When the planet won’t follow your models, model a new planet.
Our new paper published in WIRES Climate Change questions the logic and the opportunity costs of building a digital replica of the planet — inclusive of its human population. These-much hyped projects — such as Destination Earth in Europe (DestinE), and similar initiatives in the US and elsewhere — are rapidly being implemented with no serious discussion or debate of how these efforts look through the lenses of system ecology, sociology and political sciences. Better and more equitable use can be made of scarce research resources.[…]
Models exist in a state of exception, having appropriated the academic prestige of mathematics and physics while at the same time escaping the critical gaze of philosophers and social scientists, including to some extent that of the sociologists of quantification. We reached this conclusion by comparing work on mathematical models with what sociologists say about quantification in statistics, economics, algorithms and artificial intelligence.
According to our analysis, modellers have acquired a central position at the heart of the climate change discussion, and make use of this privileged state to increase their political standing and funding, putting themselves at the helm of the climate change narratives and making climate change itself into an all-encompassing meta-narrative, subsuming all ailments of humans and their planet, inclusive of wars, authoritarianism, migrations, and various forms of aggression to planetary ecosystems.
The project of digital twins represents the pinnacle of this movement.
First, let’s see them accurately model 1 year of a classroom of 30 second-graders.
Then maybe they can give modelling a year of Chicago a try.
Baby steps.
Been working with models for over 25 years in detailed engineering projects. They are always wrong and anyone with any experience knows that. They can be useful tools to help spot potential issues, plan some developments, etc but they are not the gold standard of what will be.
As an example, it is well known that thermal modellers for engineering developments show their experience via the number of nodes on their thermal model. The more nodes, the more junior the thermal engineer – their view being that if they add more detail then the accuracy improves. It never does. Experienced thermal engineers know when they have enough nodes and stop. They also know the limits of their thermal model and when analysing more is just dimishing returns.
Scientists are some of the worst at dealing with models, they rarely build something based on them. They write papers saying any errors are due to insufficient investigation and ask for more money. They then go back, maybe collect more data, maybe, but always create a bigger, more detailed model. They move error but never seem to be able to remove error
And then model the behaviour of a gaggle of cats!
What assumptions are baked into the model? how do you prove that those assumptions are correct? are you using raw data or adjusted data? how big are your boxes? why are you hiding that?
Good lord, The Science™ has corrupted science so much that sociologists are making more sense than STEMers.
Modeling, is were you adjust your results to suit your ideological belief.
Are you telling me Millie the Model was a Marxist? Big if true.
Great … now EVERYONE with a giant ego and an axe to grind will get their biases loaded into the new “cyber model” of The Earth. What could possibly go wrong? Well … if AI is any indicator … the new Model of Earth will become a shitshow of disinformation and propaganda under the umbrella of “science”.
Covid, the ultimate model. Prove me wrong.
Socialism fails because there is a dearth of knowledge and information signaling that continuously exists in the price system of the free market. This kind of modelling will no doubt be pushed by central planners and used to attempt to micro-manage every aspect of existence of the masses and just like its cruder and morally repugnant (socialist) predecessor will not only fail in terms of replacing the market but will inflict widespread coercion and misery. Tools like these are catalysts for totalitarianism. Think of the climate industrial complex and expand it one hundred fold. A state that isn’t confined to police, military and courts will morph to being involved in everything.
It appears to be English.. Like most post sanity topics our woke grifters talk about.. I have no idea, but then again I’m not in the money.. Not in the fame.. Not in the cult.. $$$