Historically, a nation has about three years to win a war or at least demonstrate that victory is imminent. If they don’t, public support starts to wane dramatically. The window for success is closing for the Ukraine, and the cracks are already starting to show.
The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office has opened 51,000 cases of desertion through the first nine months of 2024. The number of soldiers abandoning their posts is likely to double last year’s total.
Kiev has struggled to fill its ranks with fresh soldiers, leading Ukraine to drop its conscription age from 27 to 25. As Kiev is still facing manpower shortages, American politicians are pushing Ukraine to drop draft age to 18.
Ukraine has also resorted to allowing prisoners to leave jail if they join the military
Does the 3 year rule apply to Putin’s Russia? They are said to be having difficulties too – except they have recourse to North Korea for troops.
I think the rule may apply to western countries and that is too bad for Ukraine as they will suffer from the withdrawal of Western aid. And the Ukrainians sense that now.
And wasn’t the conventional wisdom that the war would be over in a few days. It is well past that now.
Don’t forget Dennis, that the Ukrainians have been fighting Russia in the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts since 2014. Did the clock start then? If not, why not? The only difference is the amount of Western aid and Western commitment.
The Russians were successful then because they saw how politically weak the West had become.
Look, nobody wants this war to continue. It has been a disaster for both Ukraine and Russia.
The USA and UK are obligated to support and defend Ukraine. They pressured Ukraine into giving the Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia.
Russia promised not to attack Ukraine.
The USA and UK gave security assurances to Ukraine.
Ukraine must hold until the Russian military collapses.
Western politicians and the military industrial complex would like the war to continue forever if it could. With never ending spending and kickbacks, with no loss of local life, why would they want it to end. Keep that economy rolling, no matter what the cost in foreign lives.
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Look, nobody wants this war to continue. It has been a disaster for both Ukraine and Russia.
The USA and UK are obligated to support and defend Ukraine. They pressured Ukraine into giving the Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia.
Russia promised not to attack Ukraine.
The USA and UK gave security assurances to Ukraine.”
That’s a pretty good summary of one side of the story. Now do the other.
“Ukraine must hold until the Russian military collapses.”
I see. Forget what I just said about the other side of the story…I thought you were a serious poster. My bad.
Russia’s military is disintegrating. It has no remaining stocks of modern weapons. It’s been reduced to dragging tanks out of WW2 museums for combat use. It’s now hiring North Korean mercenaries along with its collection of unreliables out of the ‘stans.
At this point, it’s not clear that either side can go the distance. Russia has no allies of any real strength, as China’s economy is in recession.
“They pressured Ukraine into giving the Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia.”
Entirely right, Grey. That was the disaster. If Ukraine had retained even some of its share of Soviet nuclear weaponry, this war since 2014 would never have been launched. Ukraine’s mistake was in taking George Bush and Billy-Bob Clinton at their word.
What exactly is the penalty for desertion if they are convicted? being conscripted into penal legions and sent to the front?
The deserter in question decided to broadcast his “escape” on facebook, and stayed in western ukraine, and the police caught up to him:
https://archive.is/D2ytp
The West will only give the ukes enough support to keep the war going. They could care less if the ukes win, as long as they keep the ruskies occupied.
Many western countries and their ‘leaders’ benefited from Ukrainian corruption, and probably still are through arms sales. When the time came to help their friend, the West walked.
Without significant input from the west the ukes are doomed. My guess is it ends after Jan 20th. New boundaries will be drawn and Ukraine will be much diminished. Then the war goes underground and the throat slitting ramps up.
– Historically, a nation has about three years to win a war or at least demonstrate that victory is imminent. If they don’t, public support starts to wane dramatically.
There are so many exceptions to this (e.g. Britain in two world wars last century) that the statement in basically rubbish. Nations fighting an existential defensive war can be pretty tenacious. Most Ukrainian men know that losing to Russia doesn’t bring them peace; they’ll simply be used as cannon fodder in emboldened Russia’s next “special military operation”.
Nahhhhh … the Daily Mail and Keir Starmer’s office says Russia is losing … dramatically. And Jake Sullivan says so too! All Ukraine needs is America’s top weapons, top advisors, and top soldiers … and they can take back the territory they hated anyway.