Pipeline capacity gets restrained, slowing growth in oil production. Pipelines get built (Enbridge Line 3 replacement, Trans Mountain Expansion, eventually) allowing for oil production to grow. Oil production will soon grow to use up all that extra capacity, and production growth will be restrained, again.
So then what? I’m not aware of ANY major new export pipelines projects being considered. After Northern Gateway, Keystone XL and Energy East being canned, who would? And after the federal government proved you could go 6x, maybe closer to 7x over budget building a pipeline they way they want it built, what idiot will try again?
The alternative will have to be crude-by-rail. Oh, lovely.
(That pipeline photos is of a tiny gathering pipeline near Estevan, not a mammoth transmission line.)
As for another fan (NOT) of crude by rail, Quick Dick McDick hauled canola recently. And sang about it. Seriously.
Remember that George Soros owns a lot of railways and railway stock.
Chris – I think you mean Warren Buffet
Yep, I have called it his rolling pipeline.
There’s the MB/SK/AB NeeStaNan Utilities Corridor proposal that I can’t see happening anytime soon. https://boereport.com/2024/03/06/mb-sk-ab-neestanan-utilities-corridor-first-nations-led-utility-corridor-is-a-21st-century-nation-building-initiative/
Expanding rail capacity is not really an option. In 10 years prior to 2012, CN and CP expanded freight trains from an average of 72 to 90 freight cars per train. The existing rail corridors into Vancouver are loaded. There’s really not much room for expansion beyond the existing load. The rail companies have pretty much maximized what can be done with highly sophisticated rail dispatch systems. Rail cars are now carrying a lot more load per axle than they did 20 years ago.
I sit at a RR crossing and count cars as there isn’t an over/underpass. Most trains for the past couple of years are pulling 160 to 180 cars.
180 car RR Crossing soundtrack :
Life Follows Art dept.
Chattanooga Choo Choo – Glenn Miller – 1941
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2aj0zhXlLA
Brian – A friend who is at another oil publication told me in 2020 or 2021 that there would a mini boom in the Canadian patch from 2022 to 2027 and that Alberta would export more oil year over year from 2022 to 2030. This was based on global analysis of downstream demand and upstream exploration patterns. So far, a fairly accurate prediction.
Funny how both the govt’s of US and Canada worked hand-in-hand to block all pipelines, almost as though they were being directed by the same people.
But of course, that would be just crazy to consider…