Economic Headwinds

So much for “normalizing” interest rates. When even the mainstream financial media is picking up on the idea that interest rates are not only going to fall, but fall quickly, you just know that a recession is baked in the cake.

Billionaire John Paulson said the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates and expects the central bank to lower them in the months ahead.

By the end of next year, “my best guesstimate would be around 3%, perhaps 2.5%” for the federal funds rate, Paulson, 68, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

20 Replies to “Economic Headwinds”

  1. So back to what they called “emergency rates” in 2008. Only 15/16 years of it. I AM SURE IT IS NOTHING!!!

    1. This is all bullshit and a shill talking his book. The FED will never cut to the extent he states unless there is blood in the streets and the economy just isn’t that bad either in Canada or the US.
      The FED wanted the economy to slow and it especially wants the US federal government to stop spending like drunken sailors on shore leave.
      ALSO THERE IS AN ELECTION IN 2 MONTHS AND DRASTIC CUTS WILL BE SEEN AS ELECTION INTERFERENCE …. AGAIN UNLESS THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREETS.

      One 1/4 point cut in Sept as telegraphed by Powell and then silent running by the FED until after Nov 5th ( I think that is the election day)

  2. Odds are that if not for the changing definition, and stat manipulation, we are already in a recession and have been for a while.

    1. Yep but because some people, the “right” people, aren’t feeling much economic pain the political class and chattering class don’t care. The ultra rich are buying new mega yachts, the rich are surfing in Fiji, the upper middle class is treading water, the middle and working class are drowning in debt.

    2. Add supercharged immigration rates in Canada to goose the gross numbers. We’ve been in a GDP per capita decline for quite some time, in no small part because the people that the Liberals have been importing in such ferocious numbers aren’t exactly India’s best and brightest.

      1. We urgently need more Uber and Skip the Dishes drivers though…they’re are the lifeblood of the economy

  3. We are all FFFFFFFFFF’D.

    Lower rates will spike inflation.

    At this point, financial disaster seems inevitable.

  4. What happens with all those mortgages that were renewed at 7 or 8 percent? Are they stuck while others get the new, lower rates?

    US here. We have 9 months to go on a 3.25% mortgage. I still don’t quite get the Canadian mortgage biz, but from what I can tell, it sucks.

    1. You can refinance, but that typically costs about 3 months of interest, which hopefully you either have, or can refinance back into the new mortgage.

      The longest term you can get is 10 years, with up to a 30 year amortization schedule. Most are usually 3 to 5 years.

  5. Inflation was largely driven be supply chain destruction reducing available goods while driving up logistical costs.

    Add increasing energy and carbon taxes and you have ready made inflation.

    Raising interest rates solved none of the above, and simply added costs to already broke consumers.

    1. You left out the most important component. The government printing money starting in early 2020, Going from $1,090,000,000,000 to a peak of $1,630,000,000,000 in May 2022, an increase of almost 50% in the M1 money supply.

      1. You can offset that by increasing productivity significantly – but they killed productivity – so a doubly bad.
        And I wonder how much of that money stayed in the Canadian economy.

    2. Inflation of he money supply created by the government. This is why things cost more; well, that and additional taxation.

    3. Raising interest rates increases borrowing costs, which leads to fewer loans and less debt leveraging. This effectively allows the value creation in the economy to catch up with the creation of money. This leaves less money to pursue goods and value.

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