official organ of East Germany’s communist party).
Their agenda/advice:
Lock yourself up, don’t even look at anybody, pray to your government and love yourself some politicians.
And for heavens sake, don’t mention money. Or pay attention.
And oh yeah, I almost forgot the raison d’etre for the Canadian Media.
It’s not all about fooling Canadians all the time. Although it kind of is.
It’s all about pass the pesos.
A piece of the action.
Share your wealth.
The pot has doubled.
Liberals in power.
Money for nothing
and the lies are free.
Do you know what it’s like to live in a province where all the Media(and the province) are owned by a single wealthy family?
Where the CBC is considered a more reliable source of news?
Where Politicians and their Courts and Big Business and their Media have more conflicts than the Balkans, and more regular nailing of NBers than you would find in a French brothel.
With a third of the population being reliably Liberal voting French.
And the rest being (reliably on their knees to kings) Loyalists descendants.
Who were ground zero for The Liberal Party of Canada’s welfare plantation to Worldwide Globalism/Communism in a generation scheme.
It works.
As you’re finding out.
Money for nothing.
Open it up. Let everyone get it.
Quebec old folks home is a case in point: 31 dead people. Only 5 of those had the Chinese Flu. That means 26 died of neglect caused by employees ceasing to come to work (because of fear). Neglect, not the China Flu, killed most of those people.
When the government lets us all out of our houses: I still won’t know anyone who got the China Flu and I won’t know anyone who knows anyone who got the China Flu. I’m not going to feel lucky or relieved. I’m going to feel suspicion and rage.
Excellent point Richard. The cure must not be worse than the disease. I will go shopping tomorrow. I will wear a bandanna, so that I don’t get stoned to death for defiance of conventional wisdom. Other than that I will behave as near normal as possible.
You’re assuming they are going to let you out.
But don’t worry.
The fate of democracy in the whole world.
Thousands of years of progress.
The very liberty of Mankind.
All of it may very well rest in the hands of Donald J. Trump.
Now you can worry.
And in Canada…….well, we’re just fucked.