West Texas Intermediate is at its lowest point in over a year. This, despite the Ukraine war still going on, and supertankers being targeted in the Red Sea.
Oil prices are tanking…
If you weren’t paying attention, they’re going through the floor in recent days.
Did you know the war in Ukraine is over?
That’s how oil markets are acting. All geopolitical risk is gone, as oil prices are at their lowest point since last December for WTI, and February, 2021, for WCS.
Spend your Moe Money wisely, because you won’t likely see that again.
Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2018
Last month I wrote this on the price of oil:
A correction is now overdue and I suspect we see $65 before a significant move above $70. The only bearish signal is US+Canada production growth.
The Brent front month corrected to ~$63 and now stands on $64.37. Art Berman has an interesting article Oil Price Crossroad recognising that we are now in the territory of market indecision. The IEA OMR is confusing saying both “rebounding US production underpinned non-OPEC output growth” and “Non-OPEC output dropped by 175 kb/d in January” (I think the former is YoY and the latter MoM). Below the fold I simply try to look at the bare facts.
Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2018
Oil Price Scenario for 2018
Putting it all together, I see a Brent oil price of at least $80 / bbl one year from now.
Oh Shiny Oil Price
There are several other factors discussed below which suggest that the oil price rally may continue.
Oil Production Vital Statistics
oil production vital statistics