After all, Putin’s reputation until this moment has always been as a shrewd ex-KGB man who eschewed high-risk gambles in favor of sure things …
That Ukraine has allowed itself to be used as a pawn against a powerful neighbor is in part the fault of Kyiv’s reckless and corrupt political class. But Ukraine is not a superpower that owes allies and client-states judicious leadership—that’s the role of the United States. And in that role, the United States has failed Ukraine. More broadly, the use of Ukraine as a goad against enemies domestic and foreign has recklessly damaged the failing yet necessary European security architecture that America spent 75 years building and maintaining.
Why can’t the American security establishment shoulder responsibility for its role in the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine? Because to discuss American responsibility openly would mean exposing the national security establishment’s role in two separate, destructive coups: the first, in 2014, targeting the government of Ukraine, and the second, starting two years later, the government of the United States.
In the last year there have been two attempted “pro-democracy” inter-elite coups in pro-Kremlin states on Russian borders: Belarus and Kazakhstan. Both of those so-called “color revolutions” failed, but Ukraine represents a much more pressing concern, especially given the country’s push for NATO membership, which Biden officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly encouraged last year with no intention or possibility of actually making it possible. Yet rather than compelling the United States to rethink the wisdom of planting the NATO flag on Russia’s border, Putin’s escalating rhetoric—and troop movements—only made the Biden team dig in deeper.
This is a game that Biden and key figures in his administration have been playing for a long time, beginning with the 2013-14 Obama administration-backed coup that toppled a Russia-friendly government in Kyiv. This was the so-called Maidan Revolution, a sequel of sorts to the George W. Bush-backed Orange Revolution of 2004-05. Much of that same Obama foreign policy team—Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Victoria Nuland, Susan Rice, and others—is now back in the White House and State Department working in senior posts for a president who personally ran Obama’s Ukraine policy.
What did all these figures have in mind for Ukraine? The White House and U.S. foreign policy experts from both parties are united in claiming that Ukraine is a U.S. ally, a democracy, and a beacon of freedom, which are no doubt fine words to hear when you have been left to fight Vladimir Putin on your own. But to understand what Ukraine truly is, we must start where all geopolitics begins: by looking at a map.
Grab a coffee. This is a good one.
Like so many similar articles, it completely misses the mark. This has nothing to do with any threat to russia or Pootin himself. None threatened russia, it is a myth. It is a lie, that neither Pootin not anyone in Kremlin believes.
Russia is a threat and a King Midas of shit. Pootin miscalculated. He thought he had an opportunity to whip up some domestic support like in case of Chechen massacres or invasion of Georgia or Crimea. So he struck. Pure opportunism to appease the permanently violent sociopathic horde that is russians. Not an exaggeration, russians are exactly that, from child brainwashed into myths of great russia (never great at anything but military) that is permanently under siege. So far he appears to have bitten somewhat more than he planned, whether it is more than he can chew remains to be seen. He can regroup like he did with Chechnya or he may fall.
Either way it is pure opportunism for the sake of domestic popularity. Nothing to do with any threat.
Results:
– Finland will join NATO
– Sweden will join NATO
– Ukraine will join NATO
– Putin will suicide himself with 3 bullets to the back of the head.
Some OSINT people think the botched invasion is a setup for a coup.
Now you’re just trolling like The Awful Truth, except for the other side.
First two will happen. Next 2 depend on the outcome of this war. Let’s ask Marco Rubio who is on the Senate intelligence committee:
“We know what #Putin’s plan was:
– air dominance in first 12 hours
– Destroy #Ukraine military comms in 36 hours
– Bypass major urban areas,cut off Eastern Army,encircle #Kyiv & get govt to flee within 48 hours
-Install puppet govt within 72 hours
He is still 0 for 4”
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497772049283969028?t=3xsLtmEnniPmsBK7XLqZ5w&s=19
In the unlikely scenario (and it is still unlikely) that Pootin is humiliated to the extent that he calls a retreat. How far do you expect him to retreat to? He may run from Kiev, he may fail at his attempt to install a puppet regime in Kiev, he may withdraw from the south and not bridge to Transnistria but Pootin has strong support in Crimea and breakaway easternmost regions. So chances that he will abandon those areas are zero. Especially that those are very easy to hold.
No country can join NATO if it has unresolved existing border disputes. You would need Pootin pushed out from all of Ukraine including Crimea for Ukraine to join. Good luck with that. Or you would need Ukraine to relinquish her claim to Pootin’s gains. That’s a maybe but not bloody likely.
Colonialista: Could Pootin be after Ukriane’s Resources as they are very rich in Resouces and Pootin needs more to keep his economy going by selling to China, Germany and maybe some other countries as they want to Rule the World!! I think Russia is Broke. Just a thought.
The Nordic countries join NATO? What for? They are seeing in real time it is a nothing burger. If the Baltics are taken, is Germany going to war with Russia? Nein. NATO will fracture before war, only two countries have the military for it, and neither has the stomach for it, after the last two decades of stupidity.
My husband has a colleague in Finland. He said they aren’t really concerned and don’t see a threat towards them from Russia.
Interesting thread from an EU MEP:
https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038
THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.
4/7 If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.
I have no idea if the above is true, but videos of Armored vehicles isolated and alone without fuel, lines of destroyed Armored vehicles, and stories of the airheads at Kiev Airports being overrun before Russian ground supports arrive do not look like an unstoppable Russian juggernaut. We will know more by Ash Wednesday. Pray for the Ukrainian People. Pray for the Russians that do not want a war either.
Either way, I do not think 175,000 Troops is enough to subjugate all of Ukraine, which is 233,000 square miles and 40 million people.
“If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. ”
I am very skeptical about this claim. Russians have amassed huge stockpiles of weapons. They are not going to run out of weapons. They are not going to run out of ammo either. What they may be short of is the most advanced ordnance, the precision guided intelligent ordnance. That is a possibility. When it comes to dumb arty shells or bombs or rockets and standard delivery platforms they have plenty.
Logistical bottlenecks are another thing. If they did not expect a long war then their logistical train will be stretched. How long will it take for them to resolve those issues and get fuel, ammo, spares and replacements coming into the theatre at rates they need I will not speculate.
Long war will not be popular at home. So there is a possibility that they may decide it is not worth it. Fallback and cement their positions in the breakaway regions and call it a win. That realistically is the best possible immediate outcome for Ukraine. Anything beyond that is a pipe dream.
How was Putin going to benefit from this?
What are his odds of success?
If he fails, he and Russia will be ruined
Seems to me, if you were a bloodthirsty tyrant, you would pick your spots better.
The implication is that putin has been building toward this moment for 20 years.
Whether you are a chess player or a gambler, this was not the moment to attack, or attack in this way.
The only thing we can say with any certainty is there anything that comes out of the media is likely a lie.
But it looks like many are happy to lap it up.
I have no doubt that Putin is a cold-blooded killer, but I also think he’s a nationalist and loves his country.
There is far more to this than meets the eye
I agree.
When the Western Alliance of globalization banking system collapses, the monetary printing presses stop and people turn on the banks.
Russia is well positioned when the smoke clears, his fuel infrastructure will be making money for Russia as fossil fuels will still be needed for some time.
Maybe Putin’s dying from something and he wants to see his dream fulfilled before he goes?
If he fails, he may be ruined, but Russia won’t be. They have gas and Europe does not. Maybe John Kerry can go to Europe and sell them some wind for their windmills.
Nobody is going to drive a tank brigade to Moscow when they have Nukes.
One slight quibble with what you said Nini. It’s not that Europe doesn’t have gas, it’s that Europe refuses to develop their gas. Because Russian payment to environmental groups in the west was a resounding propaganda success.
” beginning with the 2013-14 Obama administration-backed coup that toppled a Russia-friendly government in Kyiv.”
On such issues I have taken the habit of watching the Japanese news. They seem to be more interested in impartial coverage of the the events than the “weaving of narratives” we see in western media. On TBS there was a recap of the week’s events and the reporter went back to the 2014 coup in Kiev.
Good for you. Trusting nothing out of Canada’s legacy media and most out of the States and Britain is prudent personal policy.
People seem to have a lot of very strong opinions about what will happen. I mistrust that just as much as I mistrust my own ability to predict the future in Ukraine.
My fear is that if other powers get involved, this war won’t be restricted to that region. If America mobilizes to any degree, what are the odds that China will start to get busy in other parts of the world? What will the Turks and the Iranians do? I hope and pray that the American administration doesn’t continue to act with the recklessness they have exhibited so far this year.
The American public is against getting involved. Only 26% supported military intervention. The Dems know this is a losing situation in an election year. So if they do act, it’s because something horrific is brewing and they need a big distraction/scape goat.
I don’t agree 100% with everything written, but the gist of it gibes with what I’ve read at other sources. What he doesn’t focus on is Putin’s astonishing revelation that he suggested Russia join NATO in 2000 to Bill Clinton, who did not receive the idea warmly.
Imagine, my friends, if Clinton had taken Vlad up on his offer. Do you think the Islamists would have dare tried 9/11 in a world where NATO controlled the entire northern hemisphere? Do you think Chairman Xi might be a little more circumspect in his designs, faced with that foe? Do you think that, over 20 years, we might have 1) saved billions of dollars in arms expense instead of going into debt for it, and 2) invested all that intelligence and energy into solving other human problems in health, industry, and community? I do.
And, for what possible reason could Clinton have said no? There’s only one that makes sense – the boys at General Dynamics and Electric Boat and Raytheon have too many dollars at stake for peace to be profitable. So, no peace for you – or me.
“What he doesn’t focus on is Putin’s astonishing revelation that he suggested Russia join NATO in 2000…”
Maybe because there is no proof of it ever happening other that Pootin recalling it just when it is most convenient?
Russia in NATO would be a disaster anyway. Everyone who joined NATO after the fall of Berlin Wall did so out of fear of russia.
“Imagine, my friends, if Clinton had taken Vlad up on his offer. ”
Yeah imagine a word when this would be Clinton’s decision. Hint: it is not this word.
It could be a false memory but I do seem to remember “talk” about getting Russia into NATO. But, it was discussed with Yeltsin, not Putin. This article touches on it.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2018-03-16/nato-expansion-what-yeltsin-heard
This issue is being played black and white.
No one is concerned that much of the west has been lost without a shot being fired. If you think you still live in a free country and have rights in canada, you are simply an idiot.
Who do you think the ruling class represents in Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, britain, France etc? The people or Schwab?
So what we have is the Schwab, Soros controlled faction, who have openly stated their goal of the destruction of the West, and are validating their words with actions, and you have Putin apparently deciding to commit political and national suicide.
Putin’s apparently the bad guy and the folks who have taken over western governments get a pass.
Too much in this does not add up.
“Putin’s apparently the bad guy and the folks who have taken over western governments get a pass.”
Yes, no, this is the bullshit whataboutism.
Whataboutism is just an excuse to continue with binary, black and white thinking.
Most of life is a choice between two evils. Smart people can point out the evil on one side and also recognize the evil being done on the other side.
Putin is bad, and our leaders are corrupt.
+++Ward
Ward, yuppers to ALL of that.
Yup Ward.
Exactly.
Create a conflict.
Declare War.
Invoke “War Time Measures Act” or its equivalent.
All criticism of our Dear Leader is now sedition.
Dear Leader and drunken Comrades now use absolute power to destroy all resistance,opposition and loot the tax payer even harder.
And why not?
If the herd was to focus on the mendacity of our Parasitic Overload,they would all hang.
Far better for our Parasites if we be diverted to
“Russia Russia Russia.”.
As some so easily are..
Who is the real enemy?
We still pay income tax, a temporary revenue measure to pay for the First World War.
We now carry $9 trillion debt incurred by the useless and clueless.
We now know our God given human rights and freedoms mean nothing in this Kleptocracy.
Yet Russia is the number one enemy?
The problem we must solve before all others?
If we go to war,what exactly would Canadians be fighting for?
In a lot of ways, the Ukraine and Taiwan situation looks a lot like WW2. A land war in Europe and an island war in the Pacific.
The key is keeping it from going Thermonuclear and setting us all back to the 1920’s (AD? or BC?)
If the above is true, Ukraine will be settled by Total Russian Victory or at the Negotiating Table. We need to keep NATO United, wean Europe off of Russian Oil and Gas, and keep the Ukrainian Government in being, while we ship weapons, ammo, and training to the Ukrainian Government / Guerrilla Movement. If we arm a Guerrilla movement, Russia might be justifed in thinking it is an act of war. If Ukraine and Russia negotiate? Who knows who will be representing Russia during any Negotiations? The Russian Oligarchs might want a Western friendly leader that can get them most of their money and access back?
Taiwan is going to be a Navy War. Stop any Amphibious Invasion. Sink anything in the Taiwan Straits and maybe in Chinese Ports too. Maintain Air Superiority over Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Phillipines, Australia, and cut off China from Maritime trade. No food, NO OIL!, No raw materials. AND No Cheap Crap for US and the rest of the word. End game is either Taiwan is conquered, China agrees to stop offensive action, the free West loses faith, or the CCP loses it all. Who knows who might be leading China if they do not take Taiwan? Chairman Xi JingPing is only Chairman for Life.
Maybe Putin or Xi may go with the Samson Option and take us all with him.
The current monetary system is still run by the United States.
The infrastructure system changed to China and Russia under the radar.
When this monetary system collapses, who’s positioned to be the winners here?
Racking up debt doesn’t work after a while. It collapses into bankruptcy.
Everybody’s an expert….or so it seems.
I’m not.
All I see is hand wringing appeasement from the WH with big talk of sanctions that likely won’t take effect until the T80’s or whatever Mechanized shit the Russians are using these days, are on the Polish & Finnish borders. A US President that is for intents & purposes…. DEAD man walking with his successor seemingly on a 24/7 Peyote laughing trip.
Unreal.
Eisenhower warned us ALL not only about the Military Industrial complex, but Scientific Intellectual Technocracy as well…both of which seem to have consumed the US (and Canada).
They have not learned much from their perennial intrusions into others affairs ….something they’ve done more often than not….& failing more often than not as well.
Iran in the 50’s, Vietnam, El Salvador, Iraq, Libya, Benghazi, Afghanistan & Ukraine…and others i’m sure.
Don’t get me wrong., I have the greatest respect for the US and especially their Constitution. But some of their people…??? Not so much.
And I’m with rd on pretty much all he wrote.
This was all true and relevant UNTIL Putin ordered the tanks to cross the border.
And, until the Ukrainians actually put their money where their mouths are and started shedding their own blood for what they’d been talking about.
I voted Trump in 2016 specifically because I was convinced Hillary would lead to exactly this situation. Well, it took about 5 years extra, but here we are – and for all the blame that can be piled on the Joe Biden Puppet Management team, it was Putin and only Putin who started the killing. 2000 Americans in Sumy or similar wouldn’t be any threat to Russia. The US Embassy in Moscow is a bigger problem than that.
Now – and especially now that the Ukrainians have proven they’re willing to shoulder the burden alone for as long as they need to – there’ nothing for it but to help them kill Russians until the Russians agree to go home.
As pointed out elsewhere, long-term, this can only end in disaster for Russia. The goal was to avoid NATO expansion. This is going to convince EVERYBODY in the region to try to join NATO.
“The goal was to avoid NATO expansion. This is going to convince EVERYBODY in the region to try to join NATO.”
Only if *NATO* is responsible for defeating the Russians. Is that happening? All I hear is “plucky little Ukraine” going it alone. Who would bother joining a club that provides no benefits but endless headaches? And I wonder about those Ukrainian citizens with their freshly-issued guns going out to fight the Russians. What have they been told is going to happen? Has Zelensky told them “Just hold them off for 24 hours, rescue is coming, NATO troops are coming, all will be well”? Has he lied to them, convincing them that they help is on the way, when nothing of the sort is going to happen? What kind of man is he? If he’s in good with Biden and his sort, I don’t trust him, and I don’t believe the flattering stories about him leading the troops from the heart of Kiev, either. I’ve been burned by these lying war propaganda reports for decades now; press credibility is officially dead.
“Only if *NATO* is responsible for defeating the Russians. ”
Why? It’s not NATO’s job. Ukraine is not part of NATO.
Yet.
Assuming a Russian best-case, that they take over and put in a pro-russian puppet – five years down the road, then what? The Ukrainians are really pissed off. They will stay puppetted for as long as Russia keeps the gun to their collective head – but the moment the pressure’s off, what do you think they’re going to do?
Sweden and Finland have already been making NATOish noises since Crimea/Donbass.
The only way Russia can retain any victory gained here is by repeating Warsaw Pact style long-term occupation. They don’t have the means.
So, while everybody is distracted, pontificating of the Ukraine Kaper, what are our “rice-propelled cousins” up to? Kung Flu? What Kung Flu? Remind me again who runs the Panama Canal and San Diego. And Capetown and Trincomalee……
What are their close allies, the Iranians, up to?.
Is Vlad the Impala being out-maneuvered by Xi?
Taiwan and Israel are the prime targets.
A hint about where the Russia-Ukraine “disagreement” is going might be found in the second Chechen War which was fought over a 2 year period (1999-2000). During this time about 10,000 Russian soldiers were killed and over 30,000 Chechens died, mostly civilians. While the war only lasted 9 months, fighting continued until 2009 when the Russian-installed government stopped hunting for Chechen rebels.
To return to Ukraine one might expect another several months of fighting with a 2:1 loss ratio by the Ukrainians, mostly civilian casualties who will be directly targeted by Russian soldiers to wear down the soldiers of Ukraine. Who will win? History says the Russians, at great cost to Ukrainian civilians during a protracted incursion that will last until the coming winter. But it will end with a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War
The Obama administration’s third term may kill us all.
The fog of war – The sad fact is despite many well crafted narratives we really don’t have a clue what is the real motivations for what is happening. In general leaders have many psychopathic traits and it is nearly impossible to know the true intent and what fear drives them. One thing that is clear is that a life of “public service” leads in general to the wealth ,privileges and power that these individuals seek. Possibly Trump might be a leader who hasn’t monetarily been enriched by his venture into politics , but even that is uncertain (and they aren’t done with him). It appears to me in Canada about2/3 of people believe “freedom” is a white racist word, We have only been living under the illusion that we really are free. In the meantime everything will be geared to keeping you on the treadmill to produce wealth so those who consider themselves superior can confiscate as much as they can while getting you to comply. In many ways the general population has done to well and that is what they want to reset.
Small Dead Animals is now a vehicle for Russian propaganda.
Fascism sure is a fluid thing.
Turns out the Ukrainians care a lot more for democracy than you and your neckbeard “truckers”.
… and you’re a vehicle for numerous butt buddies. Meh.
Understanding your enemy is necessary for victory. Which is why leftists are always losing. They steal elections, but can’t run a damn thing.
Ukraine is not a democracy? The President has remained in the capital and fought with his people, including civilians/reservists. The ex-President who Zelensky beat in an election is also in the capital fighting alongside his fellow citizens. The leadership and courage of Ukraine puts us all to shame and this article is nothing but Russian propaganda.
Moral or intellectual certainty based upon an incomplete understanding of all the facts is the kind of vanity that leads to conflict.
This conflict arose from relentless stupidity of the West to give the hammer on energy to a dictatorship all in the pursuit of the Green religion. Have we learned anything from this costly mistake? We’ll see how the West now views and acts on the threat from China but I am not hopeful since already we are reading how the answer is wind and solar energy to reduce dependency on fossil fuels.
Lee Smith, highly informative as usual. Thanks for the post and link.